The Banana!!! Watch

The "Bananas!!"

Through mid-2023 the global temperature anomaly began to increase to the point where September set a new record of +0.93ºC, this shattering the previous September record (set in 2020) by a record margin. The appearance of this new record was described as “absolutely gobsmackingly bananas.”

While September 2023 remains the record all-monthly global temperature anomaly by some margin, the elevated global temperatures persist and have yet to be properly explained. Various contributing factors have been suggested for this sudden boost to the underlying man-made global warming. Yet no set of factors has been proposed that properly explain the "bananas!!" Warming resulting from the El Niño of 2023 would have arrived later and would have dissipated sooner. The solar cycle which is peaking isn't strong enough. Nor is the estimated forcing from reduced marine fuel pollution following new regulations of 2020. Likewise the warming from the water vapour ejected into the stratosphere by the January 2022 Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption or the potential feedback due to changes in climatic circulation.

This lack of resolution has led some to re-evaluate the various factors affecting global temperature, often in a speculative manner that is not helpful to the broader assessment of climate change.

Banana!! Watch

One aspect of the "bananas!!" that gets little attention is how it is evolving. Does it represent an acceleration in the rate of global warming? Or is it a one-off but significant long-term increase in warming? Or will it become a short-lived episode of increased warmth imposed on the rising man-made global warming? The different temperature records (global surface, northern & southern hemisphere, sea surface, lower troposphere) should bring answers to those questions and also provide some indication of what has been driving the "bananas!!"