Fondecyt 11110502

Evaluating the contribution to power system adequacy of intermittent generation

Abstract

The threat of anthropogenic global warming and the pressing need for new energy sources has caused a great deal of concern for integration of non-conventional renewable energy (NCRE) into our existing electric systems. In Chile, recent changes to the regulatory framework seek to ensure that the characteristics of NCRE technologies are properly accounted for so that they can be incorporated effectively into the electricity market.

Because of their different operational characteristics, NCRE generators can become a substantial challenge to incorporate in electricity grids long dominated by conventional thermal and hydro technologies. While conventional generation capacity can be considered to be generally available when the system operator requires it, some of the NCRE technologies such as wind or solar power (sometimes referred to as intermittent or variable generation) are not continuously available but their output depends on meteorological factors. Because of the accelerating penetration and increasing impacts of NCRE, there is a growing need for understanding their contribution to the reliability of a power system under different conditions, and for developing and evaluating methods for measuring such contribution.

This research will study the contribution of intermittent generators to power system adequacy, that is, the capacity of the system supply (generation) to meet its demand (load), taking into account unexpected outages of generators or transmission infrastructure and possible constraints on the primary energy resources. The specific contribution of a generator to power system adequacy is usually expressed in terms of its capacity value or firm capacity. In this context, this project aims to investigate and evaluate under different conditions and assumptions a broad spectrum of methods for estimating the capacity value of intermittent generators.

This work will initiate by an in-depth critical review of the methods currently used for estimating the reliability contribution of intermittent generators, and then will engage in repeated looping through a three-stage cycle: theoretical work; model design and development; and computational experiments. At the end of the project, it is expected to count with a sound and robust suite of models and accompanying modeling methods for study and analysis of the problem.

The expected outcomes of this research are: 1) Advancing the comprehension of the actual contribution of NCRE sources to electric power systems from an adequacy perspective, with special focus on the possible impacts of NCRE on the Chilean interconnected systems; 2) Determine advantages and disadvantages of different capacity value estimation techniques from a conceptual and implementation point of view; 3) Create a market model and associated database for studying integration of NCRE to the Chilean interconnected systems; 4) Describe how system operational aspects such as hydrology, maintenance, and transmission constraints may affect the adequacy contribution of NCRE; and 5) Investigate the impacts of high renewable penetration levels on system adequacy. It is expected that the open source availability of tools and methods generated during the project execution will have significant impact on stimulating and encouraging further research and education in this area.

Journal papers

Esteban Gil, Ignacio Aravena, “Evaluating the capacity value of wind power considering transmission and operational constraints”, Energy Conversion and Management, vol. 78, pp. 948-955, Feb. 2014.

DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2013.06.063.

Link PDF

Claudio Castillo, Esteban Gil, “Assessing power system adequacy for different penetrations of wind and solar capacity in a thermal system”, Ingenerare, vol. 27, pp. 15-27, Dec. 2013.

Link PDF

Conference papers

Rodrigo Wetzel, Esteban Gil, “Monte Carlo-based method to estimate the capacity value of wind power considering operational aspects”, 13^th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS 2014), Durham, UK, Jul. 7-10, 2014. DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS.2014.6960660.

Link PDF

Esteban Gil, Ignacio Aravena, “Evaluating the contribution of intermittent generation to power system adequacy at different demand levels”, 2013 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting (IEEE-PES-GM 2013), Vancouver, Canada, Jul. 21-25, 2013. DOI: 10.1109/PESMG.2013.6672777.

Link PDF

Claudio Castillo, Esteban Gil, “Assessing power system adequacy for different penetrations of wind and solar capacity in a thermal system”, 10^th Latin-American Congress on Electric Power Generation, Transmission and Distribution (CLAGTEE 2013), Viña del Mar, Chile, Oct. 6-9, 2013.

Link PDF

Javier Toro, Esteban Gil, “Impacto del error de predicción de viento en el predespacho de un sistema eminentemente térmico con alta penetración eólica”, Ingelectra 2013, Antofagasta, Chile, Nov. 14-15, 2013.

Link PDF

Esteban Gil, Ignacio Aravena, “A LOLP-based method to evaluate the contribution of wind generation to power system adequacy”, 4^th International Renewable Energy Congress (IREC 2012), Sousse, Tunisia, Dec. 19-22, 2012.

Link PDF

Esteban Gil, “Evaluating the Impact of Wind Power Uncertainty on Power System Adequacy”, 12^th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS 2012), Istanbul, Turkey, Jun. 10-14, 2012.

Link PDF

NOTE: After the Fondecyt project was finished, we independently kept working and produced more methods and results leading to additional papers.