Research
Revision requested
"Inefficient procurement in times of pandemia", revise and resubmit Economic Journal (with J. Gallego and M. Prem)
Published and forthcoming
"The rise and persistence of illegal crops: evidence from a naive policy announcement", forthcoming The Review of Economics and Statistics (with M. Prem and D. Mejía)
"The Human Capital Peace Dividend" forthcoming The Journal of Human Resources (with O. Namen and M. Prem)
"Brothers or Invaders? How Crisis-driven Migrants Shape Voting Behavior" forthcoming Journal of Development Economics (with S. Rozo). (Replication material)
"Self-selection into corruption: Evidence from the lab", forthcoming Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization (with. P. Brassiolo, R. Estrada and G. Fajardo)
"Selective Civilian Targeting: The Unintended Consequences of Partial Peace", forthcoming Quarterly Journal of Political Science (with M. Prem, A. Rivera and D. Romero)
(2021) "Measuring the size and growth of cities using nighttime light", Journal of Urban Economics Volume 125 (September) (with R. Ch. and D. Martin). (Replication material and online appendix)
(2021) "Citizens from 13 countries share similar preferences for COVID-19 vaccine allocation priorities", Proceedings of the National Academy of Science September 21, 2021 118 (38) e2026382118 (Full list of authors following the link)
(2021) "The Real Winner's Curse", American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 65(1): 52-68 (with L. Fergusson, P. Querubín and N. Ruiz) (Online appendix)
(2020) "The Perils of Top-down State Building: Evidence from Colombia's False Positives", American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Vol. 12(3): 1-43 (with D. Acemoglu, L. Fergusson. J. Robinson and D. Romero)
(2020) "End-of-Conflict Deforestation: Evidence from Colombia’s Peace Agreement", World Development, Vol. 129: 1048-52 (with M. Prem and S. Saavedra). (Replication data and code)
(2018) "Endogenous Taxation in Ongoing Internal Conflict: The Case of Colombia", American Political Science Review, Vol 112(4): 996-1015 (with R. Ch, A. Steele and J. Shapiro)
(2013) "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia" Review of Economic Studies Vol. 80 (4): 1384-1421 (with O.Dube). (Replication material and online appendix)
(2017) "Does the Unemployment Benefit Institution affects the Productivity of Workers? Evidence from the field", Management Science Vol. 63(11), p. 3691-3707 (with M. Blanco and P. Dalton). (Replication material and online appendix)
(2016) "The Need for Enemies", Economic Journal Vol. 126 (593): 1018-1054 (with L. Fergusson, J. Robinson and R. Torvik). (Replication material)
(2019) "Inequality, Crime, and the Long Run Legacy of Slavery" Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol. 159: 539-552 (with P. Buonanno).
(2016) "Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence from the Crash of Ponzi Schemes", Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Vol. 131: 263-275 (with. D. Cortés and J. Santamaría).
(2017) "The Crime Kuznets Curve", Journal of Quantitative Criminology Vol. 33(4): 753-782 (with P. Buonanno and L. Fergusson).
(2015) "True Believers, Deserters, and Traitors: Who Leaves Insurgent Groups and Why" Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 59(5): 794-823 (with B. Oppenheim, A. Steele and M. Weintraub).
(2018) "Beyond Divide and Rule: Weak Dictators, Natural Resources and Civil Conflict", European Journal of Political Economy Vol. 53: 205-221 (with G. De Luca and P. Sekeris)
(2018) "Colombia: Democracy, Violence, and the Peacebuilding Challenge", Conflict Management and Peace Science Vol. 35(6): 581-586 (with T. Flores)
(2016) "Colombia: Dealing with Conservation", Science Letters Vol. 354(6309): 190 (with N. Clerici, J. Richardson, F. Escobedo, J. Posada, M. Linares y A. Sanchez)
(click here for additional -older- publications and for publications in Spanish)
Working Papers
"Landmines: the local effects of demining" submitted (with M. Prem and M. Purroy)
"Peaceful Entry: Entrepreneurship Dynamics during Colombia's Peace Agreement" submitted (with M. Prem, C. Bernal and M. Ospina)
"How peace saves lives: Evidence from Colombia" submitted (with S. Perilla, M. Prem and M. Purroy)
"Colombia: Democratic but violent?" (with L. Fergusson)
"Unbundling the Relationship between Economic Shocks and Crime" (with E. Ferraz and R. Soares)
"The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement with the FARC" submitted (with M. Guerra, M. Prem and P. Rodríguez)
"The perils of using remote sensing data: the case of forest cover", (with L. Fergusson and S. Saavedra)
"Sunlight Disinfects? Free Media in Weak Democracies" (with L. Fergusson and M. Vela)
"The environmental impact of civil conflict: The deforestation effect of paramilitary expansion in Colombia" (with L. Fergusson and D. Romero)
"Don't Make War, Make Elections: Franchise Extension and Violence in XIX-Century Colombia" (with L. Fergusson)
"Rural Property Tax Revenue in the Face of Economic Concentration and Political Competition: Evidence from Colombia" (with J. Villaveces)