Research

Publications


How Would a Permanently Refundable Child and Dependent Care Credit Affect Eligibility, Benefits, and Incentives? 2022. Public Finance Review 50(1). [Link] [Non-technical policy brief] 

The federal Child and Dependent Care Credit (CDCC) subsidizes child care costs for working families. Before 2021, the CDCC was nonrefundable, so only families with positive tax liability after other deductions benefited. I estimate how CDCC eligibility, benefits, and marginal tax rates would change if the credit were made permanently refundable. Under refundability, some 5 percent of single parents gain eligibility and receive on average over $1,000 annually. Eligibility increases are largest among Black and Hispanic households. Increases in marginal tax rates among moderate-income taxpayers are small.


The Effects of Welfare Time Limits on Access to Financial Resources: Evidence from the 2010s. 2022. Southern Economic Journal 88(4). [Link] [Non-technical policy brief]

The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 established the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program within the United States. TANF mandated 60-month lifetime time limits for federal cash assistance dollars. Because states reserve the right to set their own stricter or more generous time limits, the 60-month lifetime limit did not bind in all cases. In recent years, however, several states imposed TANF time limits for the first time or made existing time limits more stringent. Using administrative and survey data, I find that stricter time limits decrease TANF participation within the past twelve months by 26 percent. Unlike previous research, I find heterogeneous effects of time limits on labor supply. I show that expected effects on employment and earnings decrease—and eventually become negative—as a state's unemployment rate increases. Evidence suggests that removing welfare recipients from TANF during periods of high unemployment inhibits their access to financial resources.


Nudges to Increase Completion of Welfare Applications: Experimental Evidence from Michigan (with Christopher J. O'Leary and Dallas Oberlee). 2021. Journal of Behavioral Public Administration 4(2). [Link] [Non-technical policy brief] [Code]

The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program provides cash assistance to very-low-income families with children. Application procedures to receive TANF benefits, however, often involve substantial transaction costs likely to reduce take-up. Using a randomized controlled trial design, we estimate the marginal effects of a personalized telephone-call reminder to increase TANF application completion in southwest Michigan, where applicants must visit a regional public employment office at least four times to complete their application for benefits. Compared to a generic telephone call, we find that personalizing reminder calls did not increase participation in the initial appointment at the public employment office. Additionally, reminders before remaining appointments, combined with the personalized reminder call to attend the orientation, did not increase attendance at appointments after orientation.


Working Papers


The Effects of Child Care Subsidies on Paid Child Care Participation and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the Child and Dependent Care Credit, R&R at ILR Review [Link] [Non-technical policy brief] [Online appendix]

The Child and Dependent Care Credit (CDCC), a tax credit based on income and child care expenses, reduces child care costs for working families. The Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act expanded the CDCC in 2003, generating differential increases in generosity across states and family sizes. The author documents CDCC eligibility and expenditures across income and demographic groups over time. Using data from the March Current Population Survey, the author finds that a 10 percent increase in benefits increases paid child care participation by four to five percent among households with children younger than 13 years old. The author also finds that CDCC benefits increase labor supply among married mothers. Labor supply responses among married mothers with very young children suggest that benefits may generate long-run earnings gains. 


Not Just for Kids: Child and Dependent Care Credit Benefits for Adult Care  (with Yulya Truskinovsky), R&R at National Tax Journal [Link] [Non-technical policy brief] [Online appendix]

The Child and Dependent Care Credit (CDCC) subsidizes caregiving expenses for working households with a disabled spouse or adult dependent, but few childless households claim it. We examine the value of the CDCC for households caring for adults. We find that, as of 2016, over 10 percent of 50- to 65-year-olds had a coresident spouse or parent likely to be a qualifying individual. We document how state and federal benefits decrease post-tax costs of caregiving services across states and household types. Making the CDCC refundable would nearly double the number of eligible spousal caregivers aged 50 to 65. 


Technical Reports

Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessments (RESEA) in Maryland


Non-Technical Policy Writing

"The Tax Break That Could Help More Americans Work—If They Knew About It" (Op-Ed with Yulya Truskinovsky) Barron's, June 27, 2023. [Link]

"With Federal Child Care Legislation Abandoned, It's Up to States to Help Working Families" (Op-Ed with John C. Austin) Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program, February 13, 2023. [Link]

“State Tax Strategies to Reduce Care Costs.” In “Building Research and Practice to Achieve Community Prosperity” (with Kathleen Bolter, Michelle Miller-Adams, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein, Kyle Huisman, Bridget F. Timmeney, Brian J. Asquith, Lee Adams, Jessica Brown, Gerrit Anderson, and Allison Colosky). Report prepared for W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 2022. [Link]

“Child Care Tax Credit Can End No-Win Choice for Working Parents” (Op-Ed) The Hill, March 30, 2021. [Link]