James Cloyne

Associate Professor of Economics | University of California Davis

Working Papers

Taxes, Innovation and Productivity (with Joseba Martinez, Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico), April 2024, revised version of NBER Working Paper 24659.

Who Gains from Corporate Tax Cuts? (with Ezgi Kurt and Paolo Surico), May 2023, NBER Working Paper 31278. 

Global Monetary and Financial Spillovers: Evidence from a New Measure of Bundesbank Policy Shocks (with Patrick Huertgen and Alan Taylor) September 2022. NBER Working Paper 30485.

Decomposing the Fiscal Multiplier (with Oscar Jorda and Alan M. Taylor) . NBER Working Paper 26939. CEPR Discussion Paper 14544.

Publications

Heterogeneous Agent Macroeconomics: Origins, Progress and Challenges (with Wendy Carlin), in Macroeconomics: Institutions, Instability and Inequality, Carlin, W and Soskice, D, Oxford University Press, January 2024.

Do Tax Increases Tame Inflation? (with Joseba Martinez, Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico), AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023 113: 377-381.

Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance and Investment  (with Paolo Surico,  Clodo Ferreira and Maren Froemel),  Journal of the European Economic Association Volume 21(6), 2586-2634, December 2023. Older: NBER Working Paper 25366.

Taxes and Growth: New Narrative Evidence from Interwar Britain (with Natacha Postel-Vinay and Nicholas Dimsdale), Review of Economic Studies, forthcoming, August 2023. Narrative Appendix.  Older: NBER Working Paper 24659.

Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution Using Mortgage Notches (with Michael Best, Ethan Ilzetzki and Henrik Kleven) Review of Economic Studies Volume 87(2), 656–690, March 2020. 2015 version: BoE WP 543.

Monetary Policy When Households Have Debt: New Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism with Paolo Surico and Clodo Ferreira.  Review of Economic Studies Volume 87(1) 102-129, January 2020. 2015 version: CEPR Discussion Paper 11023 Non-technical summary: VoX EU.

Firms' Price, Cost and Activity Expectations: Evidence from Micro Data (with Lena Boneva, Martin Weale and Tomasz Wieladek). Economic Journal Volume 130, Issue 627, 555–586, April 2020. 2019 version: CFM Discussion Paper 2019-05 and CEPR DP 12722P. 

The Effect of House Prices on Household Borrowing: A New Approach (with Kilian Huber, Ethan Ilzetzki and Henrik Kleven).  American Economic Review  Vol. 109(6), June 2019  (WP version: BoE WP 650)

Brexit: New Evidence and Policy Perspectives Fiscal Studies Brexit Special Issue Volume 39(4), 549-553, December 2018.

Household Debt and the Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes with Paolo Surico. Review of Economic Studies.  Volume 84(1) 45-81, January 2017. 2014 version: BoE WP 491. Coverage in the Economist. 

The Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy: a New Measure for the United Kingdom with Patrick Huertgen. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics. 8(4): 75-102, October 2016. 2014 version: Bank of England Working Paper 493. VOX nontechnical summary.

The Effect of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Inflation Expectations: Evidence from UK Firms, with Lena Boneva, Martin Weale and Tomasz Wieladek, International Journal of Central Banking. Volume 12, Number 3, September 2016: 161-195. 

The Analysis of Money and Credit During the Financial Crisis (with Jon Bridges, Ryland Thomas, Alex Tuckett) in Monetary Analysis at Central Banks, Cobham, D. (Ed), Palgrave-Macmillan. 

An Empirical Sectoral Model of Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Impact of QE (with Ryland Thomas, Alex Tuckett and Samuel Wills), The Manchester School, Volume 83, Issue S1, June 2015, 51–82

Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence from the United Kingdom  American Economic Review, June 2013, Vol. 103(4). 

Unpublished Manuscripts

Government spending shocks, wealth effects and distortionary taxes (2014) Centre for Macroeconomics Discussion Paper 2014-13. Also see 2011 version here.

What are the effects of tax shocks in the United Kingdom? New evidence from a narrative evaluation.” CESifo WP 3433