Publications

[On Google Scholar] [On ORCID]

Pre-prints

1. Williams T, McCaw JM, Osborne JM, Spatial information allows inference of the prevalence of direct cell-to-cell viral infection, arXiv:2310.19481 [q-bio.QM] (October 2023) [url]

2. Eales O, Shearer F, McCaw JM, How immunity shapes the long-term dynamics of seasonal influenza, medRxiv:23295244 (September 2023) [url]

3. McCulloch K, Hedtke SM, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Basanez M-G, Walker M, Kuesel AC, Grant WN, Impact of human movement between hypo- and hyperendemic areas on sustainability of elimination of Onchocerca volvulus transmission, medRxiv:23284850 (January 2023) [url]

4. Shearer FM, McCaw JM, Ryan G, Hao T, Tierney NJ, Lydeamore M, Ward K, Ellis S, Wood J, McVernon J, Golding N, Estimating the impact of test-trace-isolate-quarantine systems on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Australia, medRxiv:23284209 (January 2023) [url]

5. Ryan GE, Shearer FM, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Golding N, Estimating measures to reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia to guide a ‘National Plan’ to reopening, medRxiv:22282869 (December 2022) [url]

6. Alahakoon P, McCaw JM, Taylor PG, Use of clustering to improve estimation of epidemic model parameters under a Bayesian hierarchical framework, medRxiv:22283266  (December 2022) [url]

7. Mehra S, Taylor PG, McCaw JM, Flegg JA, A hybrid transmission model for Plasmodium vivax accounting for superinfection, immunity and the hypnozoite reservoir,  arXiv:2208.10403 [q-bio.PE] (August 2022) [url]

8. Zarebski AE, Moss R, McCaw JM, A sub-exponential branching process to study early epidemic dynamics with application to Ebola, bioRxiv: 797878  (2019) [doi]

Journal articles

Accepted

1. Mehra S, Taylor PG, McCaw JM, Flegg JA, A hybrid transmission model for Plasmodium vivax accounting for superinfection, immunity and the hypnozoite reservoir, Journal of Mathematical Biology (accepted 26 March 2024)

2. Shearer FM, McCaw JM, Ryan G, Hao T, Tierney NJ, Lydeamore M, Ward K, Ellis S, Wood J, McVernon J, Golding N, Estimating the impact of test-trace-isolate-quarantine systems on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Australia, Epidemics (accepted 15 March 2024)

3. Ryan GE, Shearer FM, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Golding N, Estimating measures to reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia to guide a ‘National Plan’ to reopening, Epidemics (accepted 8 March 2024)

2024

1. Roberts MG, Hickson RI, McCaw JM, How immune dynamics shape multi-season epidemics: a continuous-discrete model in one dimensional antigenic space, Journal of Mathematical Biology 88(4): 1–23 (2024) [doi]

2. Cao P, Kho S, Grigg MJ, Barber BE, Piera KA, William T, Poespoprodjo JR, Jang IK, Simpson JA, McCaw JM, Anstey NM, McCarthy JS, Britton S, Characterisation of Plasmodium vivax lactate  dehydrogenase dynamics in P. vivax infections, Communications Biology 7(1): 355 (2024) [doi]

3. Anwar MN, Smith L, Devine A, Mehra S, Walker CR, Ivory E, Conway E, Mueller I, McCaw JM, Flegg JA, Hickson RI, Mathematical models of Plasmodium vivax transmission: a scoping review, PLoS Computational Biology 20(3): e1011931 (2024) [doi]

4. Eales O, Plank MJ, Cowling BJ, Howden BP, Kucharski AJ, Sullivan SG, Vandemaele K, Viboud C, Riley S, McCaw JM, Shearer FM, Key challenges for respiratory virus surveillance while transitioning out of acute phase of COVID-19 pandemic, Emerging Infectious Diseases 30(2): e230768 (2024) [doi]

5. Mehra S, McCaw JM, Taylor PG, Superinfection and the hypnozoite reservoir for Plasmodium vivax: a general framework, Journal of Mathematical Biology 88(1): 7 (2024) [doi]

2023

1. Bolton KJ, McCaw JM, Dafilis MP, McVernon J, Heffernnan JM, Seasonality as a driver of pH1N12009 influenza vaccination campaign impact, Epidemics 45: 100730 (2023) [doi]

2. Alahakoon P, Taylor PG, McCaw JM, How effective were Australian Quarantine Stations in mitigating transmission aboard ships during the influenza pandemic of 1918–19?, PLoS Computational Biology 19(11): e1011656 (2023) [doi]

3. Zachreson C, Tobin R, Szanyi J, Walker C, Cromer D, Shearer F, Conway E, Ryan G, Cheng A, McCaw JM, Geard N, Individual variation in vaccine immune response can produce bimodal distributions of protection, Vaccine 41(45): 6630–6636 (2023) [doi]

4. Alahakoon P, McCaw JM, Taylor PG, Improving estimates of waning immunity rates in stochastic SIRS models with a hierarchical framework, Infectious Disease Modelling 8(4): 1127–1137 (2023) [doi]

5. Conway E, Walker C, Baker C, Lydeamore M, Ryan GE, Campbell T, Miller JC, Yeung M, Kabashima G, Wood J, Rebuli N, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Golding N, Price DJ, Shearer FM, COVID-19 vaccine coverage targets to inform reopening plans in a low incidence setting, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 290: 20231437 (2023) [doi]

6. McCaw JM, Plank MJ, The role of the mathematical sciences in supporting the COVID-19 response in Australia and New Zealand, ANZIAM J 64: 315–337 (2023) [doi]

7. Walker CR, Hickson RI, Chang E, Ngor P, Sovannaroth S, Simpson JA, Price DJ, McCaw JM, Price RN, Flegg JA, Devine A, A model for malaria treatment evaluation in the presence of multiple species, Epidemics 44: 100687 (2023) [doi]

8. Williams T, McCaw JM, Osborne JM, Choice of spatial discretisation influences the progression of viral infection within multicellular tissues, Journal of Theoretical Biology 573: 111592 (2023) [doi]

9. Moss R, Price DJ, Golding N, Dawson P, McVernon J, Hyndman RJ, Shearer FM, McCaw JM, Forecasting COVID-19 activity in Australia to support pandemic response: May to October 2020, Scientific Reports 13: 8763 (2023) [doi]

10. Abell IR, McCaw JM, Baker CM, Understanding the impact of disease and vaccine mechanisms on the importance of optimal vaccine allocation, Infectious Disease Modelling 8(2): 539–550 (2023) [doi]

11. Araujo R, Brumley D, Cursons J, Day K, Faria M, Flegg JA, Germano D, Hunt H, Hunter P, Jenner A, Johnston S, McCaw JM, Maini P, Miller C, Muskovic W, Osborne J, Pan M, Rajagopal V, Shahidi N, Siekmann I, Stumpf M, Zanca A, Frontiers of Mathematical Biology: A workshop honouring Professor Edmund Crampin, Mathematical Biosciences 359: 109007 (2023) [doi]

12. Anwar MN, Hickson RI, Mehra S, Price DJ, McCaw JM, Flegg MB, Flegg JA, Optimal interruption of P. vivax malaria transmission using mass drug administration, Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 85: 43 (2023) [doi]

13. Li K, McCaw JM, Cao P, Enhanced viral infectivity and reduced interferon production are associated with high pathogenicity for influenza viruses, PLoS Computational Biology, 19(2): e1010886 (2023) [doi]

14. Golding N, Price DJ, Ryan G, McVernon J, McCaw JM, Shearer FM, A modelling approach to estimate the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 during periods of high, low and zero case incidence, eLife 12: e78089 (2023) [doi]

15. Tobin RJ, Wood JG, Jayasundara D, Sara G, Walker J, Martin GE, McCaw JM, Shearer FM, Price DJ, Real-time analysis of hospital length of stay in a mixed Omicron and Delta epidemic in New South Wales, Australia, BMC Infectious Diseases 23: 28 (2023) [doi]

2022

1. Sun X, McCaw JM, Cao P, Stochastic modeling of within-host dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum, Mathematics 10(21): 4057 (2022) [doi]

2. Anwar, MN, Hickson RI, Mehra S, McCaw JM, Flegg JA, A multiscale mathematical model of Plasmodium vivax transmission, Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 84: 81 (2022) [doi]

3. Zachreson C, Shearer FM, Price DJ, Lydeamore MJ, McVernon J, McCaw JM, Geard N, COVID-19 in low-tolerance border quarantine systems: impact of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, Science Advances 8(14): eabm3624 (2022) [doi]

4. Shearer FM, Walker J, Tellioglu N, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Black A, Geard N, Rapid assessment of the risk of SARS-CoV-2 importation: case study and lessons learned, Epidemics 38: 100549 (2022) [doi]

5. Baker CM, Campbell PT, Chades I, Dean AJ, Hester SM, Holdan MH, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Moss R, Shearer FM, Possingham HP, From climate change to pandemics: decision science can help scientists have impact, Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 10: 792749 (2022) [doi]

6. Alahakoon P, McCaw JM, Taylor PG, Estimation of the probability of epidemic fade-out from multiple outbreak data, Epidemics 38: 100539 (2022) [doi]

7. Mehra S, Stadler E, Khoury D, McCaw JM, Flegg JA, Hypnozoite dynamics for Plasmodium vivax malaria: the epidemiological effects of radical cure, Journal of Theoretical Biology 537: 111014 (2022) [doi]

2021

1. Shearer FM, Moss R, Price DJ, Zarebski AE, Ballard PG, McVernon J, Ross JV, McCaw JM, Development of an influenza pandemic decision support tool linking situational analytics to national response policy, Epidemics 36: 100478 (2021) [doi]

2. Zaloumis SG, Whyte JM, Tarning J, Krishna S, McCaw JM, Cao P, White MT, Dini S, Fowkes FJI, Maude RJ, Kremsner P, Dondorp A, Price RN, White NJ, Simpson JA, Development and validation of an in silico decision-tool to guide optimisation of intravenous artesunate dosing regimens for severe falciparum malaria patients, Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy 65(6): e02346–20 (2021) [doi]

3. Li K, Cao P, McCaw JM, Modelling the effect of MUC1 on influenza virus infection kinetics and macrophage dynamics, Viruses 13: 850 (2021) [doi]

4. Mehra S, McCaw JM, Flegg MB, Taylor PG, Flegg JA, Antibody dynamics for Plasmodium vivax malaria: a mathematical model, Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 83(1): 1–27 (2021) [doi]

5. Fielding J, Sullivan SG, Beard F, Macartney K, Williams J, Dawson A, Gilbert G, Massey P, Crooks K, Moss R, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Constructing an ethical framework for priority allocation of pandemic influenza vaccines, Vaccine 39(5): 797–804 (2020) [doi]

6. Li K, McCaw JM, Cao P, Modelling within-host macrophage dynamics in influenza virus infection, Journal of Theoretial Biology 508: 110492 (2021) [doi]

2020

1. Moss R, Wood J, Brown D, Shearer F, Black AJ, Glass K, Cheng AC, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Coronavirus disease model to inform transmission-reducing measures and health system preparedness, Australia, Emerging Infectious Diseases 26(12): 2844 (2020) [doi]

2. Khoury DS, Cao P, Zaloumis SG, Davenport MP, and The Interdisciplinary Approach to Malaria Consortium (Cromer D, McCaw JM, Simpson JA), Artemisinin resistance and the unique selection pressure of a short-acting antimalarial, Trends in Parasitology 36(11): 884–887 (2020) [doi]

3. Lydeamore MJ, Campbell PT, Price DJ, Wu Y, Marcato AJ, Cuningham W, Carapetis JR, Andrews RM, McDonald MI, McVernon J, Tong SYC, McCaw JM, Estimation of the force of infection and infectious period of skin sores in remote Australian communities using interval-censored data, PLoS Computational Biology 16(10): e1007838 (2020) [doi]

4. Thompson RN, Hollingsworth TD, Isham V, Arribas-Bel D, Ashby B, Britton T, Challenor P, Chappell LHK, Clapham H, Cunniffe NJ, Dawid AP, Donnelly CA, Eggo R, Funk S, Gilbert N, Gog JR, Glendinning P, Hart WS, Heesterbeek H, House T, Keeling M, Kiss IZ, Kretzschmar M, Lloyd AL, McBryde ES, McCaw JM, Miller JC, McKinley TJ, Morris M, O'Neill PD, Pearson CAB, Parag KV, Pellis L, Pulliam JRC, Ross JV, Tildesley MJ, Tomba GS, Silverman BW, Struchiner CJ, Trapman P, Webb CR, Mollison D, Restif O, Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies, Royal Society Proceedings B 287(1932): 20201405 (2020) [doi]

5. Price DJ, Shearer FM, Meehan MT, McBryde E, Moss R, Golding N, Conway EJ, Dawson P, Cromer D, Wood JG, Abbott S, McVernon J, McCaw JM, Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic, eLife 9: e58785 (2020) [doi]

6. Rogerson SJ, Beeson JG, Laman M, Poespoprodjo JR, William T, Simpson JA, Price RN, and the ACREME Investigators (Anstey N, Fowkes F, McCarthy J, McCaw JM, Mueller I, Gething P}, Identifying and combating the impacts of COVID-19 on malaria, BMC Medicine 18: 239 (2020) [doi]

7. Alahmadi A, Belet S, Black A, Cromer D, Flegg JA, House T, Jayasundara P, Keith JM, McCaw JM, Moss R, Ross JV, Shearer FM, Thein S, Tun STT, Walker J, White L, Whyte JM, Yan AWC, Zarebski AE, Influencing public health policy with data-informed mathematical models of infectious diseases: Recent developments and new challenges, Epidemics 32: 100393 (2020) [doi]

8. Khoury DS, Zaloumis SG, Grigg MJ, Haque A, Davenport MP, and The Interdisciplinary Approaches to Malaria Consortium (Cromer D, Rebelo M, Cao P, McCaw JM, Simpson JA, Flegg JA, Wilson DW, Anstey NM, McCarthy JS), Malaria parasite clearance: What are we really measuring?, Trends in Parasitology 36(5): 413–426 (2020) [doi]

9. Biggerstaff M, Dahlgren FS, Fitzner J, George D, Hammond A, Hall I, Haw D, Imai N, Johansson M, Kramer S, McCaw JM, Moss R, Pebody R, Read JM, Reed C, Reich NG, Riley S, Vandemaele K, Viboud C, Wu JT, Coordinating the real-time use of global influenza activity data for better public health planning, Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 14(2): 105–110 (2020) [doi]

10. Mehra S, McCaw JM, Flegg MB, Taylor PG, Flegg J, An activation-clearance model for Plasmodium vivax malaria, Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 82: 32 (2020) [doi]

11. Shearer FM, Moss R, McVernon J, Ross JV, McCaw JM, Infectious disease pandemic planning and response: incorporating decision analysis, PLoS Medicine 17(1): e1003018 (2020) [doi]

2019

1. Cao P, Collins KA, Zaloumis S, Wattanakul T, Tarning J, Simpson JA, McCarthy JS, McCaw JM, Modelling the population dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes in humans during malaria infection, eLife 8: e49058 (2019) [doi]

2. Moss R, Zarebski AE, Dawson P, Franklin LJ, Birrell FA, McCaw JM, Anatomy of a seasonal influenza epidemic forecast, Communicable Diseases Intelligence 43: 1–14 (2019) [doi]

3. Roberts M, Hickson R, McCaw JM, Talarmain L, A simple influenza model with complicated dynamics, Journal of Mathematical Biology 78(3): 607–624 (2019) [doi]

4. Lydeamore M, Campbell PT, Regan DG, Tong S, Andrews R, Steer AC, Romani L, Kaldor J, McVernon J, McCaw JM, A biological model of scabies infection dynamics and treatment informs mass drug administration strategies to increase the likelihood of elimination, Mathematical Biosciences 309: 167–173 (2019) [doi]

5. Moss R, Zarebski AE, Carlson SJ, McCaw JM, Accounting for healthcare-seeking behaviours and testing practices in real-time influenza forecasts, Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease 4(1): 12 (2019) [doi]

6. Yan AWC, Zaloumis SG, Simpson JA, McCaw JM, Sequential infection experiments for quantifying innate and adaptive immunity during influenza infection, PLoS Computational Biology 15(1): e1006568 (2019) [doi]

2018

1. Doan TN, Cao P, Emeto TI, McCaw JM, McBryde ES, Predicting the outcomes of new short-course regimens for multi-drug resistant tuberculosis using intrahost and pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling, Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy 62(12): e01487–18 (2018) [doi]

2. Zaloumis S, Cao P, Dini S, Davenport M, Cromer D, Khoury D, Fowkes F, McCaw JM, Simpson JA, In silico investigation of the decline in clinical efficacy of artemisinin combination therapies due to increasing artemisinin and partner drug resistance, Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy 62(12): e01292–18 (2018) [doi]

3. Farrukee, R, Zarebski Ae, McCaw JM, Bloom J, Reading P, Hurt A, Characterization of influenza B virus variants with reduced neuraminidase inhibitor susceptibility, Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy 62(11): e01081–18 (2018) [doi]

4. Dini S, Zaloumis S, Cao P, Price RN, Fowkes FJI, McCaw JM, Simpson JA, Investigating the efficacy of triple artemisinin-based combination therapies (TACTs) for treating Plasmodium falciparum malaria patients using mathematical modelling, Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy 62(11): e01068–18 (2018) [doi]

5. Yan ACW, Black AJ, McCaw JM, Rebuli N, Ross JV, Swan AJ, Hickson RI, The distribution of the time taken for an epidemic to spread between communities, Mathematical Biosciences 303: 139–147 (2018) [doi]

6. Khoury DS, Aogo R, Randriafanomezantsoa-Radohery G, McCaw JM, Simpson JA, McCarthy JS, Haque A, Cromer D, Davenport MP, Within-host modelling of blood-stage malaria, Immunological Reviews 285: 168–193 (2018) [doi]

7. Lydeamore M, Campbell PT, Cuningham W, Andrews RM, Kearns T, Clucas D, Gundjirryirr Dhurrkay R, Carapetis J, Tong SYC, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Calculation of the age of first infection for skin sores and scabies in five remote communities in northern Australia, Epidemiology and Infection 146(9): 1194–1201 (2018) [doi]

8. Chan KF, Carolan LA, Korenkov D, Druce J, McCaw JM, Reading PC, Barr IG, Laurie KL, Investigating viral interference between influenza A virus and human respiratory syncytial virus in a ferret model of infection, Journal of Infectious Diseases 218(3): 406–417 (2018) [doi]

9. Leung T, Campbell PT, Hughes BD, Frascoli F, McCaw JM, Infection-acquired versus vaccine-acquired immunity in an SIRWS model, Infectious Disease Modelling 3: 118–135 (2018) [doi]

10. Wang Z, Zhu L, Nguyen THO, Wan Y, Sant S, Quinones-Parra SM, Crawford J, Eltahla AA, Rizzetto S, Bull RA, Qiu C, Koutsakos M, Bridie Clemens E, Loh L, Zhu L, Chen T, Liu L, Cao P, Ren Y, Kedzierski L, Kotsimbos TC, McCaw JM, La Gruta NL, Turner SJ, Cheng AC, Luciani F, Zhang X, Doherty PC, Thomas PG, Xu J, Kedzierska K, Prolonged persistence of clonally diverse CD38+HLA-DR+CD8+ T cells during fatal H7N9 disease, Nature Communications 9: 824 (2018) [doi]

11. Moss R, Fielding JE, Franklin LJ, Kelly HA, Stephen N, McVernon J, Dawson P, McCaw JM, Epidemic forecasts as a tool for public health: interpretation and (re)calibration, Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health 42(1): 69–76 (2018) [doi]

12. Laurie KL, Horman W, Carolan LA, Chan KF, Layton D, Bean A, Vijaykrishna D, Reading P, McCaw JM, Barr IG , Evidence for viral interference and cross-reactive protective immunity between influenza B virus lineages, Journal of Infectious Diseases 217(4): 548–559 (2018) [doi]

2017

1. Cao P, Klonis N, Zaloumis S, Dogovski C, Xie SC, Saralamba S, White LJ, Fowkes FJI, Tilley L, Simpson JA, McCaw JM, A dynamic stress model explains the delayed drug effect in artemisinin treatment of Plasmodium falciparum, Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy 61(12): e00618–17 (2017) [doi]

2. Cao P, McCaw JM, The mechanisms for within-host influenza virus control affect model-based assessment and prediction of antiviral treatment, Viruses 9(8): 197 (2017) [doi]

3. Cao P, Klonis N, Zaloumis S, Khoury S, Cromer D, Davenport MP, Tilley L, Simpson JA, McCaw JM, A mechanistic model quantifies artemisinin-induced parasite growth retardation in blood-stage Plasmodium falciparum infection, Journal of Theoretical Biology 430: 117–127 (2017) [doi]

4. Black AJ, Geard N, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Ross JV, Characterising pandemic severity and transmissibility from data collected during First Few Hundred studies, Epidemics 19: 61–73 (2017) [doi]

5. Pearce D, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Mathews JD, Influenza as a trigger for cardiovascular disease: effects of serotype, subtype and geographic location, Environmental Research 156: 688–696 (2017) [doi]

6. Zarebski AE, Dawson P, McCaw JM, Moss R, Model selection for seasonal influenza forecasting, Infectious Disease Modelling 2: 56–70 (2017) [doi]

7. Villanueva-Cabezas JP, Campbell PT, McCaw JM, Durr PA, McVernon J, Turnover of village chickens undermines vaccine coverage to control HPAI H5N1, Zoonoses and Public Health 64: 53–62 (2017) [doi]

8. Yan AWC, Cao P, Heffernan JM, McVernon J, Quinn KM, La Gruta NL, Laurie KL, McCaw JM, Modelling cross-reactivity and memory in the cellular adaptive immune response to influenza infection in the host, Journal of Theoretical Biology 413: 34–49 (2017) [doi]

9. Moss R, Zarebski A, Dawson P, McCaw JM, Retrospective forecasting of the 2010-14 Melbourne influenza seasons using multiple surveillance systems, Epidemiology and Infection 145(1): 156-169 (2017) [doi]

2016

1. Cao P, Wang Z, Yan AWC, McVernon J, Xu J, Heffernan JM, Kedzierska K, McCaw JM, On the role of CD8+ T cells in determining recovery time from influenza virus infection, Frontiers in Immunology 7: 611 (2016) [doi]

2. Moss R, McCaw JM, Cheng AC, Hurt AC, McVernon J, Reducing disease burden in an influenza pandemic by targeted delivery of neuraminidase inhibitors: mathematical models in the Australian context, BMC Infectious Diseases 16: 552 (2016) [doi]

3. Moss R, Hickson RI, McVernon J, McCaw JM, Hort K, Black J, Madden J, Tran N, McBryde ES, Geard N, Model-informed risk assessment and decision making for an emerging infectious disease in the Asia-Pacific region, PLoS Negl Trop Dis 10(9): e0005018 (2016) [doi]

4. Leung T, Hughes BD, Frascoli F, McCaw JM, Periodic solutions in an SIRWS model with immune boosting and cross-immunity, Journal of Theoretical Biology 410: 55–64 (2016) [doi]

5. Yan AWC, Cao P, McCaw JM, On the extinction probability in models of within-host infection: the role of latency and immunity, Journal of Mathematical Biology 73(4): 787–813 (2016) [doi]

6. Komadina N, Quinones-Parra S, Kedzierska K, McCaw JM, Kelso A, Leder K, McVernon J, High conservation of CD8+ T cell immunogenic regions within an unusual H1N2 human influenza variant, Journal of Medical Virology 88(10): 1725–1732 (2016) [doi]

7. Yang T, Xie SC, Cao P, Giannangelo C, McCaw JM, Creek DJ, Charman SA, Klonis N, Tilley L, A comparison of the exposure time-dependence of the activities of synthetic ozonide antimalarials and dihydroartemisinin against K13 wildtype and mutant Plasmodium falciparum, Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy 60(8): 4501–4510 (2016) [doi]

8. Moss RG, Zarebski A, Dawson P, McCaw JM, Forecasting influenza outbreak dynamics in Melbourne from internet search query surveillance data, Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 10(4): 314–323 (2016) [doi]

9. Quinn KM, Zaloumis SG, Cukalac T, Kan W-T, Sng X, Mirams M, Watson K, McCaw JM, Doherty PC, Thomas PG, Handel A, La Gruta NL, Heightened self-reactivity associated with selective survival, but not expansion, of naïve virus-specific CD8+ T cells in aged mice, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 113(5): 1333–1338 (2016)  [doi]

2015

1. Geard N, Glass K, McCaw JM, McBryde ES, Korb KB, Keeling MJ, McVernon J, The effects of demographic change on disease transmission and vaccine impact in a household structured population, Epidemics 13: 56–64 (2015) [doi]

2. Laurie KL, Guarnaccia TA, Carolan LA, Yan AWC, Aban M, Petrie S, Cao P, Heffernan JM, McVernon J, Mosse J, Kelso A, McCaw JM, Barr IG, The time-interval between infections and viral hierarchies are determinants of viral interference following influenza virus infection in a ferret model, Journal of Infectious Diseases 212: 1701–1710 (2015) [doi]

3. Rolls DA, Geard NL, Warr DJ, Nathan PM, Robins GL, Pattison PE, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Social encounter profiles of greater Melbourne residents, by location--a telephone survey, BMC Infectious Diseases 15: 494 (2015) [doi]

4. Campbell PT, McCaw JM, McIntyre P, McVernon J, Defining long-term drivers of pertussis resurgence, and optimal vaccine control strategies, Vaccine 33(43): 5794-5800 (2015) [doi]

5. Ali H, Cameron E, Drovandi CC, McCaw JM, Guy RJ, Middleton M, El-Hayek C, Hocking JS, Kaldor JM, Donovan B, Wilson DP, on behalf of the Australian chlamydia incidence estimation group, A new approach to estimating trends in chlamydia incidence, Sexually Transmitted Infections 91: 513–519 (2015) [doi]

6. Cao P, Yan AWC, Heffernan JM, Petrie S, Moss RG, Carolan LA, Guarnaccia TA, Kelso A, Barr IG, McVernon J, Laurie KL, McCaw JM, Innate immunity and the inter-exposure interval determine the dynamics of secondary influenza virus infection and explain observed viral hierarchies, PLoS Computational Biology 11(8): e1004334 (2015) [doi]

7. Brown CR, McCaw JM, Fairmaid EJ, Brown LE, Leder K, Sinclair M, McVernon J, Factors associated with transmission of influenza-like illness in a cohort of households containing multiple children, Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 9(5): 247–254 (2015) [doi]

8. Petrie SM, Butler J, Barr IG, McVernon J, Hurt AC, McCaw JM, Quantifying relative within-host replication fitness in influenza virus competition experiments, Journal of Theoretical Biology 382: 259–271 (2015) [doi]

9. Dogovski C, Xie SC, Burgio G, Bridgford J, Mok S, McCaw JM, Chotivanich K, Kenny S, Gnadig N, Straimer J, Bozdech Z, Fidock DA, Simpson JA, Dondorp AM, Foote S, Klonis N, Tilley L, Targeting the cell stress response of plasmodium falciparum to overcome artemisinin resistance, PLoS Biology 13(4): e1002132 (2015) [doi]

10. Bolton KJ, McCaw JM, Brown L, Jackson D, Kedzierska K, McVernon J, Prior population immunity reduces the expected impact of CTL-inducing vaccines for pandemic influenza control, PLoS ONE 10(3): e0120138 (2015) [doi]

11. Campbell PT, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Pertussis models to inform vaccine policy, Human Vaccines and Immunotherapeutics 11(3): 669–678 (2015) [doi]

12. Thomas EG, McCaw JM, Kelly H, Grant K, McVernon J, Quantifying differences in the epidemic curves from three influenza surveillance systems: a nonlinear regression analysis, Epidemiology and Infection 143(2): 427–439 (2015) [doi]

2014

1. Cameron E, Drovandi CC, Baker J, Lim WX, Urquhart J, Yakob L, McCaw JM, Estimating incidence of sexually transmissible infections in Australia, ANZIAM J 55 (MISG2013) pp. M60–M76 (2014) [doi]

2. Zaloumis S, Tarning J, Krishna S, Price R, White N, Davis T, McCaw JM, Olliaro P, Maude R, Kremsner P, Dondorp A, Gomes M, Barnes K, Simpson J, Population pharmacokinetics of intravenous artesunate: a pooled analysis of individual data from patients with severe malaria, CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology 3: e145 (2014) [doi]

3. Dafilis MD, Frascoli F, McVernon J, Heffernan JM, McCaw JM, Dynamical crises, multistability and the influence of the duration of immunity in a seasonally-forced model of disease transmission, Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling 11: 43 (2014) [doi]

4. Simpson JA, Zaloumis S, DeLivera AM, Price RN, McCaw JM, Making the most of clinical data: reviewing the role of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models of anti-malarial drugs, AAPS Journal 16(5): 962–974 (2014) [doi]

5. Bolton KJ, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Mathews JD, The influence of changing host immunity on 1918-19 pandemic dynamics, Epidemics 8: 18–27 (2014) [doi]

6. Oh DY, Lowther S, McCaw JM, Sullivan SG, Leang S-K, Haining J, Arkinstall R, Kelso A, McVernon J, Barr IG, Middleton D, Hurt AC, Evaluation of oseltamivir prophylaxis regimens for reducing influenza virus infection, transmission and disease severity in a ferret model of household contact, Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy 69(9): 2458–2469 (2014) [doi]

7. Dafilis MP, Frascoli F, McVernon J, Heffernan JM, McCaw JM, The dynamical consequences of seasonal forcing, immune boosting and demographic change in a model of disease transmission, Journal of Theoretical Biology 361: 124–132 (2014) [doi]

8. Butler J, Hooper KA, Petrie SM, Lee R, Maurer-Stroh S, Reh L, Guarnaccia T, Baas C, Xue L, Vitesnik S, Leang SK, McVernon J, Kelso A, Barr IG, McCaw JM, Bloom JD, Hurt AC, Estimating the fitness advantage conferred by permissive neuraminidase mutations in recent oseltamivir-resistant A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza viruses, PLoS Pathogens 10(4): e1004065 (2014) [doi]

9. McCaw JM, Glass K, Mercer G, McVernon J, Pandemic controllability: an concept to guide a proportionate and flexible operational response to future influenza pandemics, Journal of Public Health 36: 5–12 (2014) [doi]

2013

1. Howard P & McCaw JM, Richmond PC, Nissen M, Sloots T, Lambert SB, Lai M, Greenberg M, Nolan T, McVernon J, Virus detection and its association with symptoms during influenza-like illness in a sample of healthy adults enrolled in a randomised controlled vaccine trial, Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 7(3): 330–339 (2013) [doi]

2. Petrie SM, Guarnaccia T, Laurie KL, Hurt AC, McVernon J, McCaw JM, Reducing uncertainty in within-host parameter estimates of influenza infection by measuring both infectious and total viral load, PLoS ONE 8(5): e64098 (2013) [doi]

3. Guarnaccia T, Carolan LA, Maurer-Stroh S, Lee RTC, Job E, Reading PC, Petrie S, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Hurt A, Kelso A, Mosse J, Barr I, Laurie K, Antigenic drift of the pandemic 2009 A(H1N1) influenza virus in a ferret model, PLoS Pathogens 9(5): e1003354 (2013) [doi]

4. Klonis N, Xie SC, McCaw JM, Crespo-Ortiz MP, Zaloumis SG, Simpson JA, Tilley L, Altered temporal response of malaria parasites determines differential sensitivity to artemisinin, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 110(13): 5157–5162 (2013) [doi]

5. Geard N, McCaw JM, Dorin A, Korb KB, McVernon J, Synthetic population dynamics: a model of household demography for epidemiological simulations, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 16(1): 8 (2013) [doi]

2012

1. Dafilis MP, Frascoli F, Wood JG, McCaw JM, The influence of increasing life expectancy on the dynamics of SIRS systems with immune boosting, Australian New Zealand Industrial and Applied Mathematics Journal 54: 50–63 (2012) [doi]

2. Dafilis MP, Moss R, McVernon J, McCaw JM, Drivers and consequences of influenza antiviral resistant-strain emergence in a capacity-constrained pandemic response, Epidemics 4(4): 219–226 (2012) [doi]

3. McCaw JM, Howard PF, Richmond PC, Nissen M, Sloots T, Lambert SB, Lai M, Greenberg M, Nolan T, McVernon J, Household transmission of respiratory viruses--assessment of viral, individual and household characteristics in a population study of healthy Australian adults, BMC Infectious Diseases 12: 345 (2012) [doi]

4. Zaloumis S, Humberstone A, Charman SA, Price RN, Moehrie J, Gamo-Benito J, McCaw J, Jamsen KM, Smith K, Simpson JA, Assessing the utility of an antimalarial pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model for aiding drug clinical development, Malaria Journal 11: 303 (2012) [doi]

5. Mota TM, Murray JM, Center RJ, Purcell DFJ, McCaw JM, Application of a case-control study design to investigate genotypic signatures of HIV-1 transmission, Retrovirology 9: 54 (2012) [doi]

6. Bolton KB, McCaw JM, Moss R, Morris RS, Wang S, Burma A, Darma B, Narangerel D, Nymadawa P, McVernon J, Likely effectiveness of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating influenza transmission in Mongolia, Bull World Health Organ 90: 264–271 (2012) [doi]

7. Bolton KB, McCaw JM, Forbes K, Nathan P, Robins G, Pattison P, Nolan T, McVernon J, Influence of contact definitions in assessment of the relative importance of social settings in disease transmission risk, PLoS ONE 7(2): e30893 (2012) [doi]

8. Verikios G, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Harris A, H1N1 influenza and the Australian macroeconomy, Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy 17(1): 22–51 (2012) [doi]

2011

1. Glass K, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Incorporating population dynamics into household models of infectious disease transmission, Epidemics 3: 152–158 (2011) [doi]

2. McCaw JM, Arinaminpathy N, Hurt AC, McVernon J, McLean AR, A mathematical framework for estimating viral transmission fitness and inoculum size using data from a competitive mixtures animal model, PLoS Computational Biology 7(4): e1002026 (2011) [doi]

3. Pearce DC, Pallaghy PK, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Mathews JD, Understanding mortality in the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in England and Wales, Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 5(2): 89–98 (2011) [doi]

4. Moss RG, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Diagnosis and Antiviral Intervention Strategies for Mitigating an Influenza Pandemic, PLoS ONE 6(2): e14505 (2011) [doi]

2010

1. Hurt AC, Nore S, McCaw JM, Fryer HR, Mosse J, McLean AR, Barr IG, Assessing the viral fitness of oseltamivir-resistant influenza viruses in ferrets using a competitive mixtures model, J Virol 84(18): 9427–9438 (2010) [doi]

2. McCaw JM, Forbes K, Nathan PM, Pattison PE, Robins GL, Nolan TM, McVernon J, Comparison of three methods for ascertainment of contact information relevant to respiratory pathogen transmission in encounter networks, BMC Infectious Diseases 10: 166 (2010) [doi]

3. Mathews JD, McBryde ES, McVernon J, Pallaghy PK, McCaw JM, Prior immunity helps to explain wave-like behaviour of pandemic influenza in 1918-19, BMC Infectious Diseases 10: 128 (2010) [doi]

4. McVernon J, McCaw JM, Nolan TM, Modelling strategic use of the national antiviral stockpile during the CONTAIN and SUSTAIN phases of an Australian pandemic influenza response, Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health 34(2): 113–19 (2010) [doi]

2009

1. McCaw JM, Wood JG, McBryde ES, Nolan TM, Wu JT, Lipsitch M, McVernon J, Understanding Australia’s influenza pandemic policy on the strategic use of the antiviral drug stockpile, Med J Aust 191(3): 136–137 (2009) [url]

2. McCaw JM, McVernon J, McBryde ES, Mathews JD, Influenza: accounting for prior immunity, Science (Letters) 325: 1071 (2009) [doi]

3. Mathews JD, Chesson JM, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Understanding Influenza Transmission, Immunity and Pandemic Threats, Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 3(4): 143–149 (2009) [doi]

4. Wood JG, McCaw JM, Becker N, Nolan T, MacIntyre R, Optimal dosing and dynamic distribution of vaccines in an influenza pandemic, American Journal of Epidemiology 169(12): 1517–1524 (2009) [doi]

2008

1. McCaw JM, Wood JG, McCaw CT, McVernon J, Impact of emerging antiviral drug resistance on influenza containment and spread: influence of subclinical infection and strategic use of a stockpile containing one or two drugs, PLoS ONE 3(6): e2362 (2008) [doi]

2007

1. Mathews JD, McCaw CT, McVernon J, McBryde E, McCaw JM, A biological model for influenza transmission. Pandemic planning implications of asymptomatic infection and immunity, PLoS ONE 2(11): e1220 (2007) [doi]

2. McCaw JM, McVernon J, Prophylaxis or treatment? Optimal use of an antiviral stockpile during an influenza pandemic, Mathematical Biosciences 209(2): 336–360 (October 2007) [doi]

2005

1. McCaw JM, McKellar BHJ, On the continuous spectral component of the Floquet operator for a periodically kicked system, J. Math. Phys. 46: 103503 (2005) [doi]

2. McCaw JM, McKellar BHJ, Pure point spectrum for the time evolution of a periodically rank-N kicked Hamiltonian, J. Math. Phys. 46: 032108 (2005) [doi]

Other articles

1.  Plank M, Shearer F, McCaw JM, Wood J, With COVID now endemic, modelling suggests targeted protection will be more effective than blanket measures, The Conversation (24 August 2023) [url]

2. Wood J, Shearer F, McCaw JM, We’re in another COVID wave. But it’s not like the others, The Conversation (13 June 2023) [url]

3. Shearer F, Bennett C, Vally H, McCaw JM, Golding N, New COVID variants may be more transmissible but that doesn’t mean the R0 – or basic reproduction number – has increased, The Conversation (27 July 2022) [url]

4. Baker C, Shearer F, McCaw JM, Golding N, Tired of lockdown rules? Our analysis shows most Australians have curbed mixing and helped suppress COVID, The Conversation (6 October 2021) [url]

5. McCaw JM, Informing the COVID-19 response: mathematicians’ contributions to pandemic planning and response, Australian Mathematical Society Essay (18 June 2021) [url]

6. McVernon J, McCaw JM, Sorry Melbourne. The chance of reaching an average 5 COVID-19 cases by mid-October is under 50%, The Conversation (9 October 2020) [url]

7. McVernon J, McCaw JM, Models have supported Australia’s response to COVID-19, Cosmos Magazine (1st April 2020) [url]

8. Eckersley P, McCaw JM, Gerety R, et. al., 13 things tech companies can do to fight coronavirus: An open letter from technologists, epidemiologists & medical professionals, Tech vs COVID-19 (11th March 2020) [url]

9. Geard NG, McVernon J, Moss R, Shearer F, McBryde E, McCaw JM, Black A, What maths can tell us about the spread of the new coronavirus, Pursuit, The University of Melbourne (4 February 2020) [url]

10. McCaw JM, Moss R, Forecasting flu outbreaks, Pursuit, The University of Melbourne (13 February 2018) [url]

11. McVernon J, Wood J (eds), Campbell P, Geard N, Glass K, McBryde E, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Moss R, Ross J, Wood J, A user's guide to infectious disease modelling, PRISM CRE, (ISBN 978 0 7340 5303 9), University of Melbourne (August 2016) [url]

12. Geard N, Simmons C, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Is the end of Zika nigh? How populations develop immunity, The Conversation (22 July 2016) [url]

13. McCaw JM, Computing told us how close we came to a global pandemic of a drug-resistant flu, The Conversation (9 June 2016) [url]

14. Simpson JA, McCaw JM, Fowkes F, Parasite strain, host immunity, and circulating blood cells with dead parasites: Why predicting malaria parasite clearance is not a simple task?, Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy (Letter) 60:1172 (2015) [doi]

15. Moss RG, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Why predicting a flu outbreak is like betting on football or flipping a coin, The Conversation (11 August 2015) [url]

16. McVernon J, McCaw JM, Ross J, Glass K, Geard N, Health Check: When are we most likely to catch viral diseases?, The Conversation (6 July 2015) [url]

17. McCaw JM, Stone L, F1000 Prime recommendation on ``Does homologous reinfection drive multiple-wave influenza outbreaks? Accounting for immunodynamics in epidemiological models'', F1000 Prime (30 January 2014) [doi]

18. McCaw JM, Stone L, F1000 Prime recommendation on ``Inferring the causes of the three waves of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England and Wales'', F1000 Prime (28 August 2013) [doi]

19. Verikios G, McCaw J, McVernon J, Harris A, H1N1 Influenza in Australia and its Macroeconomic Effects, CoPS/IMPACT Monash University Faculty of Business and Economics, Working Paper G-212 (December 2010)

20. McCaw JM, McVernon J, McCaw CT, Mathews JD, Modelling the biology and transmission of influenza virus--learning from 1918-19 and other outbreaks, Victorian Infectious Diseases Bulletin (March 2007)

21. McCaw JM, Quantum Chaos: Spectral Analysis of Floquet Operators, (ISBN 0 7340 3071 1), University of Melbourne (December 2004)