New and Ongoing Work
Randomized Entry: The Equilibrium Effects of Entry in Digital Financial Markets [NBER WORKING PAPER 33134] [October 2025 (PDF)], AEA RCT REGISTRY (w/ MTN and GCB) [REVISE & RESUBMIT, AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW]
Beliefs Over Contracts, AEA RCT REGISTRY (w/ MTN and Collin Raymond) [PRESENTING]
[We study how firms choose among incentive contracts and how accurately managers predict their effects. Using a survey of managerial beliefs and a large-scale field experiment, we randomly assign agents at the market level to several widely used, expenditure-equivalent incentive schemes. In the field, the best-performing contract increases agent output and firm revenue by over 20% relative to the status quo, despite being ranked lower by managers, whereas the worst-performing contract performs as predicted. Managers correctly identify underperforming contracts but systematically underestimate top-performing ones. We document the sources of performance differences—labor supply responses rather than selection or pricing and the determinants of managerial predictability: contract complexity and managerial hierarchy. Our results highlight the importance of contract design for firm performance and reveal systematic limits to managerial cognition in shaping incentives.]
Upgrading Financial Markets, AEA RCT REGISTRY (w/ CAFOD, Orange Money, GT Bank) [PRESENTING]
The Welfare Effects of Beneficiary Control over the Timing of Cash Transfers, AEA RCT REGISTRY (w/ MoGCSP, Francis Fang, Naureen Karachiwalla and Jason Kerwin) [UNDERWAY]
Publications
Misconduct and Reputation Under Imperfect Information [JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY, 2025, Vol. 133, No. 5, pp. 1460-1496] [Working Paper (PDF)]
The Value of Communication for Mental Health (w/ Belinda Archibong) [Working Paper (PDF)] (v: 2023), Conditionally Accepted, THE ECONOMIC JOURNAL
Moral Hazard in Insurance: Theory and Evidence from a Credit Reform in Ghana [JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS, 2022, Vol. 209 (104633)]
Risk, Informal Institutions, and Index Insurance (w/ Bikramaditya Datta) [JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT, 2022, Vol. 113 (102635)]
Does Bundling Induce Adverse Selection in Insurance? [ECONOMICS LETTERS, 2020, Vol. 196 (109588)]
Disease and Gender Gaps in Human Capital Investment: Evidence from Niger’s 1986 Meningitis Epidemic (w/ Belinda Archibong) [AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW: PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS, 2017, Vol. 107, No. 5: 530-535]
Federal Crop Insurance and The Disincentive to Adapt to Extreme Heat (w/ Wolfram Schlenker) [AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW: PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS, 2015, Vol. 105, No. 5: 262-266]
Other Publications
Digital Public Services Delivery in Ghana (PDF) [BROOKINGS AGI, 2024]
Adapting The U.S. Federal Crop Insurance Program for Climate Change: Critical Lessons for Policy Design (PDF) [ARE UPDATE, 2024]
Digital Payments, [Working Paper (PDF)] (w/ Xavier Giné, Chi Man Cheung) [OXFORD REVIEW OF ECONOMIC POLICY, 2024, Vol. 40, No. 1: 118-128]
Transaction Cost Index, [Report: Transaction Cost Index (PDF)] (w/ X. Giné, W. Blackmon, B. Mwesigwa, A. Zapanta) [INNOVATIONS FOR POVERTY ACTION, 2023]
Climate Change, Epidemics and Inequality, [Working Paper (PDF)] (w/ Belinda Archibong) [REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS AND POLICY, 2023, Vol. 17, No. 2: 1]
The Epidemic Effect: Epidemics, Institutions and Human Capital Development [Working Paper (PDF)] (w/ Belinda Archibong, Uche Ekhator-Mobayode) [JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR AND ORGANIZATION, 2023, Vol. 96, No. 1: 549-566]
Spatial Pattern of Yield Distributions: Implications for Crop Insurance (w/ Jesse Tack, Ardian Harri, Keith Coble) [AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, 2014, Vol. 96, No. 1: 253-268]