IMF Working Paper Publications
"Europe's Productivity Weakness: Firm-Level Roots and Remedies," with Oyun Erdene Adilbish, Diego Cerdeiro, Romain Duval, Luca Mazzone, Lorenzo Rotunno, Hasan Toprak, Maryam Vaziri, IMF WP/25/40. (VoxEU Blog)
"Policy Responses to High Energy and Food Prices" with David Amaglobeli, Mengfei Gu, Emine Hanedar, Celine Thevenot, IMF WP/23/74
"Evaluating the Costs of Government Credit Support Programs during COVID-19: International Evidence," with Deborah Lucas. IMF WP 23/023 (Brookings Blog)
"The Effects of Economic Shocks on Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations," with Yoosoon Chang, Fabio Gomez-Rodrigues. IMF WP 22/132.
"Fiscal Policy for Mitigating the Social Impact of High Energy and Food Prices," with David Amaglobeli, Emine Hanedar, and Celine Thevenot. (IMF blog, Bloomberg, Reuters)
"Trust what you hear: Policy communications, expectations, and fiscal credibility," with Nicolas End. IMF WP/22/36
3. "Zombies on the Brink: Evidence from Japan on the Reversal of Monetary Policy Effectiveness," with Deniz Igan and Do Lee. IMF WP/21/44
4. "Firm Exit Patterns and Post-COVID Cleansing Mechanism: Evidence from Japan," with Yukiko U. Saito. Vox EU
5. "Demographics and the Housing Market: Japan's Disappearing Cities" with Yuko Hashimoto, Xiaoxiao Zhang. IMF WP/20/200
6. "Structural Changes in Japanese Firms: Business Dynamism in an Aging Society" with Arata Ito, Yukiko U. Saito, Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen. IMF WP/20/182
7. "What are the Effects of the COVID-19 Crisis on Firm Exits in Japan?" (in Japanese), RIETI Column
8. "Shrinkonomics: Lessons from Japan" with Todd Schneider, Finance and Development, March 2020 (New York Times)
9. "Structural Changes in Japanese SMEs: Business Dynamism in Aging Society and Inter-Firm Transaction Network" with Arata Ito, Yukiko Umeno Saito, Anh Thi-Ngoc Nguyen. RIETI Policy Discussion Paper 20-P-003
10. "Structural Changes in Firm Dynamics: From Inter-Firm Network and Geospatial Perspectives" with Yoshiaki Ogura, Yukiko Umeno Saito. RIETI Policy Discussion Paper 19-P-031.
11. "Achieving the Bank of Japan's Inflation Target" with Rahul Anand and Yaroslav Hul. IMF WP/19/229.
12. "What Do Deviations from Covered Interest Parity and Higher FX Hedging Costs Mean for Asia?" with Anne Oeking, Kenneth Kang, and Changyong Rhee. IMF WP/19/169. (Bloomberg)
13. "Productivity Drag from Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Japan" with Mariana Colacelli. IMF WP/19/137.
14. "More Slack than Meets the Eye? Recent Wage Dynamics in Advanced Economies," with Zsoka Koczan, Weicheng Lian, and Malhar Nabar. IMF WP/18/50.
15. "Portfolio Inflows Eclipsing Banking Inflows: Alternative Facts? with Eugenio Cerutti. IMF WP/18/29.
16. "How Banks React to Negative Rates: Early Evidence from Japan" with John Kandrac, IMF WP 18/11
17. "Extensive Margin Adjustment of Multi-Product Firms and Risk Diversification" with Carlos Viana de Carvalho and Jing Zhou. IMF Working Paper WP/17/146.
18. "Financial Frictions and the Great Productivity Slowdown" with Romain Duval, Yannick Timmer (May 2017), IMF WP/17/129, submitted. (in Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg)
19. "Singapore's Export Elasticities: A Disaggregated Look into the Role of Global Value Chains and Economic Complexity" with Elif Arbatli, (March 2016), IMF WP/16/52.
20. "Dynamic Connectedness of Asian Equity Market" with Roberto Guimaraes-Filho, (March 2016), IMF WP/16/57.
21. "China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown" with Jaewoo Lee, Wei Liao and Dulani Seneviratne, (May 2016), IMF WP/16/105.
22. "Should Korea Worry About a Permanently Weak Yen?" with Jack Joo K. Ree and Seoen (Thelma) Choi, (July 2015), IMF WP/15/158. (in Media)
Other IMF Policy Contributions
1. Asia's Export Performance: What is Holding Back? with Joong Shik Kang, (April 2015), Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific.
2. The Impact of Yen Depreciation on Japanese and Korean Exports: Is This Time Different? with Jack Joo K. Ree, (April 2015), Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific.
3. Financial Spillovers in Asia: Evidence from Equity Markets, with Roberto Guimaraes-Filho, (April 2015), Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific.
4. Singapore's Trade Elasticities: A Disaggregated Look Into the Role of Global Value Chains and Complexity, with Elif C. Arbatli (July 2015)
- Singapore: Selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 15/200; Macroeconomic Review, October 2015, Box Contribution, Monetary Authority of Singapore. (link)
5. Navigating the Transition: Trade and Financial Spillovers from China (April 2016), contributed to Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, Chapter 2.
6. China's Evolving Trade with Advanced Upstream Economies and Commodity Exporters (April 2016), contributed to Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, Chapter 2.
7. China's Changing Trade and the Implications for the CLMV Economies with Koshy Mathai, Geoff Gottlieb, Sung Eun Jung, Jochen Schmittmann, Jiangyan Yu (September 2016), Asia and Pacific Departmental Paper 16/01.
8. Negative Interest Rate Policies - Initial Experience and Assessments (August 2017), IMF Policy Paper
9. Recent Wage Dynamics in Advanced Economics: Drivers and Implications (October 2017), World Economic Outlook, Chapter 2.
10. Land of the Rising Robots (June 2018) with Todd Schneider, Anh Le Van, Finance and Development
11. Fiscal Monitor, April 2021, October 2021 Chapter 2, April 2022
12. The Return to Fiscal Rules, IMF Staff Discussion Note, No. 2022/2
13. The State as Financier of Last Resort, IMF Staff Discussion Note, No. 2022/1
14. Fiscal Monitor, April 2023, Chapter 1, 2023, co-lead
15. Towards an Inclusive, Equitable and Sustainable National Pension System in Iraq (joint with ILO, World Bank), 2024
16. Europe's Productivity Slowdown, Regional Economic Outlook: Europe, October 2024 (lead)
17. Long-Term Spending Pressures in Europe, IMF Departmental Paper, 2025