Accepted by REStat. Here you find the final draft, the online appendix, the readme file for replication codes and the dataset.
The replication codes (with intermediate results) are too large to be uploaded here and you can find them at the following URL:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bz3GDXRLQ5paNGIzM29WUE1lYW8/view?usp=sharing