My dissertation examines the consequences of targeted government programs for political behavior and human development, with a focus on the effects of conditional cash transfers (CCTs) in Latin America. Three main research questions are analyzed: (1) what is the effect of CCT participation on political participation; (2) how do CCTs affect political participation; and (3) what are the consequences of CCTs for local policy and health outcomes?
My central argument is that CCTs spur broad political participation among beneficiaries, and that both the program’s cash transfers and its continuation requirements play an important role in driving increased political activity. A new Policy Push Model is introduced to explain how program transfers and continuation requirements work together to encourage political participation among beneficiaries, with an emphasis on the development of non-material resources.
The analysis utilizes a wide variety of evidence, including experimental data, observational survey data across several Latin American countries, my own original survey in Mexico, as well as in-depth interviews and focus groups in Mexico. The different sources of data provide strong support for the Policy Push Model. Overall, the evidence indicates that CCTs increase political participation among beneficiaries; the program's continuation requirements play an important role in driving increased political activity; and the causal pathway to increased political activity involves the creation of non-material resources.
Finally, the feedback effects on local policy are explored, and the available evidence suggests that CCTs shape some local election outcomes and the provision of local services. In particular, CCTs have a positive effect on the provision of sewerage services. This finding identifies an alternative pathway that connects CCTs to improved health outcomes.