Research

Publications

Marriage and divorce: the role of unemployment insurance (with Bastian Schulz)
Journal of Population Economics, 36(4), 2277-2308, 2023. Online Appendix
see also: DerStandard Ökonomieblog, Sepember 12, 2023. 

Abstract

This paper examines how changes in household-level risk sharing affect the marriage market. We use as our laboratory a German unemployment insurance (UI) reform that tightened means-testing based on the partner’s income. The reduced generosity of UI increased the demand for household-level risk sharing, which lowered the attractiveness of individuals exposed to unemployment risk. Because unemployment risk correlates with non-German nationality, our main finding is that the UI reform led to a decrease in intermarriage. The 2004 expansion of the European Union had a comparable effect on intermarriage for the affected nationalities. Both reforms increased marital stability, which is consistent with better selection by couples. 

Quantifying Domestic Violence in Times of Crisis: An Internet Search Activity-Based Measure for the COVID-19 Pandemic (with Dan Anderberg and Helmut Rainer)
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 185(2), 498-818, 2022.
Earlier version available as CESifo Working Paper No. 8593, September 2020
See also: Significance, 19(4), 28-31, 2022., ifo Schnelldienst, 2022, 75, Nr. 01, 32-34.,"DerStandard Ökonomieblog, December 14, 2021., VoxEU, November 20, 2021.

Abstract

In contrast to widespread concerns that COVID-19 lockdowns have substantially increased the incidence of domestic violence, research based on police-recorded crimes or calls-for-service has typically found small and often even negligible effects. One explanation for this discrepancy is that lockdowns have left victims of domestic violence trapped in-home with their perpetrators, limiting their ability to safely report incidents to the police. To overcome this measurement problem, we propose a model-based algorithm for measuring temporal variation in domestic violence incidence using internet search activity and make precise the conditions under which this measure yields less biased estimates of domestic violence problem during periods of crisis than commonly-used police-recorded crime measures. Analyzing the COVID-19 lockdown in Greater London, we and a 40 percent increase in our internet search-based domestic violence index at the peak occurring 3-6 weeks into the lockdown, 7-8 times larger than the increase in police-recorded crimes and much closer to the increase in helpline calls reported by victim support charities. Applying the same methodology to Los Angeles, we nd strikingly similar results. We conclude that evidence based solely on police-recorded domestic violence incidents cannot reliably inform us about the scale of the domestic violence problem during crises like COVID-19.

Disease and Demographic Development: The Legacy of the Plague (with Uwe Sunde)
Journal of Economic Growth, 26(1), 1-30, 2021. 

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the hypothesis that population shocks such as the repeated outbreaks of the plague affected the timing of the demographic transition. The empirical analysis uses disaggregate data from Germany and exploits geographic variation in the exposure to medieval plague shocks. The findings document that areas with greater exposure to plague outbreaks exhibited an earlier onset of the demographic transition. The results are consistent with the predictions of the unified growth literature and provide novel insights into the largely unexplored empirical determinants of the timing of the transition from stagnation to growth. 

Working Paper

Vaccinations and the Costs of Human Interaction (with Thomas Zörner)
Earlier version available as Vaccination Spillovers in Economic Interactions. WU Vienna University of Economics and Business. Department of Economics Working Paper Series No. 347 

Abstract

Every human contact carries the risk of becoming infected with an infectious disease. These infection risks constitute barriers to human interaction and depend on the perceived riskiness of the situation. We identify these perceived costs to human interaction and their reduction through vaccinations for a specific disease in a survey experiment. In a novel approach, we exploit the substitutability of testing and vaccination of the service provider in a close contact service interaction. We elicit the valuation for infection risk reduction via testing of the service provider and randomize the vaccination status of the service provider. We find that vaccinations substantially reduce the disease-specific interaction cost, thus fostering human interactions.

Work in Progress

Childlessness and Inter-Temporal Fertility Choice 

Abstract

This paper investigates how starting fertility late in combination with declining fecundity by age contributes to childlessness. I develop and estimate a structural model of fertility with endogenous marriage formation, linking the timing of fertility to its intensive (number of children) and extensive (having children) margin. The model features rational, forward-looking agents who make decisions on marriage and fertility, and are exposed to declining fecundity rates over time. In every period, agents face a trade-off between work and child-rearing, and across time there is a trade-off between having children early or late in life. The model parameters are identified using empirical facts on childlessness, the timing of children and marriage rates by education in Germany. I obtain two main insights. First, only 15% of childlessness in Germany is involuntary. Second, postponement of childbirth combined with the natural decline of fecundity over time can explain 6% of childlessness. In counterfactual analysis, I evaluate the impact of universal coverage of social freezing and policies aimed at reconciling work and family life.