Irina Zviadadze

Assistant Professor of Finance

Curriculum Vitae [CV]                    Google Scholar Citations                                                        

Research Interests: Macro-Based Asset Pricing, Bayesian Econometrics

Working Papers
"Term structure of risk in macrofinance models", May 2017
Abstract: I propose a model-based approach to characterize the behavior of asset prices at long horizons. Empirical models with alternative sources of risk premium describe the short-term dynamics of asset prices and roll them over into the long-run. Shock elasticities or impulse response functions adapted for asset prices reveal how different macroeconomic shocks propagate in asset prices across alternative investment horizons. The resulting term structure of risk in asset prices can serve as a performance measure for structural models. As an application, I examine the term structure of equity risk. I find that aggregate volatility shocks alone, in contrast to other types of shocks, can generate the realistic level and shape of the term structure of equity risk premium. 

Abstract: I relate the downward sloping term structure of currency carry returns to compensations for currency exposures to macroeconomic risk embedded in the joint dynamics of US consumption, inflation, nominal interest rate, and their stochastic variance. The interest rate and inflation shocks play a prominent role. Higher yield currencies exhibit higher multi-period exposures to these shocks. The prices of these risk exposures are positive and sizeable across all investment horizons. The interest rate shock operates qualitatively similar to the long-run risk of Bansal and Yaron (2004). 
"Crash Risk in Currency Returns" (with M. Chernov and J. Graveline), forthcoming, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Abstract: We quantify crash risk in currency returns. To accomplish this task, we develop and estimate an empirical model of exchange rate dynamics using daily data for four currencies relative to the US dollar: the Australian dollar, the British pound, the Swiss franc, and the Japanese yen.  The model includes (i) normal shocks with stochastic variance, (ii) jumps up and down in the exchange rate, and (iii) jumps in the variance.  We identify these components using data on exchange rates and at-the-money implied variances. We find that crash risk is time-varying. The probability of an upward (downward) jump in the exchange rate, associated with depreciation (appreciation) of the US dollar, is increasing in the domestic (foreign) interest rate. The probability of a jump in variance is increasing in the variance but is not related to interest rates.  Many of the jumps in exchange rates are associated with macroeconomic and political news, but jumps in variance are not. On average, jumps account for 25% of total currency risk (and can be as high as 40%), as measured by the entropy of  exchange rate changes, over horizons of one to three months. The dollar carry index, which is based on 21 exchange rates, retains these features.  A simple calibration analysis using option-implied smiles suggests that jump risk is priced.

Last modified: March, 2017