Research

Abstract: In spite In spite of the growing literature on deroutinisation, little is known about the individual-level patterns underlying the decline of routine jobs and the link with informal employment in middle-income countries. To fill this gap, we analyse the flows of routine workers into and out of formal and informal routine and non-routine occupations over the period 1980–2015 in Chile. Using rich longitudinal data from the Social Protection Survey, we reconstruct individuals’ occupational trajectories by classifying individuals based on their ISCO-88 2-digit level occupations into different states on a monthly basis. We then estimate a series of multilevel competing risk event history models and adopt a decomposition flow approach to study the flows underlying the decline of routine occupations over time. Our findings indicate a process of displacement and occupational downgrading for routine manual workers: workers in routine manual formal employment increasingly become non-employed or use informality as a buffer against job loss, and workers in routine manual informal employment become unemployed or transit to non-routine manual informal occupations. Our decomposition analysis shows that the decline in the share of routine occupations in Chile is mostly accounted for by a decrease in the inflow transition rate from unemployment, coupled with an increase in the outflow transition rates to unemployment. Lastly, we find that, over time, a larger proportion of individuals who were formally employed in RM occupations transit to informal employment after a period of unemployment.

Abstract: This paper investigates the association between family formation and the labour market trajectories of immigrants’ descendants over the life course. Using rich data from the Trajectories and Origins survey from France, we apply multilevel event history models to analyse the transitions in and out of employment for both men and women by parity. We account for unobserved co-determinants of childbearing and employment by applying a simultaneous-equations modelling. Our analysis shows that women’s professional careers are negatively associated with childbirth. There are differences across descendant groups. The female descendants of Turkish immigrants are more likely to exit employment and less likely to re-enter employment following childbirth than women from other groups. The negative impact of childbearing on employment is slightly overestimated among women due to unobserved selection effects. Among men, the descendants of European immigrants are less likely to exit employment after having a child than other descendant groups. The study demonstrates the negative effect of childbearing on women’s employment, which is pronounced for some minority groups suggesting the need for further policies to help women reconcile work with family life.

Abstract: This study investigates partnership changes and childbearing among immigrant women and men and their descendants born in the UK, France and Germany. While there is a growing literature on immigrant families in Europe, little (if any) research has examined their fertility and partnership histories in tandem. We focus on two critical stages of individuals’ family life course: pathways to family formation (e.g., transitions from singlehood to cohabitation, marriage or a birth outside of a union), and the evolution of individuals’ family lives once they are in a union (e.g., having a(nother) child or experiencing union dissolution). We apply a series of competing-risks Poisson regression models to combined longitudinal data from the three countries. Our analysis shows significant diversity in partnership trajectories among immigrants and their descendants in Europe that in many cases vary more by migration origin than destination. Immigrants from other European countries and their descendants cohabit prior to marriage and their fertility levels in unions are often similar to those of ancestral natives. In contrast, South Asians in the UK and the Turkish population in France and Germany exhibit marriage-centred family behaviour with low separation levels and elevated third-birth rates. Individuals of sub-Saharan African or the Caribbean origin display higher levels of nonmarital family transitions. The differences between migrant groups persist when adjusting for educational level and number of siblings. Further, the analyses show that migration background is particularly associated with partnership patterns, whereas the country context in destination does influence patterns in childbearing behaviour. This suggests that cultural-normative as well as structural factors are at play in shaping family trajectories of immigrants and their descendants. We predict some patterns to persist across future migrant generations (e.g., preference for marriage vs cohabitation), whereas others are likely to vanish (e.g., large families). 

Abstract: While there is a large literature investigating migrant marriage or fertility, little research has examined how childbearing and partnerships are interrelated. In this paper, we investigate how childbearing and partnership trajectories evolve and interact over the life course for immigrants and their descendants and how the relationship varies by migrant origin. We apply multichannel sequence analysis to rich longitudinal survey data from France and find significant differences in family-related behaviour between immigrants, their descendants, and the native French. Immigrants’ family behaviour is characterized by stronger association between marriage and childbearing than in the native population. However, there are significant differences across migrant groups. Turkish immigrants exhibit the most conservative family pathways. By contrast, the family behaviour of European immigrants is similar to that of the native population. The study also demonstrates that the family behaviour of some descendant groups has gradually become indistinguishable from that of the native French, whereas for other groups significant differences in family behaviour persist. 

Abstract: This paper estimates the potential distributional consequences of the first phase of the COVID-19 lockdowns on poverty and labour income inequality in 20 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. We estimate the share of individuals that are potentially able to remain active under the lockdown by taking into account individuals’ teleworking capacity but also whether their occupation is affected by legal workplace closures or mobility restrictions. Furthermore, we compare the shares under the formal (de jure) lockdown policies assuming perfect compliance with the shares under de facto lockdowns where there is some degree of non-compliance. We then estimate individuals’ potential labour income losses and examine changes in poverty and labour income inequality. We find an increase in poverty and labour income inequality in most of the LAC countries due to social distancing; however, the observed changes are lower under de facto lockdowns, revealing the potential role of non-compliance as a coping strategy during the lockdowns. Social distancing measures have led to an increase in inequality both between and within countries. Lastly, we show that most of the dispersion in the labour income loss across countries is explained by the sectoral/occupational employment structure of the economies. 

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to identify the factors that influence the labour market integration of humanitarian migrants in the host country. A number of employment outcomes are examined including access to employment, access to stable employment, the wage/earnings level and the education-occupation mismatch. By using a recently collected panel survey data in Australia, the study shows that pre-migration education, work experience, previous migration episodes, as well as English proficiency, English training, study/job training undertaken in Australia and social capital form important determinants of the labour market integration of refugees in the host country. The paper highlights the differentiated impacts of these resources on the refugees’ outcomes at six months, one year and two years after arrival.

Abstract: Climate change is expected to disproportionately affect agriculture in Bangladesh; however, there is limited information on smallholder farmers’ overall vulnerability and adaptation needs. This article estimates the impact of climatic shocks on the household agricultural income and, subsequently, on farmers’ adaptation strategies. Relying on data from a survey conducted in several communities in Bangladesh in 2011 and based on an IV probit approach, the results show that a 1 percentage point (pp) climate-induced decline in agricultural income pushes Bangladeshi households to adapt by almost 3 pp. Moreover, Bangladeshi farmers undertake a variety of adaptation options. However, several barriers to adaptation were identified, noticeably access to electricity and wealth. In this respect, policies can be implemented in order to assist the Bangladeshi farming community to adapt to climate change.

Abstract: This study investigates the link between childbearing and employment changes of female immigrants and their descendants in three European countries: the UK, France, and Germany. Although childbearing significantly influences female labour force participation, the interrelationship between fertility and employment changes among migrant populations is poorly understood. We use Poisson regression models to study employment entry and exit by migration background and parity. Mothers are less likely to enter and more likely to exit employment than childless women among native women, immigrants, and their descendants. The largest differences in employment entry and exit are observed between migrant groups and generations, and between countries. European and Western immigrants are more likely to (re- )enter and less likely to exit employment than those from non-European countries. The descendants of immigrants have higher employment levels than immigrants and the differences compared to natives are smaller, but they persist, particularly among those of non-European descent. We also observe some differences across countries: mothers are the most likely to exit employment in Germany and the least likely in France. Our study highlights the importance of work-family reconciliation and immigration policies for reducing labour market disadvantage among mothers overall, and particularly among immigrants and their descendants. 

Abstract: Understanding the housing experiences and residential mobility of migrant populations is crucial to facilitate their integration into the host societies. Yet, little is known about their experiences across generations, origin groups, and country contexts. This paper aims to address these gaps by investigating residential mobility and housing changes among immigrants, their descendants, and natives in five countries (the UK, France, Germany, Switzerland, and Sweden) with different housing markets and migrant populations. Using longitudinal data and applying Poisson regression models on aggregated occurrence-exposure data from 2010-2019, we first compare the risk of a residential move across migrant generations, origins groups, and host countries. Second, we estimate competing risks models to study the propensity to move to different housing tenure types (i.e., homeownership, private renting, and social renting). The results show distinct patterns of residential moves among migrant generations and origin groups. First, immigrants’ levels of residential mobility vary across origin groups and country contexts: in the UK and Switzerland, migrant groups have higher residential mobility rates than natives, whereas in France, Germany, and Sweden, most immigrant groups have a similar risk of moving as the natives. Second, in all countries, immigrants, especially from non-European countries, are less likely to be homeowners and more likely to be social or private renters. Some of the differences in mobility and homeownership rates decline across migrant generations, however we still find lower levels of homeownership and higher levels of social renting among some descendant groups. This study sheds light on persistent differences in residential mobility and housing patterns among immigrants, their descendants, and natives in Europe and contributes to provide a better understanding of the role of the country context in perpetuating housing inequalities. 

Abstract: The objective of this paper is twofold: first, to investigate residential mobility and housing changes among immigrants, their descendants, and the native population, and second, to examine the association between family/employment changes and residential mobility among immigrants, their descendants, and native-born individuals. We apply discrete-time event history analysis to rich French administrative panel data covering the period 2011-2019. The results show distinct patterns of residential moves among migrant groups and generations. Immigrants from North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa are less likely to move to homeownership and more likely to move to social renting compared to French natives. By contrast, immigrants from South East Asia, Turkey, and Europe have a similar likelihood of moving to homeownership than French natives. We find little changes in the probability of moving to homeownership across migrant generations. The descendants of immigrants from North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa are the least likely to move to homeownership and most likely to move to social renting. This suggests that either structural barriers or cultural norms shape the mobility patterns of immigrants and their descendants in the same way. Finally, we do not find any differences in the association between family/employment changes and residential mobility across migrants, their descendants, and the natives, suggesting that important life events play a similar role on residential mobility across all population groups.

Abstract: Survival and event history analyses have become widely used techniques in life-course and longitudinal research. Machine learning methods such as survival trees and tree ensembles are a useful alternative to classical methods. This paper aims to illustrate the advantages of random survival forest (RSF). We apply the method to analyse migrant fertility: the probability of having a first, second and third birth among immigrants and their descendants in France. The results of the RSF indicate that even though immigrants have a higher probability of having a birth than natives, highly educated immigrants are much closer to natives in their childbearing patterns than low educated migrants. Our findings illustrate the usefulness of machine leaning techniques in two ways. First, RSF allows us to easily identify the most important predictors of a life event. Second, it allows us to detect and visualize interactions and therefore to identify groups of individuals with different survival probability. 

Abstract: Millions of individuals are required to work from home as part of national efforts to fight COVID-19. To evaluate the employment impact of the pandemic, an important point is whether individuals are able to work from home. This paper estimates the share of jobs that can be performed at home in 23 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries as well as examines the workers’ characteristics associated with such jobs. To carry out this analysis, this paper uses rich harmonised household surveys and presents two measures of teleworkability. The first measure of the feasibility of working from home is borrowed from Dingel and Neiman (2020), while the second closely follows the methodology of Saltiel (2020). We use the second measure as our benchmark, as it is based on a more representative task content of occupations for LAC countries. We find that the share of individuals who are able to work from home varies from 7% in Guatemala to 16% in the Bahamas. We document considerable variation in the potential to work from home across occupations, industries, regions and workers’ socioeconomic characteristics. Our results show that some individuals are better positioned to cope with the current situation than others. This highlights the need to assist the most vulnerable workers in the context of the global pandemic. 

Abstract: The objective of this paper is twofold: first, to determine the immigrants’ ethnic identity, i.e. the degree of identification to the culture and society of the country of origin and the host country and second, to investigate the impact of ethnic identity on the immigrants’ employment outcomes. Using rich survey data from France and relying on a polychoric principal component analysis, this paper proposes two richer measures of ethnic identity than the ones used in the literature, namely: i) the degree of commitment to the origin country culture and ii) the extent to which the individual holds multiple identities. The paper investigates the impact of the ethnic identity measures on the employment outcomes of immigrants in France. The results show that having multiple identities improves the employment outcomes of the migrants and contribute to help design effective post-immigration policies. 

Abstract: A growing concern in Western countries is the fact that immigrants might adopt oppositional identities. Although identity is expected to affect the economic outcomes of immigrants, little is known about the factors that influence the identity choice of the migrants and thus, their employment outcomes. This study investigates the effect of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the process of identity formation and the employment outcomes of Turkish immigrants in Germany. Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, this study relies on a difference-in-differences strategy to compare the outcomes of Turks with non-Turks before and after the attacks. The results show that Turks have adopted more extreme identities after 9/11 compared to non-Turks: they are more likely to feel completely German; they are less likely to feel in some respects Turkish whereas they are more likely to feel mostly Turkish. There is no significant impact of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the Turks’ employment outcomes relative to non-Turks. 

Abstract: This methodological brief provides a detailed description of an innovative approach that utilizes big data from online job boards and applies natural language processing (NLP) to extract information on skills. The brief outlines the methodological framework, including data processing and analytical steps, enabling researchers to replicate the findings and adapt the approach to study skills trends in other contexts or datasets. It serves as a practical guide for researchers and practitioners looking to apply these techniques in their own studies or tailor them to specific research questions.

Abstract: This brief presents a novel methodology that leverages online vacancy data and natural language processing (NLP) to measure job amenities across different country contexts. The methodology employs a taxonomy comprising 16 amenity subcategories, organized into five broad categories. It is specifically designed for vacancy data and can be adapted to country-specific contexts. Alongside wages, non-wage job attributes are an important aspect of what characterizes decent work. Mesuring job amenities through vacancy data allows answering key questions such as: what matters for attracting talent? Are high-paying firms also high-satisfaction firms, or do they offset better amenities with lower wages? Moreover, are these trends consistent across different groups of workers? While it is well-established that workers have a significant willingness to pay for non-wage amenities, the nuances of how these preferences are exploited or accommodated by firms remain underexplored.