Research
Publication
Effects of Monetary Policy on Household Expectations: The Role of Homeownership with Shihan Xie and Choongryul Yang (Accepted, Journal of Monetary Economics)
A New Indicator of Common Wage Inflation with Han Chen and Michael Kister (Accepted, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking)
Duration Structure of Unemployment Hazards and the Trend Unemployment Rate (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control)
The Role of Observed and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Duration of Unemployment (Journal of Applied Econometrics) Online appendix Federal Reserve Board Working Paper version
Measuring Labor-Force Participation and the Incidence and Duration of Unemployment with James D. Hamilton (Review of Economic Dynamics, most downloaded paper) Online appendix, Data and code to implement. Econbrowser article: Measuring unemployment and labor-force participation Interpreting unemployment numbers; Brookings article: Hutchins Roundup; VoxEU article: Measuring unemployment and labour force participation during the COVID-19 pandemic
The Cyclicality of On-the-Job Search Effort with Ling Shao (The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics) Previously circulated under the title “Precautionary on-the-job search over the business cycle” Federal Reserve Board Working Paper version
Heterogeneity and Unemployment Dynamics with James D. Hamilton (Journal of Business & Economic Statistics) Data and code to implement NBER Working Paper version , Federal Reserve Board Working Paper version , Check out Vox article and Econbrowser article on this research: Unemployment Dynamics (05/07/2014), Cancer and Age (05/18/2014), Factors in long-term unemployment (12/08/2015)
Policy notes
Factors in Unemployment Dynamics (FEDS Notes) with James D. Hamilton cited by The Hill Forbes
A New Indicator of Common Wage Inflation (FEDS Notes) with Han Chen and Michael Kister
Index of Common Inflation Expectation (FEDS Notes) with Chad Fulton
A new estimate of trend unemployment rate in Korea (in Korean) with Samil Oh
Working papers
(Labor markets)
The Dual U.S. Labor Market Uncovered with Bart Hobijn and Ayşegül Şahin (Submitted) FRBOG, UGhent Empirical Macro 2022; NBER SI 2022; SEA 2022; NBER-EFG 2022, FRBNY, FR System Econometrics 2022
Dynamic Beveridge Curve Accounting with Leland D. Crane Link to arXiv NEP-DGE Blog article on this research is here.
(Inflation)
Common and Idiosyncratic Inflation (coming soon) with Matteo Luciani (2nd R&R)
Relative Prices and Pure Inflation since the Mid-1990s with Matteo Luciani (New draft coming soon) IAAE, St Louis Fed Applied Time-Series Workshop 2021, CEF-CMS 2022, Phili Fed- Macro Workshop 2023, Federal Reserve Board 2023.
(Econometric methodology)
Revealing Cluster Structures Based on Mixed Sampling Frequencies with Yeonwoo Rho and Yun Liu Link to arXiv FR System Econometrics 2020
Work in Progress
1. Disagreement about the Term Structure of Inflation Expectations with Leland Farmer (draft available upon request) St Louis Fed Applied Time-Series Workshop 2023; IAAE 2023; Federal Reserve Board (2023); University of Miami (2023); University of Iowa (2024); Duke-UVA-FRB Richmond Conference (2024); NBER-SI 2024 scheduled.
2. Inflation During the COVID Era : A High-frequency Approach with Simon Smith (draft available upon request) Richmond Fed (2024), Econometric Society North America Meeting (2024), NBER-SI 2024 scheduled.
3. (Re-)Connecting Inflation and the Labor Market: A Tale of Two Curves with Jeremy Rudd (draft available upon request)
4. Portfolio-driven household attention with Shihan Xie (draft coming soon), AEA 2024
5. Quantifying the FOMC's Monetary Policy Stance based on Text with Jesse Wedewer (draft available upon request)
6. Sectoral Employment Dynamics through the Lens of a Nonstationary Dynamic Factor Model with Matteo Luciani CEF 2022; FRB Lunch Workshop 2022.
Dormant Papers
Discussions
6. Adjustments along the intensive margin and wages: Evidence from the euro area and the US (2021, IZA) slides
5. Identifying Modern Macro Equations with Old Shocks by Regis Barnichon and Geert Mesters (2020, ASSA) slides
4. Financial Frictions and Un(der)employment Insurance by Marco Brianti and Tzuo Hann Law (November 2018, SEA) slides
3. Designing a Simple Loss Function for the Fed: Does the dual mandate make sense? by Davide Debortoli, Jinill Kim, Jesper Linde, and Ricardo Nunes (November 2018, SEA) slides
2. Regional Inequality in the U.S. : Evidence from City-level Purchasing Power by Chi-Young Choi and Alexander Chudik (June 2018, KAEA) slides
1.The Pervasive Importance of Tightness in Labor-Market Volatility by Robert Hall and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl (May 2017, FRB) slides