Ivan Deseatnicov

RESEARCH INTERESTS   

International trade and FDI; International Open Macroeconomics

Statement of Research Interest

ONGOING PROJECTS

Technological Decoupling Between the U.S. and China (with Kazunobu Hayakawa, Keiko Ito, Kyoji Fukao, and Konstantin Kucheryavyy) [work in progress]

Hitotsubashi University Institute of Economic Research Discussion Paper Series A No.756

Measuring the Dynamic Impact of U.S. Export Controls: An Industry-Level Index and Evidence from Japanese Multinationals in China (with Kyoji Fukao) [under review]

Also circulated as "U.S. Export Controls and the Restructuring of Global Values Chains: an analysis of Japanese Multinationals Exits from China" RIETI Discussion Paper Series 24-E-082, December 2024. Non-technical summary. In Japanese: Abstract, Non-technical summary

Featured as VOX column at cepr.org, Feb 2025. 

Export Controls and Trade Patterns: Evidence from Taiwan (with Fujun Wang and Nikita Kostiuchenko) [submitted] 

Also circulated as "Export Controls and the China-US Technology Dispute: Assessing the Impacts on Taiwan’s Trade"

PUBLICATIONS

"Beyond resource intensity: unveiling the determinants of Russian MNEs’ integration into global value chains", Post-Communist Economies, 2025, May,  37(6): 533–553 (with Nikita Kostiuchenko)

"The Impact of the Strengthening of Export Controls on Japanese Exports of Dual-use Goods", International Economics, 2023, August, 174(2023): 160-179 (with Kazunobu Hayakawa, Keiko Ito and Kyoji Fukao)

Also ciculated as "Impact of U.S.-China Conflict and Strengthening Export Control on Japanese Exports": IDE Jetro working paper No. 852, May 2022.

"Currency  risk and the dynamics of German investors entry and exit in Russia", Emerging Markets Review, 2023, June, 55: 101023   (with Olga Klochko). [slides]

Also circulated as "Dynamics of foreign firms entry and exit in Russia". 

"Technology Level and Global Value Chain", Applied Economics, 2023, April, 55(25): 2928-2943 (with Tran Lam Anh Duong). 

Also circulated as: 

"Technology Level and Global Value Chain": HSE Working Papers, August 2020. [slides]

"The Impact of Technology Level on Global Value Chain Formation": FIW - Working Paper, March 2019.

"Exports, Trade Costs and FDI Entry: Evidence from Japanese Firms", Transnational Corporations Journal, 2021, December, 28(3): 1-34 (with Konstantin Kucheryavyy and Kyoji Fukao) [Working paper version, February 2021] [slides].

Also circulated as "Exports and FDI Entry Decision: Evidence from Japanese Foreign-Affiliated Firms": RIETI Discussion Paper Series 17-E-036, 2017. In Japanese: Abstract, Non-technical summary.

"Japan’s participation in global value chains: splitting the IO table into production for export and domestic sale",  Economic Systems Research, 2020, June, 32(2): 173-191  (with Koji Ito and Kyoji Fukao). 

Also circulated as:  "Japanese Plants' Heterogeneity in Sales, Factor Inputs, and Participation in Global Value Chains," RIETI Discussion paper series 17-E-117, 2017, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry. In Japanese: Abstract, Non-technical summary.

Featured as VOX column at cepr.org, Jan 2018. 

"Exchange rate, political environment and FDI decision", International Economics, 2016, 148: 16-30 (with Hiroya Akiba)  

[Working paper version, April 2016]

“Exchange rate and Chinese Outward FDI”, Applied Economics, 2016, 48(51): 4961-4976 (with Haiyue Liu)

“Effects of Exchange Rate and Political Environment on Japanese Outward FDI: a panel data analysis” The International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, 2012, Volume 7: 89-111 (with Hiroya Akiba).

BOOK CHAPTERS

Chapter 6: FDI and Political risk, "FDI, political risk and democracy, again", edited by Melike Bildirci, Cemal Zehir, Fazıl Kayıkçı, Murat Karagöz, Tahsin Bakırtaş, Istanbul as a global financial center, Cambridge Scholars Publishing, pp. 207-226, February 01, 2017. (with Hiroya Akiba).

[Working paper version October 2015]

OLD WORKING PAPERS

Dynamics of Japanese MNEs and the degree of connection with home  (with Daisuke Fujii, Konstantin Kucheryavyy and Yukiko Saito). [slides]

Also circulated as "Why Do Japanese MNEs Enter and Exit Foreign Markets? ": RIETI Discussion Paper Series 20-E-055, 2020.