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The future depends on the following assumptions:
- dieselisation of Europe will continue
- MARPOL 2020 will come into force by at least 2025, after the 2018 study
- Asian & Middle Eastern refineries will continue to use heavy crudes for more middle distillates, to be exported to the European market
- US refiners will pick pace in order to meet North American demand for gasoline, thus no longer a need for the European gasoline Surplus.
Figure fromWood Mackenzie Report.
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