Research
Peer-Reviewed Publications:
Hungry for Success? SNAP Timing, High Stakes Exam Performance, and College Attendance, with Timothy Bond, Analisa Packham and Jonathan Smith (2021) American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 14 (4): 51-79.
Abstract: Monthly government transfer programs create cycles of consumption that track the timing of benefit receipt. In this paper, we exploit state-level variation in the staggered timing of nutritional assistance benefit issuance across households to analyze how this monthly cyclicality in food availability affects academic achievement. Using individual-level score data from a large national college admissions exam in the United States linked to national college enrollment data, we find that taking this high-stakes exam in the last two weeks of the SNAP benefit cycle reduces test scores and lowers the probability of attending a 4-year college for low-income high school students.
Media Coverage: Education Week, New York Times
COVID-19 and Crime: Effects of Stay-at-Home Orders on Domestic Violence, with Lindsey Rose Bullinger and Analisa Packham (2021) American Journal of Health Economics, 7 (3): 249-280.
Abstract: COVID-19 has led to an abrupt change in time spent at home, with many cities and states implementing official stay-at-home (SAH), or "lockdown" policies. Using cell phone block-level activity data and administrative 911 and crime data from the city of Chicago, we estimate the effects of the Illinois governor's SAH order on calls for police service, crimes recorded by police, and arrests made relating to domestic violence. We find that the SAH order announcement increased time spent at home, leading to a decrease in total calls for police service, but a subsequent increase in domestic violence-related calls for police service. Effects are larger in areas with a high proportion of renters and married households with children, for whom staying at home may be particularly challenging. These effects for domestic violence calls, however, are at odds with reported domestic-related crimes and arrests by police officers; we find that official reports and arrests for domestic violence crimes fell by 8.7 percent and 26.3 percent, respectively. Trends in reported domestic violence crimes mirror drops in total reported crimes; however, declines for domestic violence crimes are an order of magnitude smaller than the decline in other non-violent crime rates.
Media Coverage: Washington Examiner, The Conversation
SNAP Schedules and Domestic Violence, with Analisa Packham (2021) Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 40 (2): 412-452.
Abstract: This paper exploits a policy change in Illinois that altered monthly nutritional assistance benefits dates to estimate the impact of in‐kind benefit receipt on domestic violence. We find that issuing SNAP benefits on days other than the first of the month increases domestic crimes. On average, we find the shifting benefit dates increases domestic abuse by 6.9 percent and child maltreatment by 30.0 percent. We posit that these effects are driven by increases in opportunities for conflict or changes in drug use.
Media Coverage: JPAM's Closer Look Podcast
Housing Vouchers Income Shocks and Crime: Evidence from a Lottery, with Vijetha Koppa (2020) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 177: 475-493.
Abstract: Employing exogenous variation in randomized wait-list positions assigned using a lottery, we identify the causal effects of Section 8 housing vouchers on arrests of adult household heads. Based on administrative records from Houston, we find that voucher receipt has no effect on the likelihood of arrest. Even among the groups with the highest propensities for crime, the vouchers have no impact. Income effects for these adults are particularly large relative to neighborhood effects, leading us to believe that this large income shock does little to alleviate financial pressures that could lead to crime.
Media Coverage: NPR's Hidden Brain (Morning Edition)
SNAP Benefits and Crime: Evidence from Changing Disbursement Schedules, with Analisa Packham (2019) Review of Economics and Statistics, 101 (2): 310-325.
Abstract: In this paper, we study the effects of the timing of nutritional aid disbursement on crime, using two main sources of variation: (i) a policy change in Illinois that substantially increased the number of SNAP distribution days, and (ii) an existing Indiana policy that issues SNAP benefits by last name. We find that staggering SNAP benefits leads to large reductions in crime and theft at grocery stores by 17.5 percent and 20.9 percent, respectively. Findings also show that theft decreases in the second and third weeks following receipt, but increases in the last week of the benefit cycle due to resource constraints.
Media Coverage: Vox's "The Weeds" Podcast, Business Insider, "Probable Causation" Podcast, Marginal Revolution, Washington Post
Keep the Kids Inside: Juvenile Curfews, and Urban Gun Crime, with Jennifer L. Doleac (2018) Review of Economics and Statistics, 100 (4): 609-618
Abstract: Gun violence is an important problem across the United States. However, the impact of government policies on gunfire has been difficult to test due to limited and low-quality data. This paper uses new, more accurate data on gunfire (generated by ShotSpotter audio sensors) to measure the effects of juvenile curfews in Washington, DC. Using variation in the hours of the DC curfew, we find that this policy increases gunfire incidents by 150% during marginal hours. In contrast, voluntarily-reported crime measures (such as 911 calls) suggest that the curfew decreases gun violence, likely because of confounding effects on reporting rates.
Media Coverage: Newsweek, Vox, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, The Guardian, The Marshall Project
Estimating the Effects of Police Technology Using Quasi-Experimental Methods, (2017) Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, 8: 360-368.
Abstract: Law enforcement agencies are adopting a variety of new surveillance technologies at a fast pace. These technologies could have substantial benefits in terms of public safety, but, for many of them, their ability to reduce crime is unknown. Although a small experimental literature addresses some of these technologies, many of the implementations have been too small to provide an accurate measurement of their potential. In this paper, I explore the advantages and make general suggestions about the use of quasi-experimental methodologies in estimating the public safety benefits of police technology. I also consider the specific case of license plate readers and provide some examples of difference-in-differences approaches that could be used to study their efficacy.
The Effects of State-Mandated Abstinence-Based Sex Education on Teen Health Outcomes, with Analisa Packham (2017), Health Econ., 26: 403–420.
Abstract: In 2011, the United States had the second highest teen birth rate of any developed nation, according to the World Bank. In an effort to lower teen pregnancy rates, several states have enacted policies requiring abstinence-based sex education. In this study, we utilize a difference-in-differences research design to analyze the causal effects of state-level sex education policies from 2000-2011 on various teen sexual health outcomes. We find that state-level abstinence education mandates have no effect on teen birth rates or abortion rates, although we find that state-level policies may affect teen sexually transmitted disease rates in some states.
Media Coverage: Wikipedia
Other Publications:
The Geography, Incidence, and Underreporting of Gun Violence: New Evidence Using ShotSpotter Data with Jennifer L. Doleac (2016), Brookings Research Paper
Abstract: This paper provides new evidence on the extent of underreporting of gun violence. Criminal activity is often selectively underreported – that is, underreported in a non-random manner. This can make it difficult to understand public safety problems and devise effective policy strategies to address them. However, new surveillance technologies are facilitating the collection of more accurate data on crime. In this paper, we describe data on gunfire incidents, recorded using a tool called ShotSpotter. We compare those data with previously-available data on gun violence (reported crime and 911 calls) to estimate baseline correlations between these measures as well as the causal effect of gunfire incidents on reporting. Using data from Washington, DC, and Oakland, CA, we find that only 12% of gunfire incidents result in a 911 call to report gunshots, and only 2-7% of incidents result in a reported assault with a dangerous weapon. These extremely low reporting rates have important implications for research on gun violence. The characteristics and research potential of ShotSpotter data are relevant to surveillance data more broadly; while such data have not yet been exploited by social scientists, they could be extremely valuable for crime research and policy.
Media Coverage: Daily Mail, 538
Working Papers:
Optimal Punishments and Recidivism: Evidence from Sex Offender Registries
To estimate the causal effect of longer sex offender registry periods, I use a regression discontinuity design to exploit variation induced by the fact that small differences in the date of initial registry meant that some individuals were automatically removed from the registry after 10 years, while others stayed on it. Results indicate that there is little evidence that an increase in registry length decreases the likelihood that a registered individual will be convicted of additional sex crimes as intended. These individuals required to stay registered continue to be convicted of violations related to the registry itself, costing them and the state considerably.
What Happened to Rosie? with Andrew J. Rettenmaier, PERC Working Paper #1501
Abstract: This study identifies women whose wartime work patterns exhibit those often associated with the iconic “Rosie the Riveter.” The work patterns come from the 1973 Exact Match file that links Current Population Survey data to Social Security earnings records. These data tie wartime work to outcomes up three decades later. Relative to women who did not work during or immediately after the war, Rosies had greater labor force attachment later in life, but had similar earnings. Their husbands’ earnings were also higher. The Rosies’ outcomes were less distinguishable from the women who worked during and/or after the war.