Welcome to Hie Joo's Home Page.

I am an economist at the Federal Reserve Board. 
Research interest: labor market, time-series econometrics and forecasting. 

The view and materials on this website do not reflect the views of 
the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or other members of its staff.

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Unobserved heterogeneity and the shift of composition in the inflows are the key to understand the unemployment dynamics.
                       "Heterogeneity and Unemployment Dynamics"(2016) coauthored with James D. Hamilton
       Number of newly unemployed type H and L individuals      Fraction of variance of error in forecasting unemployment 
      (Red: Inflows of type L workers with low job finding rate          at different horizons attributable to separate factors
             due to unobserved individual attributes)                                      (Black: contribution of type L inflows)

Who are the type L workers? They are those who report "permanent separation" as their "reason for unemployment".
Permanent job loss is the observed individual characteristics crucial in the aggregate dynamics of unemployment. 
                                           "Heterogeneity in the Dynamics of Disaggregate Unemployment (2016)"
                                                           Type L workers by reason for unemployment
                                              (Red: Type L permanent job losers, Pink: Total type L workers)