Research

Publications

Marriage and divorce: the role of unemployment insurance (with Bastian Schulz)
Journal of Population Economics, 36(4), 2277-2308, 2023. Online Appendix
see also: DerStandard Ökonomieblog, Sepember 12, 2023. 

Abstract

This paper examines how changes in household-level risk sharing affect the marriage market. We use as our laboratory a German unemployment insurance (UI) reform that tightened means-testing based on the partner’s income. The reduced generosity of UI increased the demand for household-level risk sharing, which lowered the attractiveness of individuals exposed to unemployment risk. Because unemployment risk correlates with non-German nationality, our main finding is that the UI reform led to a decrease in intermarriage. The 2004 expansion of the European Union had a comparable effect on intermarriage for the affected nationalities. Both reforms increased marital stability, which is consistent with better selection by couples. 

Quantifying Domestic Violence in Times of Crisis: An Internet Search Activity-Based Measure for the COVID-19 Pandemic (with Dan Anderberg and Helmut Rainer)
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 185(2), 498-818, 2022.
Earlier version available as CESifo Working Paper No. 8593, September 2020
See also: Significance, 19(4), 28-31, 2022., ifo Schnelldienst, 2022, 75, Nr. 01, 32-34.,"DerStandard Ökonomieblog, December 14, 2021., VoxEU, November 20, 2021.

Abstract

In contrast to widespread concerns that COVID-19 lockdowns have substantially increased the incidence of domestic violence, research based on police-recorded crimes or calls-for-service has typically found small and often even negligible effects. One explanation for this discrepancy is that lockdowns have left victims of domestic violence trapped in-home with their perpetrators, limiting their ability to safely report incidents to the police. To overcome this measurement problem, we propose a model-based algorithm for measuring temporal variation in domestic violence incidence using internet search activity and make precise the conditions under which this measure yields less biased estimates of domestic violence problem during periods of crisis than commonly-used police-recorded crime measures. Analyzing the COVID-19 lockdown in Greater London, we and a 40 percent increase in our internet search-based domestic violence index at the peak occurring 3-6 weeks into the lockdown, 7-8 times larger than the increase in police-recorded crimes and much closer to the increase in helpline calls reported by victim support charities. Applying the same methodology to Los Angeles, we nd strikingly similar results. We conclude that evidence based solely on police-recorded domestic violence incidents cannot reliably inform us about the scale of the domestic violence problem during crises like COVID-19.

Disease and Demographic Development: The Legacy of the Plague (with Uwe Sunde)
Journal of Economic Growth, 26(1), 1-30, 2021. 

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the hypothesis that population shocks such as the repeated outbreaks of the plague affected the timing of the demographic transition. The empirical analysis uses disaggregate data from Germany and exploits geographic variation in the exposure to medieval plague shocks. The findings document that areas with greater exposure to plague outbreaks exhibited an earlier onset of the demographic transition. The results are consistent with the predictions of the unified growth literature and provide novel insights into the largely unexplored empirical determinants of the timing of the transition from stagnation to growth. 

Working Paper

Transaction Cost (Reductions) in Economic Interactions (with Thomas Zörner, New Version: November 2023)
Earlier version available as Vaccination Spillovers in Economic Interactions. WU Vienna University of Economics and Business. Department of Economics Working Paper Series No. 347 

Abstract

Every human contact carries the risk of becoming infected with an infectious disease. These infection risks constitute transaction costs to economic activity. Individual behavior, such as hygiene standards or vaccinations, can reduce these transaction costs. However, the behavior is private information, resulting in asymmetric information across interacting individuals. In this paper, we quantify these transaction costs and their reduction through vaccinations for close contact services in a quasi-experimental setting. For the quantification, we exploit the substitutability of testing and vaccinations for infection risk reduction. We quantify the transaction costs by eliciting individuals’ willingness to pay (WTP) for testing of the service provider and randomize the vaccination status of the service provider. We quantify the reduction of transaction costs through vaccinations by comparing the WTP for testing across the vaccination status of the service provider. We find that vaccinations reduce the specific transaction costs by 69% compared to the full infection risk reduction via testing. Our findings suggest that asymmetric information about the vaccination status increases transaction costs by approximately 50% for vaccinated individuals.

Work in Progress

Childlessness and Inter-Temporal Fertility Choice

Abstract

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic structural model of fertility with endogenous marriage formation, linking the timing of fertility to its intensive (number of children) and extensive (having children) margin. The model features rational, forward-looking agents who make decisions on marriage and fertility, and are exposed to declining fecundity rates over time. In every period, agents face a trade-off between work and child-rearing, and across time there is a trade-off between having children early or late in life. The model parameters are identified using four distinct facts of the 2008 and 2012 German Microcensus: (i) fertility until age 30 decreases with education for married and single women, (ii) fertility after age 30 increases with education for married and single women, (iii) childlessness increases with women’s education, (iv) marriage rates decrease with education for women and increase with education for men. I obtain three main insights. First, postponement of childbirth combined with the natural decline of fecundity over time can explain up to 15% of childlessness, depending on education. Second, by estimating the model separately for East and West Germany, I find that institutions and economic conditions matter: the two major factors for childlessness in West Germany are postponement of childbirth and high opportunity costs of children due to lack of public childcare. By contrast, in East Germany, social sterility plays a larger role. Finally, using the estimated model parameters for counterfactual analysis, I evaluate consequences of reoccurring labor market interruptions and policies aimed at reconciling work and family life.