Research

Publications


Strengthening Work Requirements? Forecasting Impacts of Reforming Cash Assistance Rules (with Josep M. Nadal-Fernandez and Kane Schrader), Accepted at Policy Insights in Journal of Policy Analysis and Management [Link] 

Work requirements are perhaps the most controversial aspect of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program, America's sole federal cash assistance program for low-income families with children. In 2025, for the first time in nearly 20 years, the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 (FRA) will implement policy changes intended to strengthen states' work requirements. However, researchers' and policymakers' understanding of how FRA will impact states' compliance with federal requirements is hampered by a lack of research and publicly-available data.

We tie information from reports submitted to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services that we collected to administrative caseload and expenditure data to document several strategies that states currently use to comply with federal work requirements. We estimate that FRA will increase the stringency of work requirements in 23 states and that five states will begin to fall short of requirements. We note that several compliance strategies available to these states do not encourage work. We discuss changes to states' work requirements that would promote better long-term economic and labor market outcomes for TANF recipients.


The Effects of Child Care Subsidies on Paid Child Care Participation and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the Child and Dependent Care Credit, Accepted at ILR Review [Link] [Non-technical policy brief]

The Child and Dependent Care Credit (CDCC), a tax credit based on income and child care expenses, reduces child care costs for working families. The Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act expanded the CDCC in 2003, generating differential increases in generosity across states and family sizes. Using data from the March Current Population Survey, the author finds that a $100 increase in CDCC generosity increases paid child care participation by 0.6 percentage points among single mothers and 2.2 percentage points among married mothers with children younger than 13 years old. The author also finds that CDCC benefits increase labor supply among married mothers, who may experience long-run earnings gains.


How Would a Permanently Refundable Child and Dependent Care Credit Affect Eligibility, Benefits, and Incentives? 2022. Public Finance Review 50(1). [Link] [Non-technical policy brief] 

The federal Child and Dependent Care Credit (CDCC) subsidizes child care costs for working families. Before 2021, the CDCC was nonrefundable, so only families with positive tax liability after other deductions benefited. I estimate how CDCC eligibility, benefits, and marginal tax rates would change if the credit were made permanently refundable. Under refundability, some 5 percent of single parents gain eligibility and receive on average over $1,000 annually. Eligibility increases are largest among Black and Hispanic households. Increases in marginal tax rates among moderate-income taxpayers are small.


The Effects of Welfare Time Limits on Access to Financial Resources: Evidence from the 2010s. 2022. Southern Economic Journal 88(4). [Link] [Non-technical policy brief]

The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 established the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program within the United States. TANF mandated 60-month lifetime time limits for federal cash assistance dollars. Because states reserve the right to set their own stricter or more generous time limits, the 60-month lifetime limit did not bind in all cases. In recent years, however, several states imposed TANF time limits for the first time or made existing time limits more stringent. Using administrative and survey data, I find that stricter time limits decrease TANF participation within the past twelve months by 26 percent. Unlike previous research, I find heterogeneous effects of time limits on labor supply. I show that expected effects on employment and earnings decrease—and eventually become negative—as a state's unemployment rate increases. Evidence suggests that removing welfare recipients from TANF during periods of high unemployment inhibits their access to financial resources.


Nudges to Increase Completion of Welfare Applications: Experimental Evidence from Michigan (with Christopher J. O'Leary and Dallas Oberlee). 2021. Journal of Behavioral Public Administration 4(2). [Link] [Non-technical policy brief] [Code]

The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program provides cash assistance to very-low-income families with children. Application procedures to receive TANF benefits, however, often involve substantial transaction costs likely to reduce take-up. Using a randomized controlled trial design, we estimate the marginal effects of a personalized telephone-call reminder to increase TANF application completion in southwest Michigan, where applicants must visit a regional public employment office at least four times to complete their application for benefits. Compared to a generic telephone call, we find that personalizing reminder calls did not increase participation in the initial appointment at the public employment office. Additionally, reminders before remaining appointments, combined with the personalized reminder call to attend the orientation, did not increase attendance at appointments after orientation.


Working Papers


Not Just for Kids: Child and Dependent Care Credit Benefits for Adult Care  (with Yulya Truskinovsky), R&R at National Tax Journal [Link] [Non-technical policy brief] [Online appendix]

The Child and Dependent Care Credit (CDCC) subsidizes caregiving expenses for working households with a disabled spouse or adult dependent, but few childless households claim it. We examine the value of the CDCC for households caring for adults. We find that 8 percent of 51- to 65-year-olds had a coresident spouse or parent likely to be a qualifying individual in recent years. We document how state and federal benefits decrease post-tax costs of caregiving services across states and household types. Making the CDCC refundable would nearly double the number of eligible spousal caregivers aged 51 to 65. 


Child and Dependent Care Credit Value over Time


Technical Reports

Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessments (RESEA) in Maryland


Non-Technical Policy Writing

"The Role of Taxation in Family Inequality: Possibilities for Reform" (with Dylan Bellisle and Bethany Letiecq). Report prepared for National Council on Family Relations, in press.

"Sandwich Generation: Caring for Children and Older Adults" (with Yulya Truskinovsky). In "Policies for Place: How to Make Sustainable Investments in Communities" (with Kathleen Bolter, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein, Michelle Miller-Adams, Lee Adams, Brian J. Asquith, Alfonso Hernandez, Kyle Huisman, Iryna V. Lendel, Bridget F. Timmeney, and Beth C. Truesdale). Report prepared for W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 2024. [Link] [Video]

"The Tax Break That Could Help More Americans Work—If They Knew About It" (Op-Ed with Yulya Truskinovsky) Barron's, June 27, 2023. [Link]

"With Federal Child Care Legislation Abandoned, It's Up to States to Help Working Families" (Op-Ed with John C. Austin) Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program, February 13, 2023. [Link]

“State Tax Strategies to Reduce Care Costs.” In “Building Research and Practice to Achieve Community Prosperity” (with Kathleen Bolter, Michelle Miller-Adams, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein, Kyle Huisman, Bridget F. Timmeney, Brian J. Asquith, Lee Adams, Jessica Brown, Gerrit Anderson, and Allison Colosky). Report prepared for W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 2022. [Link]

“Child Care Tax Credit Can End No-Win Choice for Working Parents” (Op-Ed) The Hill, March 30, 2021. [Link]