Research and Publications
Google Scholar Site Link (alternative site)
Areas of Research Interest
Growth and Productivity, Fiscal Policy, Public Debt and Deficits, Political Economy in Macroeconomics, Inequality, International Economic Integration (Capital Flows, FDI), Korea, and EM Asia
New Book Is Coming Soon!
Confronting South Korea's Next Crisis: Structural Rigidities, Social Polarization, and Fear of Japanification (to be published by the Oxford University Press in October 2022)
Selected Publications of Research Papers
“Financial Crises and Inequality: New Evidence from a Panel of 17 Advanced Economies,” Journal of Economic Asymmetries, forthcoming in 2023/24.
"South Korea’s Coming Era of Stagnation: Can Seoul Save Its Economy From Japanese-Style Paralysis?" Foreign Affairs (forthcoming in 2023; published online May 17, 2023).
“Whither South Korea’s Economic Growth? Growth Deceleration, Structural Issue, and Risk of Stagnation,” Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy (forthcoming in 2023, published online May 12, 2023).
"Revisiting Okun’s Law in South Korea: Asymmetries, Crises, and Structural Changes," Journal of Economic Asymmetries (forthcoming in June, 2023; published online February 13, 2023).
"The Long-Run Determinants of Redistribution: Evidence from a Panel of 47 Countries in 1967-2014," Empirical Economics, April 2023, 64(4): 1811-1860.
"Does It Matter for the Economy to Have a Conservative or Liberal Government in Korea? Political Parties and Business Cycle in South Korea, 1998-2019," Asian Journal of Political Science, 29(3), 2021, pp. 359-395.
“Inequality, Redistribution, and Growth: What Do the Data Say about the Trade-off between Equity and Efficiency?" Empirical Economics, 58(6), 2020, pp. 2667-2707.
“Austerity and Inequality: The Size and Composition of Fiscal Adjustment Matter,” (joint with Elva Bova and Tidiane Kinda), VOX, February 7, 2018 (available at www.voxeu.org).
“Distributional Consequences of Fiscal Contractions” (with Elva Bova, Tidiane Kinda, Sophia Zhang), The IMF Economic Review, 65(2), 2017, pp.273-307.
“The Puzzle of Persistently Negative Interest Rate-Growth Differentials: Financial Repression or Income Catch-up,” (with Julio Escolano, Anna Shabunina), Fiscal Studies, 38(2), June 2017, pp.179-217. Lead article.
“Public Debt and Growth.” (with M.S. Kumar), Economica, 82(328), October 2015, pp. 705-739.
“Reassessing the Role and Modalities of Fiscal Policy in Advanced Economies,” (with Nathaniel Arnold, Mark de Broeck, and others), The IMF Policy Paper, September 2013.
“Technological Upgrading in China and India: What Do We Know?” The OECD Development Center Working Paper, No. 308, January 2012.
“Public Expenditures on Social Programs and Household Consumption in China.” (co-authored with E. Baldacci, G. Callegari, D. Coady, D. Ding, M. Kumar, P. Tommasino), The IMF Working Paper, No. 10/69, March 2010.
“Growth, Income Distribution, and Fiscal Policy Volatility.” The Journal of Development Economics, 96(2), pp. 289-313, November 2011. The 11th most downloaded article in Journal of Development Economics in 2011.
“Why Do More Polarized Countries Run More Pro-cyclical Fiscal Policy?” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 91(4): 850-870, November 2009.
“Productivity Growth and Technological Diffusion through Foreign Direct Investment.” Economic Inquiry, 47(2), 226-248, April 2009.
“Social Polarization, Fiscal Instability, and Growth.” European Economic Review, 49(6): 1451-1477, August 2005.
“Social Polarization, Industrialization, and Fiscal Instability: Theory and Evidence.” Journal of Development Economics, 72: 223-252, October 2003.
“Economic, Political and Institutional Determinants of Public Deficits.” Journal of Public Economics, 87: 387-426, March 2003. Lead article. Most requested articles in Journal of Public Economics 2003: ranked 6th
“The Role of Policy and Institutions for Productivity and Firm Dynamics: Evidence From Micro and Industry Data.” (with S. Scarpetta, P. Hemmings, T. Tressel), OECD Economics Department Working Paper, No. 329, April 2002. Covered in the Economics Focus section of The Economist (a London-based weekly magazine), May 25, 2002.
Published Books
Fiscal Monitor: Taxing times. (with Martine Guerguil, Luc Eyraud, Marialuz Badia, Priscilla Muthoora, and others at the IMF), International Monetary Fund: Washington , DC, October 2013.
The Political Economy of Fiscal Policy. Springer, Berlin; New York. (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems series, Vol. 570), February 2006.
The OECD Economic Survey of the United States. (with Hannes Suppanz, Michael Kiley, Peter Jarret and Elizabeth Docteur), Vol. 2002/18, Paris: OECD, November 2002.
Published Book Chapters
“The Relationship between Public Debt and Growth,” (with Manmohan Kumar), in C. Cottarelli, P. Gerson and A. Senhadji (eds.), Post-CrisisFiscal Policy, MIT Press, July, 2014.
“The Evolution of Fiscal Developments and Policies in the Pacific Rim,” (with Manmohan Kumar and Nirvikar Singh), in I. Kaur and N. Singh (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of the Pacific Rim, Oxford University Press, January 2014.
“Distributional Consequences of Alternative Fiscal Consolidation Measures: Readings from the Data” (with Elva Bova, Tidiane Kinda, Sophia Zhang), in Fiscal Monitor, IMF, October 2012, pp. 50-58.
“Public Expenditures on Social Programs and Household Consumption in China,” (with Emanuele Baldacci, Giovanni Callegari, David Coady, Ding Ding, Manmohan Kumar, Pietro Tommasino), in Effects of SocialPolicy on Domestic Demand, Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo, Japan, November 2010, pp. 171-201.
“Growth, Government Policies and Institutions in the Globalized World Economy.” in Jeong-ho Hahm (ed.) Sustaining Korean EconomicGrowth – A Way Forward: Augmenting Growth Potential and Upgrading the Financial System, The Bank of Korea, Seoul, December 2004, pp. 3-105.
See my CV for a full list of publications.