The campaign for the Scottish referendum will definitely show the weakness of nationalist's arguments
The referendum on Scottish independence from the UK that took place on 18 September 2014 was rejected by Scots with 55% of the votes. But recently the Scottish First Minister, Ms. Sturgeon, has announced her intention to promote another independence referendum, since Brexit represents a "material change". In particular, the reason behind the next referendum is that the Scots massively voted to remain in the EU (62%) but their will has been overturned by English (and Welsh) people. This allows the Scottish nationalists to reaffirm their complaints about the dominance of England in the UK.
It is not clear when the referendum will take place. Ms. Sturgeon wants to vote by the end of 2018, while unionists prefer to postpone it at least after the end of the Brexit negotiations, allowing the Scots to make their decision with a clear picture of the relationship in place between the UK and the EU. But regardless of the actual referendum date, it will be interesting to see how the two sides will manage the huge contradictions emerging between the Brexit and Scoxit campaigns.
Indeed, the Scottish nationalists will mainly propose the same old mantra of "take back control" - basically the European version of Trump's "America first". The irony is that such slogans are the same adopted last year by Brexiters, thus it is not clear how MPs who backed Brexit will oppose a Scoxit based on the same arguments.
At the same time, the Scottish nationalists will face similar contradictions. If they wanted to remain in the EU, it doesn't make sense to leave also the UK. Both unions imply a transfer of sovereignty to supranational level, thus there is no reason to sustain one union and oppose the other one. If the assumption is that "take bake control" is the winning card, supporting the EU doesn't make sense; and if the assumption is that international cooperation is necessary, leaving also the UK (after having lost the EU) is a bad decision.
Instead, if the plan is to leave the UK and soon after rejoin the EU, it should be carefully considered which of the two memberships can be more favorable for Scotland. From an economic prospective, Scotland's biggest trading partner is the rest of the UK; leaving the UK, Scotland would also lose its seats on the UN Security Council, on G7, and would give up other benefits. On the other hand, by joining the EU, Scotland would gain free access to the European single market and would belong to a club with more political relevance at international level and with a bigger scale to better address global issues (defence, counter terrorism, climate change); moreover, after the departure of England, an English-speaking country like Scotland inside the EU could be very attractive for both multinationals and people.
These kinds of contradictions show how populist's arguments are devoid of real contents and based on illusionary political slogans. Retaining sovereignty at national level - something that might sound good in an electoral campaign - is completely useless, indeed harmful, when it comes at cost of losing your say in international bodies, giving up cooperation in essential fields and condemning your country to international irrelevance.
2017.03.26