Research

Working Papers

“Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks,” (with Ricardo Nunes and Ali Ozdagli) Updated Apr 2024.

“The Dollar During the Great Recession: The Information Channel of US Monetary Policy and the Flight to Safety” (with Vania Stavrakeva), Dec 2023. Conditionally accepted, Journal of Finance.

“FOMC Communication and Interest Rate Sensitivity to News,” Jan 2019.

“Uncertainty and the Signaling Channel of Monetary Policy,” Apr 2015.

Publications

“A Fundamental Connection: Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Expectations” (with Vania Stavrakeva), Updated Apr 2023. Accepted, Review of Economics and Statistics. Boston Fed 2020 working paper available here. 

“Inflation Levels and (In)attention” (with Anat Bracha), Dec 2023. Accepted, The Review of Economic Studies. Boston Fed 2019 working paper available here. 

“The mitigating effect of masks on the spread of Covid-19” (with Daniel Cooper, Vaishali Garga, and María J. Luengo-Prado), 2023, Economics & Human Biology 48, Article No. 101195.

“News-Driven Uncertainty Fluctuations” (with Dongho Song), 2022. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics , 1-15.  Online Appendix

“Tariff  Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy” (with Alberto Cavallo, Gita Gopinath, and Brent Neiman), 2020,  American Economic Review: Insights, 3 (1): 19-34.  Featured in WSJ Real Time Economics, The New York Times, The Financial Times, IMF Blog, HBS Working Knowledge, CNN (Jake Tapper's State of the Union), BBC News, and Forbes.

"Comment on “The long-run information effect of Central Bank communication” by Stephen Hansen, Michael McMahon, and Matthew Tong," 2019, Journal of Monetary Economics, 108(C): 203-210. 

Works in Progress

“The Effect of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Foreign Exchange Markets” (with Vania Stavrakeva)

“Currency Risk Premia and Value-At-Risk” (with Vania Stavrakeva)

Older Working Papers

“Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy” (with Vania Stavrakeva), Oct 2015. Previously circulated as “Short Run Exchange Rates and Yields: The Importance of Monetary Policy Shocks”.