"Inference Based on Time-Varying SVARs Identified with Sign Restrictions" forthcoming Review of Economic Studies with Jonas E. Arias (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia), Minchul Shin (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia), and Daniel F. Waggoner (Emory)
"Uniform Priors for Impulse Responses" forthcoming Econometrica with Jonas E. Arias (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) and Daniel F. Waggoner (Emory)
"Twin default crises” forthcoming Journal of Finance with Caterina Mendicino (ECB), Kalin Nikolov (ECB), Javier Suarez (CEMFI), and Dominik Supera (Wharton School)
"Dynamic Perturbation” forthcoming Review to Economic Studies with Alessandro Mennuni (University of Southampton) and Serhiy Stepanchuk (University of Southampton)
“Estimating Hysteresis Effects” forthcoming American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics with Francesco Furlanetto (Bank of Norway), Antoine Lepetit (Board of Governors), Ørjan Robstad (Bank of Norway) and Pal Ulvedal (Bank of Norway)
Macroeconomic Forecasting and Variable Ordering in Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models (2023) Journal of Econometrics, 235, pp. 1054-1086, with Jonas E. Arias (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) and Minchul Shin (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
The Causal Effects of Lockdown Policies on Health and Macroeconomic Outcomes (2023) American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 15, pp. 287-319 with Jonas E. Arias (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia), Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania), and Minchul Shin (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
Inference in Bayesian Proxy-SVARs (2021) Journal of Econometrics, 225, pp. 88-106 with Jonas E. Arias (Federal Reserve Board) and Daniel F. Waggoner (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)
Structural Scenario Analysis with SVARs (2021) Journal of Monetary Economics, 117, pp. 798-815, with Juan Antolín-Díaz (Fulcrum Asset Management) and Ivan Petrella (University of Warwick)
Financial and Fiscal Shocks in the Great Recession and Recovery of the Spanish Economy (2020) European Economic Review, 127, with J. Boscá (Universidad de Valencia and FEDEA), R. Domenech (BBVA Research and Universidad de Valencia), J. Ferri (Universidad de Valencia and FEDEA), and R. Méndez (BBVA Research)
The Systematic Component of Monetary Policy in SVARs: An Agnostic Identification Procedure (2019) Journal of Monetary Economics, 101, pp. 1-13 with Jonas E. Arias (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) and Dario Caldara (Federal Reserve Board)
Narrative Sign Restrictions (2018) American Economic Review, 108, pp. 2802-29 with Juan Antolin-Diaz (Fulcrum Asset Management)
Inference Based on SVARs Identified with Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications (2018) Econometrica, 86, pp. 685-720, with Jonas E. Arias (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) and Daniel F. Waggoner (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)
The Pruned State-Space System for Non-Linear DSGE Models: Theory and Empirical Applications (2018) Review of Economic Studies, 85, pp. 1-49, with Martin Andreasen (Aarhaus University) and Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania)
Precautionary Saving and Aggregate Demand (2017) Quantitative Economics, 8, pp. 435-478, with Edouard Challe (CNRS, Ecole Polytechnique, CREST and Banque de France), Julien Matheron (Banque de France), and Xavier Ragot (CNRS and Paris School of Economics)
Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models (2016) Quantitative Economics, 7, pp. 637-669, with Andrew Foerster (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City), Daniel F. Waggoner (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta) and Tao Zha (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Emory University)
Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity (2015) American Economic Review, 105, pp. 3352-3384, with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania), Pablo Guerrón-Quintana (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia), and Keith Kuester (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
Nonlinear Adventures at the Zero Lower Bound (2015) Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 57, pp. 182-204, with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania), Grey Gordon (University of Pennsylvania), and Pablo Guerrón-Quintana (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
Can International Macroeconomic Models Explain Low-Frequency Movements of Real Exchange Rates? (2015) Journal of International Economics, 96, pp. 199-211 with Pau Rabanal (IMF)
Estimating Dynamic Equilibrium Models with Stochastic Volatility (2015) Journal of Econometrics, 185, pp. 216-229 with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania) and Pablo Guerrón-Quintana (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
Supply-Side Policies and the Zero Lower Bound (2014) IMF Economic Review, 62, pp. 248-260 with Pablo Guerrón-Quintana (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) and Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania)
The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a DSGE Model with Recursive Preferences (2012) Journal of Monetary Economics, 59, pp. 634-
648 with Jules H. van Binsbergen (Stanford University), Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania), and Ralph S.J. Koijen (University of Chicago).
Computing DSGE Models with Recursive Preferences (2012) Review of Economic Dynamics, 15, pp.188-206 with Dario Caldara (IIES), Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania), and Yao Wen (University of Pennsylvania)
Cointegrated TFP Processes and International Business Cycles (2011) Journal of Monetary Economics, 58, pp. 156-171 with Pau Rabanal (IMF) and Vicente Tuesta (Centrum Catolica and Prima AFP)
Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks (2011) American Economic Review, 101, pp. 2530-2561 with Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania), Pablo Guerrón-Quintana (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia), and Martín Uribe (Columbia University)
Tapping the Supercomputer under Your Desk: Solving Dynamic Equilibrium Models with Graphics Processors (2011) Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 35, pp.386-393 with Eric M. Aldrich (Duke University), Jesus Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania), and A. Ron Gallant (Duke University and New York University)
Investment Specific Technology Shocks and International Business Cycles: An Empirical Assessment (2011) Review of Economic Dynamics, 14, pp. 136-155 with Federico Mandelman (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta), Pau Rabanal (IMF), and Diego Vilán (University of Southern California)
Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference (2010) Review of Economic Studies, 77, pp. 665-696 with Daniel F. Waggoner (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta) and Tao Zha (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Emory University)
Medea: A DSGE Model for the Spanish Economy (2010) SERIES, 1, pp. 175–243 with Pablo Burriel (Banco de España) and Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania)
Comparing New Keynesian Models in the Euro Area: A Bayesian Approach (2008) with Pau Rabanal (IMF), Spanish Economic Review, 10, pp. 23-40
Estimating Macroeconomic Models: A Likelihood Approach (2007) Review of Economic Studies, 74, pp. 1059-1087 with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania).
A, B, C’s (and D)’s for Understanding VARs (2007) American Economic Review, 97, pp. 1021-1026, with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania), Thomas Sargent (NYU and Hoover Institution), and Mark Watson (Princeton University)
On the Solution of the Growth Model with Investment-Specific Technological Change (2007) Applied Economic Letters, 14, 549-554, with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania)
Comparing Solution Methods for Dynamic Equilibrim Economies (2006) Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 30, pp. 2447-2508, with S. Boragan Aruoba (University of Maryland) and Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania)
Solving DSGE Models with Perturbation Methods and a Change of Variables (2006) Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 30, pp. 2509-2531, with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania)
Convergence Properties of the Likelihood of Computed Dynamic Models (2006) Econometrica, 74, pp 93-119, with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania) and Manuel Santos (University of Miami)
Comparing New Keynesian Models of the Business Cycle: A Bayesian Approach (2005) Journal of Monetary Economics, 52, pp. 1151-1166, with Pau Rabanal (IMF)
Estimating Dynamic Equilibrium Economies: Linear versus Nonlinear Likelihood (2005) Journal of Applied Econometrics, 20, pp. 891-910, with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania)
Comparing Dynamic Equilibrium Economies to Data: A Bayesian Approach (2004) Journal of Econometrics, 123, pp. 153-187, with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania)