Publications (in refereed journals)
1. “Leaning against the global financial cycle” (with A. Ferrero, M. Habib and L. Stracca), 2025, forthcoming, American Economic Journal, Macroeconomics.
2. “Decomposing the monetary policy multiplier” (with O. Jordà and P. Alessandri), 2025, forthcoming, Journal of Monetary Economics. Replication codes
3. “Oil price shocks in real time” (with A. Gazzani and G. Veronese), 2024, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 144, May 2024, 103547. Replication codes
4. “Measuring financial conditions via equal weights averaging” (with A. Bobasu and S. Arrigoni), 2022, IMF Economic Review, 70, 668–697.
5. “The influence of OPEC+ on oil prices: a quantitative assessment” (with D. Quint), 2023, Energy Journal, 44(5), 173-186.
6. “Strategic interactions and price dynamics in the global oil market" (with I. Alonso and V. Di Nino), 2022, Energy Economics, Vol. 107.
7. “Price dividend ratio and long-run stock returns: a score driven state space model” (with D. Delle Monache and I. Petrella), 2020, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics , 39(4), 1054–1065.
8. “The Fundamentals of Safe Assets” (with M. Habib and Livio Stracca), 2020, Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 102(C).
9. "Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs: a non-parametric approach” (with G. Kapetanios and M. Marcellino), 2019, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol 34(7), November/December, 1027-1049.
10. “Short term inflation forecasting: the M.E.T.A. approach” (with A. Silvestrini and G. Sbrana), 2017, International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 33(4), 1065-1081.
11. “A daily indicator of growth for the euro area”, (with V. Aprigliano, C. Foroni, M. Marcellino and G. Mazzi), 2017, International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, vol. 7(1/2).
12. “Common faith or parting ways? A time varying parameter factor analysis of euro area inflation” (with D. Delle Monache and I. Petrella), 2016, Advances in Econometrics, (35), on Dynamic Factor Models. Edited by Eric Hillebrand and Siem Jan Koopman.
13. “Short-term GDP forecasting with a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility” (with M. Porqueddu and M. Marcellino), 2016, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, vol. 34(1), 118-127.
14. “The time varying effect of oil price shocks on euro-area exports” (with M. Riggi), 2015, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59, 75-94.
15. “Failing to Forecast Low Inflation and Phillips Curve Instability: A Euro-Area Perspective” (with M. Riggi), 2015, International Finance, Wiley, vol. 18(1), 47–68.
16. “Forecasting economic activity with targeted predictors” (with G. Bulligan and M. Marcellino), 2015, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), 188-206.
17. “Do food commodity prices have asymmetric effects on euro-area inflation?” (with M. Porqueddu), 2014, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4).
18. “From oil to consumer energy prices: How much asymmetry along the way?”, 2013, Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), 468-473.
19. “Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area, does national information help?” (with R. Cristadoro and G. Saporito), 2013, Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), 1065-1086.
20. “Inflation convergence and divergence within the EMU” (with F. Busetti, L. Forni and A. Harvey), International Journal of Central Banking, 2007, vol. 3(2), 95-121.
Other publications
"An indicator of macro-financial stress for Italy" (with Arianna Miglietta), 2019, Bank of Italy Occasional Papers, No 497.
"A risk dashboard for the Italian economy" (with Fancesco Columba and Alberto Maria Sorrentino), 2019, Bank of Italy Occasional Papers, No 425.
The benefits and costs of adjusting bank capitalisation: evidence from euro area countries, (with various authors) , 2019, ECB Working Paper Series, No 2261 / April 2019.
"Wages and Prices in Italy during the Crisis, the firm's perspective" (with Francesco D’Amuri, Silvia Fabiani, Roberto Sabbatini, Raffaele Tartaglia Polcini, Eliana Viviano and Roberta Zizza), 2015, Bank of Italy Occasional Papers, No. 289.
"Surprise! Euro area inflation has fallen" (with Marianna Riggi), 2014, Bank of Italy Occasional Papers No. 237.
"Energy Markets and the Euro Area Macroeconomy", 2012, ECB Occasional Papers No. 113.