New and Ongoing Work
Randomized Entry: The Equilibrium Effects of Entry in Digital Financial Markets [NBER WORKING PAPER 33134] [October 2025 (PDF)], AEA RCT REGISTRY (w/ MTN and GCB) [REVISE & RESUBMIT, AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW]
Beliefs Over Contracts, AEA RCT REGISTRY (w/ MTN and Collin Raymond) [PRESENTING]
[We study how firms choose among incentive contracts and how accurately managers predict their effects. Using a survey of managerial beliefs and a large-scale field experiment, we randomly assign agents at the market level to several widely used, expenditure-equivalent incentive schemes. In the field, the best-performing contract increases agent output and firm revenue by over 20% relative to the status quo, despite being ranked lower by managers, whereas the worst-performing contract performs as predicted. Managers correctly identify underperforming contracts but systematically underestimate top-performing ones. We document the sources of performance differences—labor supply responses rather than selection or pricing and the determinants of managerial predictability: contract complexity and managerial hierarchy. Our results highlight the importance of contract design for firm performance and reveal systematic limits to managerial cognition in shaping incentives.]
Upgrading Financial Markets, AEA RCT REGISTRY (w/ CAFOD, Orange Money, GT Bank) [PRESENTING]
[Is expanding financial infrastructure sufficient for market development, or is active accountability the missing link—and through what channels? To answer these questions, we run a field experiment across 200 rural unserved communities in Sierra Leone. We upgrade Village Savings and Loans Associations (VSLAs) to serve as mobile money and bank agents. We cross-randomize this with a consumer feedback mechanism that allows households to evaluate providers monthly. While market entry substantially expands access, we find that feedback triggers a fundamental shift in provider behavior, inducing large operational improvements (+29 pp; 130%). This behavioral change—centered on improved privacy and consumer protection practices—strengthens consumer trust and, as a result, generates large additional gains in usage and business revenues. These upgraded VSLAs also exhibit complementary effects, including greater digitization of contributions, lower default rates, and higher incomes. Viewed through a framework of delegated intermediation, our results show that infrastructure alone is insufficient for sustained market development. Instead, active accountability—implemented through consumer feedback—aligns provider incentives with consumer welfare and is central to designing scalable financial intermediaries.]
The Welfare Effects of Beneficiary Control over the Timing of Cash Transfers, AEA RCT REGISTRY (w/ MoGCSP, Francis Fang, Naureen Karachiwalla and Jason Kerwin) [UNDERWAY]
Publications
Misconduct and Reputation Under Imperfect Information [JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY, 2025, Vol. 133, No. 5, pp. 1460-1496] [Working Paper (PDF)]
The Value of Communication for Mental Health (w/ Belinda Archibong) [Working Paper (PDF)] (v: 2023), Conditionally Accepted, THE ECONOMIC JOURNAL
Moral Hazard in Insurance: Theory and Evidence from a Credit Reform in Ghana [JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS, 2022, Vol. 209 (104633)]
Risk, Informal Institutions, and Index Insurance (w/ Bikramaditya Datta) [JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT, 2022, Vol. 113 (102635)]
Does Bundling Induce Adverse Selection in Insurance? [ECONOMICS LETTERS, 2020, Vol. 196 (109588)]
Disease and Gender Gaps in Human Capital Investment: Evidence from Niger’s 1986 Meningitis Epidemic (w/ Belinda Archibong) [AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW: PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS, 2017, Vol. 107, No. 5: 530-535]
Federal Crop Insurance and The Disincentive to Adapt to Extreme Heat (w/ Wolfram Schlenker) [AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW: PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS, 2015, Vol. 105, No. 5: 262-266]
Other Publications
Digital Public Services Delivery in Ghana (PDF) [BROOKINGS AGI, 2024]
Adapting The U.S. Federal Crop Insurance Program for Climate Change: Critical Lessons for Policy Design (PDF) [ARE UPDATE, 2024]
Digital Payments, [Working Paper (PDF)] (w/ Xavier Giné, Chi Man Cheung) [OXFORD REVIEW OF ECONOMIC POLICY, 2024, Vol. 40, No. 1: 118-128]
Transaction Cost Index, [Report: Transaction Cost Index (PDF)] (w/ X. Giné, W. Blackmon, B. Mwesigwa, A. Zapanta) [INNOVATIONS FOR POVERTY ACTION, 2023]
Climate Change, Epidemics and Inequality, [Working Paper (PDF)] (w/ Belinda Archibong) [REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS AND POLICY, 2023, Vol. 17, No. 2: 1]
The Epidemic Effect: Epidemics, Institutions and Human Capital Development [Working Paper (PDF)] (w/ Belinda Archibong, Uche Ekhator-Mobayode) [JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR AND ORGANIZATION, 2023, Vol. 96, No. 1: 549-566]
Spatial Pattern of Yield Distributions: Implications for Crop Insurance (w/ Jesse Tack, Ardian Harri, Keith Coble) [AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, 2014, Vol. 96, No. 1: 253-268]