Assistant professor at the Department of Economics at Bocconi University.
Affiliate at BIDSA, CEPR, IGIER, IZA, LEAP and VfS, Research fellow at CReAM.
Research interests: migration, labour economics, political economy, development economics.
Curriculum Vitae Research Profile
Contact:
email: josephsimon.goerlach@unibocconi.it
You will find me at Bocconi University in Room 5-E1-12, Via Roentgen 1, 20136 Milano, Italy
Working Papers:
Despite recent advances, no general methods for computing bargaining power in non-cooperative games exist. We propose a number of axioms such a measure should satisfy and show that they characterise a unique function. The principle underlying this measure is that the influence of a player can be assessed according to how much changes in this player's preferences affect outcomes. Considering specific classes of games, our approach nests existing measures of power. We present applications to cartel formation, the non-cooperative model of the household, and legislative bargaining.
Accounting for in-place adaptation to weather shocks drastically changes policy implications for climate change-related migration. Besides sending migrants, Kenyan households react to shocks by transiting to less climate-sensitive occupations and by changing livestock species. These in-place adaptations shed light on the mechanisms through which common policies weaken migration in response to weather shocks. Better infrastructure eases occupational transitions, thereby reducing alternative adjustments such as migration and livestock composition. Transfers received under a randomised income support programme instead cushion consumption losses and decrease adaptation pressure, including migration. A model of joint migration, occupation, and livestock choices reveals important dynamics. Whilst transition to non-agricultural occupations initially serves as a substitute for migration, it also acts as a steppingstone for later migration increases. At the same cost, infrastructure reduces migration in the short run by more than cash transfers, whereas the reverse is true in the longer run.
“Asymmetric Shocks and Heterogeneous Worker Mobility”, with Riccardo Franceschin (Volkswagen Foundation funded).
If workers are complementary in production, heterogeneity in their mobility reduces the shock absorption capacity of migration. We document that more educated workers are more mobile between European countries, and calibrate a dynamic equilibrium model in which workers differ in skill and migration preference. Migration on average offsets one fifth of the welfare loss following a negative shock in one country, with gains accruing largely to high-skilled workers. Low-skilled workers benefit marginally, and sometimes earn lower real wages than without migration. We examine other integration margins and find that the implemented ones (migration and monetary integration) primarily favor high-skilled workers.
“Skills and Substitutability: A New View on Immigrant Assimilation”, with Pietro Galeone (reject&resubmit at Journal of Human Resources).
Immigrants' assimilation as they adapt to the host country is often measured by wage growth relative to native workers. This confounds two opposing forces: an adaptation of immigrants' skills that raises their productivity, and an increasing substitutability with earlier immigrants and natives, which puts downward pressure on wages. Based on a labor demand framework, we decompose wage growth into these components, and estimate the model's structural parameters using U.S. Census data. Since cohort sizes may be endogenous to wage growth through immigration and emigration choices, we instrument migrant numbers with variation in origin country earnings and relative purchasing power. Results show that both skill growth and substitutability progress as migrants assimilate to the host country, that skill growth strongly exceeds wage growth, and that a small positive short-run effect of immigration on the average wage of natives quickly dissipates as immigrants become more substitutable to natives.
Publications:
"Temporary Migration for Long-term Investment." Journal of Development Economics (forthcoming), with Laurent Bossavie, Çağlar Özden and He Wang.
“Terrorism and Education: Evidence from Instrumental-Variables Estimators.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 39.5 (2024): pp 906-925, with Marco Alfano.
“Capital Markets, Temporary Migration and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Bangladesh.” World Development 176 (2024): pp 106505, with Laurent Bossavie, Çağlar Özden and He Wang. Appendix
“The Selection of Return Migrants: Some Evidence and a Model-based Analysis.” In: Robert Sauer: World Scientific Encyclopedia of Global Migration (Volume 3, Chapter 4), World Scientific Publishers (2024), with Filippo Palomba.
“Terrorism, media coverage and education: Evidence from al-Shabaab attacks in Kenya.” Journal of the European Economic Association 21.2 (2023): pp 727-763, with Marco Alfano. Appendix
“Borrowing Constraints and the Dynamics of Return and Repeat Migration.” Journal of Labor Economics 41.1 (2023): pp 205-243. Appendix
“The Dynamics of Return Migration, Human Capital Accumulation, and Wage Assimilation.” Review of Economic Studies 89.6 (2022): pp 2841–2871, with Jérôme Adda and Christian Dustmann. Appendix
“Spillovers and Strategic Interaction in Immigration Policies.” Journal of Economic Geography 21.2 (2021): pp 287-315, with Nicolas Motz.
“Estimating Immigrant Earnings Profiles when Migrations Are Temporary.” Labour Economics 41 (2016): pp 1-8, with Christian Dustmann.
“The Economics of Temporary Migrations.” Journal of Economic Literature 54.1 (2016): pp 98-136, with Christian Dustmann.
“Selective Out-Migration and the Estimation of Immigrants’ Earnings Profiles.” In: Barry R. Chiswick and Paul W. Miller (editors), Handbook of the Economics of International Migration 1A, North Holland (2015): pp 489-533, with Christian Dustmann.
“Western Representations of Fascist Influences on Islamist Thought.” In: Jörg Feuchter, Friedhelm Hoffmann and Bee Yun (editors), Cultural Transfers in Dispute - Representations in Asia, Europe and the Arab World, Campus (2011): pp 149-166.
Work in Progress:
“The Fiscal Impact of Immigration: A Life-cycle Analysis”, with Christian Dustmann, Tommaso Frattini and Chiara Giannetto.
"Matching in Elderly Care." (PNRR funded)
“Spatial Political Sorting on the Neighborhood Level”, with Felix Iglhaut.
“Bargaining Power in EU Law-Making”, with Nicolas Motz.
Policy reports, non-academic articles etc:
From migrant worker to owner: When temporary migration is used to start one's own business - VoxEU (08/03/2024), with Laurent Bossavie, Çağlar Özden and He Wang. Re-published on editor's initiative on VoxDev (09/04/2024.
Predicting terror attacks using insurgent networks and revenue streams - VoxDev (20/02/2024).
Migration as a Step Towards Opening a Business - #LEAPTalks/Bocconi Knowledge (30/06/2023). Italian version.
Immigrants need certainties - Interview for Via Sarfatti 25 (28/04/2023).
Temporary migration entails benefits, but also costs, for sending and receiving countries - IZA World of Labor 2022, with Katarina Kuske.
Al-Shabaab: sensational media reports about Kenyan terror attacks keep kids out of school - The Conversation (24/11/2022), with Marco Alfano.
Access to media amplifies negative effects of terrorism on school enrolment in Kenya - EurekAlert! (02/11/2022), with Marco Alfano.
How certainty helps immigrants integrate and contribute more to the local economy - The Conversation (20/06/2022). Translated to Portuguese for Interesse Nacional.
Media coverage of terrorism / La cobertura mediática del terrorismo / Couverture médiatique du terrorisme - globaldev.blog (16/11/2020), with Marco Alfano.
Immigration: time to shift the debate - viaSarfatti25 Videos (15/03/2018).
Alla buona integrazione servono tempi certi - viaSarfatti25 Numero 5 - anno XII (Maggio 2017), p 33.
What do we know about migration? Informing the debate Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration: Policy briefing (2014), with Marco Alfano, Michele Battisti, Charles Clarke, Thomas Cornelissen, Christian Dustmann, Francesco Fasani, Tommaso Frattini, Luigi Minale, Anna Okatenko, Ian Preston and Jonathan Wadsworth.
Teaching
I currently teach courses in Structural Econometrics (PhD) and Microeconomics (BSc).
In the past, I also taught a PhD course on Dynamic Panel Data Analysis (slides) and undergraduate courses in Econometrics.
For MSc students, at some point I prepared this mini-illustration of structural estimation (Matlab).