Current techniques for predicting climate change
are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical mod-
eling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called
"complex system", made up of a large number of interacting
elements. We show that, in such systems, owing to the partic-
ularly large sensitivity to initial conditions, the approach of
a possible tipping over a critical point cannot be evidenced
"by construction" using numerical modeling, due to the di-
vergence of computation time in the vicinity of the tipping
point. On the other hand, the increasing amplitudes of ob-
served climatic instabilities seem to be an obvious sign of
the approach of such a tipping point, easily interpreted as a
"critical softening", well known in the theory of dynamical
systems, that would bring us irreversibly into a new and to-
tally unexplored equilibrium state, except for a significantly
higher temperature and in a much closer time than expected
from numerical modeling extrapolations. Thus, maintaining
climate warming around 1.5oC or 2oC by 2030 or 2050 ap-
pears fairly unrealistic unless worldwide drastic green house
gases reduction measures are immediately taken and applied.
Louchet, F. Weather instabilities as a warning sign for a nearby climatic tipping point?
https://doi.org/10.48550/ARXIV.1609.05098, 2016.
Louchet, F. How far can we trust climate change predictions? arXiv:2204.11619v3 [physics.ao-ph], 2022a
https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.11619v3
Louchet, F., Climate change, Drifting or tipping? The answer of Physics. 2022.b https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_temperature_record
Current techniques for predicting climate change
are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical mod-
eling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called
"complex system", made up of a large number of interacting
elements. We show that, in such systems, owing to the partic-
ularly large sensitivity to initial conditions, the approach of
a possible tipping over a critical point cannot be evidenced
"by construction" using numerical modeling, due to the di-
vergence of computation time in the vicinity of the tipping
point. On the other hand, the increasing amplitudes of ob-
served climatic instabilities seem to be an obvious sign of
the approach of such a tipping point, easily interpreted as a
"critical softening", well known in the theory of dynamical
systems, that would bring us irreversibly into a new and to-
tally unexplored equilibrium state, except for a significantly
higher temperature and in a much closer time than expected
from numerical modeling extrapolations. Thus, maintaining
climate warming around 1.5oC or 2oC by 2030 or 2050 ap-
pears fairly unrealistic unless worldwide drastic green house
gases reduction measures are immediately taken and applied.
Louchet, F. Weather instabilities as a warning sign for a nearby climatic tipping point?
https://doi.org/10.48550/ARXIV.1609.05098, 2016.
Louchet, F. How far can we trust climate change predictions? arXiv:2204.11619v3 [physics.ao-ph], 2022a
https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.11619v3
Louchet, F., Climate change, Drifting or tipping? The answer of Physics. 2022.b https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_temperature_record
Louchet, F., Climat : Evolution prévisible ou saut dans l’inconnu ? Conférence, Wissembourg, 9 juin 2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2ZNRH0o_D8
