New and Ongoing Work
Randomized Entry: The Equilibrium Effects of Entry in Digital Financial Markets [October 2025 (PDF)] [NBER Working Paper (PDF)], AEA RCT REGISTRY (w/ MTN and GCB) [SUBMITTED]
[enlisting non-financial firms to provide retail financial services is a widespread and scalable practice globally. yet, little is known about the equilibrium effects of this market entry approach on firms and consumers, and on markets. we created randomized variation across and within markets to estimate the direct, indirect, and multiplier effects of small microenterprises’ entry into a new market: the market for mobile money services. entry has a negative net effect on firm misconduct in mobile money. there is a positive direct effect but a similar-sized negative indirect effect on prices for non-financial goods/services. market-level price-cost markups decreased, indicating net gains in consumer surplus. we find evidence of within-market revenue reallocation for mobile money, and a large services multiplier: revenues for non-financial goods/services increased by 23%. we show the improvements come from adoption externalities and decreased transaction costs. the results are not only important for welfare and policy, but are key ingredients for advancing basic and applied knowledge on firm entry in industry equilibrium.]
Beliefs Over Contracts, AEA RCT REGISTRY (w/ MTN and Collin Raymond) [PRESENTING]
[we study how firms choose among incentive contracts and how accurately managers predict their effects. using a survey of managerial beliefs and a large-scale field experiment, we randomly assign agents at the market level to several widely used, expenditure-equivalent incentive schemes. in the field, the best-performing contract increases agent output and firm revenue by over 20% relative to the status quo, despite being ranked lower by managers, whereas the worst-performing contract performs as predicted. managers correctly identify underperforming contracts but systematically underestimate top-performing ones. we document the sources of performance differences—labor supply responses and the determinants of managerial predictability: contract complexity and managerial hierarchy. our results highlight the importance of contract design for firm performance and reveal systematic limits to managerial cognition in shaping incentives.]
The Welfare Effects of Beneficiary Control over the Timing of Cash Transfers, AEA RCT REGISTRY (w/ MoGCSP, Francis Fang, Naureen Karachiwalla and Jason Kerwin)
Designing Insurance for Climate Change: The Case of The U.S. Federal Crop Insurance Program (w/ Shresth Garg, Sagar Saxena and Shuo Yu) [SLIDES AVAILABLE]
Publications
Misconduct and Reputation Under Imperfect Information [JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY, 2025, Vol. 133, No. 5, pp. 1460-1496] [Working Paper (PDF)]
The Value of Communication for Mental Health (w/ Belinda Archibong) [Working Paper (PDF)] (v: 2023), Conditionally Accepted, THE ECONOMIC JOURNAL
Moral Hazard in Insurance: Theory and Evidence from a Credit Reform in Ghana [JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS, 2022, Vol. 209 (104633)]
Risk, Informal Institutions, and Index Insurance (w/ Bikramaditya Datta) [JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT, 2022, Vol. 113 (102635)]
Does Bundling Induce Adverse Selection in Insurance? [ECONOMICS LETTERS, 2020, Vol. 196 (109588)]
Disease and Gender Gaps in Human Capital Investment: Evidence from Niger’s 1986 Meningitis Epidemic (w/ Belinda Archibong) [AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW: PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS, 2017, Vol. 107, No. 5: 530-535]
Federal Crop Insurance and The Disincentive to Adapt to Extreme Heat (w/ Wolfram Schlenker) [AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW: PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS, 2015, Vol. 105, No. 5: 262-266]
Spatial Pattern of Yield Distributions: Implications for Crop Insurance (w/ Jesse Tack, Ardian Harri, Keith Coble) [AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, 2014, Vol. 96, No. 1: 253-268]
The Epidemic Effect: Epidemics, Institutions and Human Capital Development [Working Paper (PDF)] (w/ Belinda Archibong, Uche Ekhator-Mobayode) [JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR AND ORGANIZATION, 2023, Vol. 96, No. 1: 549-566]
Other Publications
Digital Public Services Delivery in Ghana - A Viewpoint (PDF) [BROOKINGS AGI, 2024]
Adapting The U.S. Federal Crop Insurance Program for Climate Change: Critical Lessons for Policy Design (PDF) [ARE UPDATE, 2024]
Digital Payments, [Working Paper (PDF)] (w/ Xavier Giné, Chi Man Cheung) [OXFORD REVIEW OF ECONOMIC POLICY, 2024, Vol. 40, No. 1: 118-128]
Transaction Cost Index, [Report: Transaction Cost Index (PDF)] (w/ X. Giné, W. Blackmon, B. Mwesigwa, A. Zapanta) [INNOVATIONS FOR POVERTY ACTION, 2023]
Climate Change, Epidemics and Inequality, [Working Paper (PDF)] (w/ Belinda Archibong) [REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS AND POLICY, 2023, Vol. 17, No. 2: 1]