Research

PEER REVIEW PUBLICATIONS 

ARTICLES ON LABOUR ECONOMICS

“Teachers' preferences for incentives to work in disadvantaged districts: A discrete choice experiment in Costa Rica” Joint with V. Lentini (University of Costa Rica) and G. Giménez (University of Zaragoza) 

Economic Analysis and Policy, 2024 (On-line first: 04/2024). JCR 2023: Q1, IF: 7.9 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2024.04.014) 

Abstract: Designing incentives to attract the best teachers to low-performing schools has become a fundamental objective in educational equity. We analyze the case of Costa Rica, where the most experienced teachers usually choose to work in the country's Central Region. We carried out a discrete choice experiment with a sample of 400 teachers in 52 schools, aiming to elicit their preferences to work at schools located in disadvantaged regions. The findings suggest that monetary incentives are the most effective to increase the probability of teachers accepting contracts in disadvantaged locations. In particular, economic bonuses show marginal effects between 8% and 22%. On the other hand, non-monetary incentives (working with highly qualified peers, direct access to supervisors of educational programs, and provision of material resources) are found to be important complements in the design of incentive packages. Combining monetary and non-monetary incentives, we obtain an acceptance rate to move to disadvantaged regions of more than 30% of the teachers. These incentive designs are especially relevant in the educational systems of developing countries, which face high internal inequalities and strong financial constraints. 

“Youth unemployment and stigmatization over the business cycle in Europe” Joint with S. Ayllón (University of Girona) and A. Plum (Auckland University of Technology)

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2022 (On-line first: 05/2021). JCR 2022: Q2, IF: 2.5 (https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12445) 

Top 10 most-cited paper published in OBES between 01/2022-12/2023

Abstract: This paper studies the dynamics of the scarring effect of youth unemployment over the business cycle in 12 European countries. On the one hand, we analyse differences associated with the negative effect of past unemployment experiences on future labour market status. And, on the other hand, we consider the potential stigmatization of prospective young workers — that is, the extent to which employers are more reluctant to hire individuals with a history of unemployment. Our results are based on data from the EU-SILC for the period 2004 to 2015 and provide support in favour of a significant scarring effect of unemployment among youths that is highly heterogeneous across the countries under analysis and that increased substantially during the Great Recession. In contrast, the evidence of stigma effects was found to be rather weak.

“The Returns to UK Degrees for Foreign-Educated Graduates” Joint with Y. Zhu (University of Dundee) 

British Educational Research Journal, 2018. JCR 2018: Q3, IF: 1.364 (https://doi.org/10.1002/berj.3441)

Abstract: We estimate the returns to obtaining UK Higher Degrees, for foreign graduates who migrated to the UK in their 20s. Accounting for direct measures of foreign and UK qualifications and country-of-origin fixed effects, we find substantial wage premia of obtaining UK (Higher) Degrees for both men and women, in the order of 20%. However, there is strong evidence that the effect of the high returns is driven by immigrants from countries where English is not a dominant language. Moreover, returns to UK (Higher) Degrees are more pronounced for graduates from low HDI/GDP countries suggesting an important role for the incompatibility of education and skills between home and destination countries. We further examine the robustness of our results by using a partial identification method and our findings suggest that the extent of selection on unobservables required to eliminate a positive treatment effect is too large to be plausible, especially for men.

ARTICLES ON EDUCATION ECONOMICS

“Educational inequality and the poverty trap in teacher recruitment” Joint with V. Lentini (University of Costa Rica) and G. Giménez (University of Zaragoza) 

Journal of Development Studies, 2023 (On-line first: 02/2023). JCR 2022: Q2, IF: 1.8 (https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2023.2172330)

Abstract: The regional concentration of poverty and the resulting disparities in living conditions create situations where educational inequalities are intensified. These adverse environments could lead teachers to refuse to work in disadvantaged locations that are characterized by high incidences of poverty and low-performing students. In this paper, we estimate how poverty in the districts where the schools are situated influences the probability that teachers accept a job offer in Costa Rica. Working with data on contract offers acceptance or rejection is a methodological novelty that makes it possible to dissociate students’ poverty from the poverty of the schools’ location. The estimation of a three‐level hierarchical model allows us to deal with aggregation bias and unobserved heterogeneity. The results show evidence that district poverty is a key determinant of teachers’ rejection of offers. Although the study uses data from Costa Rica, the results indicate more generally, how educational inequity can perpetuate poverty.

“The impact of secondary education choices on mathematical performance in university: the role of non-cognitive skills” , joint with C. Arias (ULE) and J. M. García (JCYL)  

Mathematics, 2021. JCR 2021: Q1, IF: 2.592 (https://doi.org/10.3390/math9212744)

Abstract: (1) Background: this study evaluates the most relevant factors affecting the performance in mathematics of university undergraduates. Precisely, the mathematical background of students. Spanish secondary education provides an opportunity to develop this analysis since students can choose between two secondary education tracks with different mathematical content and depth. (2) Methods: a survey was conducted covering personal characteristics, socioeconomic status, academic choices and academic achievement as well as a set of questions aimed to uncover attitudes towards mathematics. Students that show preferences regarding mathematics are prone to choose the track with more mathematical content, creating a potential confusion between training and attitudes towards mathematics. We propose an index of non- cognitive skills related to mathematics to account for this problem. (3) Results: prior background in mathematics plays a role in mathematical performance at university even after correcting for non-cognitive skills related to mathematics. The effects are heterogeneous with respect to gender. (4) Conclusions: choosing a more mathematical-oriented itinerary in secondary education seems to give an edge to students. Our results shed light on the implications associated with the decision of secondary school track choice made by students. Furthermore, they are meant to serve as a guide to improve the design of remedial courses.

"Effects of Grade Retention Policies: A Literature Review of Empirical Studies Applying Causal Inference"  Joint with M. Mediavilla (UV), Á. Choi (UB) and M. Gil (UAM)

Journal of Economic Surveys, 2021 (On-line first: 12/2020). JCR 2021: Q1, IF: 4.142 (https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12406)

Abstract: The identification of the causal effects of grade retention policies is of enormous relevance for researchers and policy-makers alike. Taking advantage of the availability of more detailed longitudinal datasets, researchers have been able to apply different identification strategies that address the classical problems of selection bias and unobserved heterogeneity that have plagued previous studies on the effect of retention. We present a systematic literature review of empirical studies aiming to unveil the causal effects of retention. This study underlines the need to consider and evaluate different kinds of grade retention polices as their effects vary depending on several dimensions (such as timing of the policy, comparison groups, length of the effects or institutional settings). According to the results of our review, we conclude that grade retention is unlikely to be an efficient policy as the costs associated to the policy can easily outweigh the potential (weak) benefits of retention. It is therefore necessary to consider alternative policies to retention, or policies that can be used in combination with it, in order to enhance the performance of low achievers, in particular those students at risk characterised by a low ability profile. 

“The evolution of educational inequalities in Spain: dynamic evidence from repeated cross-sections”  Joint with Á. Choi (UB), M. Gil (UAM) and M. Mediavilla (UV)

Social Indicators Research, 2018 (On-line first: 07/2017). JCR 2018: Q2, IF: 1.703 (https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-017-1701-6)

Abstract: A lack of longitudinal data prevents many countries from estimating dynamic models and, thus, from obtaining valuable evidence for policymaking in the field of education. This is the case of Spain, where recent education reforms have targeted secondary schools, but their design has been based on incomplete information regarding the evolution of student performance and far from robust evidence concerning just when educational inequalities are generated. This paper addresses the absence of longitudinal data required for performing such analyses by using a dynamic model with repeated cross-sectional data. We are able to link the reading competencies of students from the same cohort that participated in two international assessments at different ages (9/10 and 15/16) and so identify when educational gaps in terms of gender, socio-economic status and place of birth emerge. Our results suggest that educational inequalities in Spain originate in lower educational levels. These results stress the importance of early intervention for improving performance during the compulsory education and for tackling educational inequalities.

[Media Coverage: Fundación Ramón Areces Blog, NeG Blog, N-IUSSP ]

"Predictors and Effects of Grade Repetition in Spain” Joint with Á. Choi (UB), M. Gil (UAM) and M. Mediavilla (UV)

Revista de Economía Mundial/World Economy Journal, 2018. JCR 2018: Q4, IF: 0.130 (Open Access)

Abstract: About a third of Spanish students will have repeated at least one school year by the time they reach 16. It is claimed that alternative policies to grade repetition should seek to provide individualised treatment and ensure early intervention. In Spain, while there is empirical evidence in support of the benefits of the former, there is little for the latter. Here, we fill this gap by combining data from two international assessments. We identify the profile of students who a) are at greatest risk of grade retention and b) are most negatively affected by the policy. Our results confirm the importance of early intervention and the need to rethink grade repetition as a one-size-fits-all policy.

“What Determines Post-Compulsory Academic Studies? Evidence from the Longitudinal Survey of Young People in England”  Joint with W. Collier (UKC) and Y. Zhu (University of Dundee) 

Applied Economics Letters, 2018 (On-line first: 07/2017). JCR 2018: Q4, IF: 0.591 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2017.1352069)

Abstract: We show that educational attainments at the end of the compulsory schooling stage are powerful predictors for post-compulsory educational choices in England. In particular, the single academic success indicator of achieving the Government’s gold standard in GCSE is able to predict virtually all the observed incidences of post-compulsory studies for academic qualifications. Notwithstanding, Two-Stage Least Squares estimation which exploits variations in school starting age induced by school entry rules suggests that the least-squares effect of achieving the gold standard in GCSEs on studying for academic qualifications is due to ability bias or reverse causation.

ARTICLES ON ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS

"The effect of decoupling on water resources: Insights from European international trade"  Joint with A. Serrano (Unizar) 

Journal of Environmental Management, 2021 (On-line first: 11/2020). JCR 2021: Q1, IF: 8.910 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111606)

Abstract: The concern on the effects and potential consequences of the displacements of water resources through international trade has increased in the last decades. Today, water scarcity is considered one of the main problems in the world. Despite large advances on its quantification and understanding, further research on the anthropogenic determinants of the exchanges of water embodied in international trade is necessary. Our study aims to shed light on the trajectories and explaining factors of water exchanges in the European Union. In particular, we analyse how the 2003 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform, which decoupled direct subsidies from production, affected European water consumption through agri-food exports. First, our methodology relies on the bottom-up approach to estimate European long-term exports of virtual water from 1995 to 2013. Second, we assess the effect of the reform on water consumption using panel data analysis in a trade gravity framework. Our main results show that the 2003 reform boosted extra European virtual water exports. We also observe a large heterogeneity in our sample, pointing to Mediterranean areas as the most affected by the policy reorientation. Spain, one of the most water scarce countries in the European Union, is essential to explain this link. 

“Production and consumption-based water dynamics: A longitudinal analysis for the EU27”  Joint with A. Serrano (Unizar) 

Science of The Total Environment, 2017. JCR 2017: Q1, IF: 4.610 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.123)

Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between economic development and water pressures using a global Multiregional Input-Output model (MRIO) dataset that takes into account the increasingly connected global supply chains underlying the economic systems. In particular, we analyse differences in water indicator outcomes by income level among European Union countries (EU27) from 1995 to 2008, focusing specifically on production and consumption-based water metrics for the member states. We use panel fixed effects regressions to study the dynamics of adjustment of water resources alongside controlling for individual country heterogeneity. Our main results indicate that the effects differ substantially depending on the approach used for measurement, especially when we conditioned on the country economic development, indicating opposite trajectories of water consumption and per capita gross domestic product (GDP). Furthermore, the analysis of the main components associated to water indicators highlight the role of water embodied in trade flows as the transmission mechanisms of the main effects. In particular, our estimates suggest that the growth path followed by the most developed areas in the EU27 is based on the externalisation of the environmental burden over the less developed European partners, and external developing countries. On the policy front, our findings call for the implementation of integrated water resources management, technological specific policies and the corresponding environmental regulation to combine the conservation of water ecosystems and sustainable economic growth at the national, supranational and global levels.

RESEARCH PAPERS

“Temporal Heterogeneity of Family Background on Educational Attainment: Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey” (DP, Studies in Economics, School of Economics, University of Kent)

Abstract: In this paper we use unique retrospective family background data from Wave 13 of the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) on different birth cohorts to analyse the relevance of family background, in particular parental education, and gender on differential educational achievement. We find parents’ education attainments to be strong predictors of the education of their offspring. In particular, maternal education is the main determinant on the decision of whether stay-on beyond compulsory education. Our results are robust to the inclusion of a large set of control variables, including household income. A second research question addressed in the paper investigates whether the large expansion of the UK educational system during the last decades has concurred with enhanced relative educational opportunities for children of parents with low educational background. The analysis reveals that the relevance of parental education over time becomes stronger in terms of achieving higher educational levels, in particular university degree. However, there are significant dissimilarities with respect to gender differences; in particular we observe a positive secular trend in female education attainment associated to maternal education.

“Socio-Economic Differences in Higher Education Participation in the UK“ (DP, Studies in Economics, School of Economics, University of Kent)

Abstract: This paper is based on the first seven waves of the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE) that allow us to follow a recent cohort of pupils from age 14 right through to Higher Education (HE) participation at age 19/20. Therefore, our approach involves using rich individual data that have been linked to school level information and geographic markers to examine some of the factors determining HE participation for individuals who were in Year 11 in 2005/06 and who could therefore first enter HE in 2008/2009. Our results indicate that differences in HE participation (including studying a science degree and attending prestigious universities) between students coming from advantaged and disadvantage backgrounds are large and that much of the socio-economic gap in HE participation rates is driven by particularly low participation rates for students at the bottom of the income distribution. However, when we introduce controls for prior educational attainment, student’s expectations towards university, academic results during secondary schooling and type of school attended these gaps in participation are substantially reduced. Our analysis suggests that one of the main challenges to widening participation for pupils from poorer socio-economic backgrounds is early policy interventions at, say, age 11 as they are likely to have an important effect in HE participation. Also, relatively later intervention (at ages 14 to 16) aiming at improving educational aspirations of teenagers and targeting better GCSEs results will further close the gap.

“Double toil and trouble: grade retention and academic performance in Spain”, joint with Á. Choi (UB), M. Gil (UAM) and M. Mediavilla (UV). (IEB WP-2016/7, Institute of Economics, Barcelona)

Abstract: Most recent available evidence points to the scarce efficacy of grade retention for levelling the performance of students. Yet, the fact that many countries persist in applying this measure reflects longstanding traditions, cultural factors and social beliefs as well, it would seem, the lack of robust empirical evidence to do otherwise. We contribute to the literature by analysing the impact of grade retention on the reading competencies of lower secondary school students in Spain, a country where almost one out of every three students will repeat at least one grade by age 16. We overcome the absence of longitudinal data by creating a pseudo-panel that combines microdata from two international assessments, PIRLS and PISA. Having controlled for reverse causality, our study confirms the negative and heterogeneous impact of grade retention. This paper provides new evidence of the pressing need to rethink this educational policy, and our results highlight the importance of early intervention as opposed to only employing remedial measures.

"Political and Religious Polarization: Estimates for 81 Countries", joint with S. Bandyopadhyay (QMUL), J. Esteban (IAE-CSIC & Barcelona GSE), E. Morales (Princeton University) and I. Permanyer (CED). (Manuscript Institute for Economic Analysis, IAE-CSIC, Barcelona, 2008)

Abstract: Using the questionnaire responses to the World Values Survey 2000-2001, we aggregate a selected set of answers and for each respondent we obtain an index of political location and of religiosity. We furnish a detailed description of the methodology followed. These indices provide synthetic micro information on political and religious attitudes at the individual level for 81 countries. We present some illustrations of the potential use of such individualized indices and specifically we compute the indices of polarization and inequality displayed by the distributions of political and religious attitudes and show that the two rankings are uncorrelated.