Inflation-default trade-off without a nominal anchor: The case of Greece (with Yasin Kürşat Önder) Review of Economic Dynamics, in press, May 2020 [pdf]
" We find that Greek default in 2012 would be avoided if drachma was announced as a national currency. However, the economic costs of leaving the eurozone would have reduced welfare despite default would have been avoided."
The role of risk aversion in a sovereign default model of polarization and political Instability (with Yasin Kürşat Önder) Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 123-132, January 2020
[pdf] [Online Appendix]
"We find that polarization leads to elevated default risk in the Cuadra and Sapriza (2008) environment only when preferences feature decreasing concavity in consumption."
External Shocks, Banks and Optimal Monetary Policy: A Recipe for Emerging Market Central Banks (with Yasin Mimir) International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(2), pages 235-299, June 2019.
[pdf] [Online Appendix] [VoxEU posting] [pdf - BIS Working Paper Series (No 528)]
"When Ramsey equilibrium is set as a benchmark, optimal monetary policy in a small open economy with financial frictions calls for a negative response to credit spreads and a positive response to the real exchange rate. "
The Welfare Consequences of Gradual Disinflation in Emerging Economies - Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2018, 50(4), 705–755) [pdf ]
"This study uses a heterogeneous agents model with uninsurable idiosyncratic risk to show that, in a version calibrated to the Turkish data, a gradual decline of 12% in the quarterly rate of inflation leads to an aggregate welfare gain of 0.40% in consumption equivalent terms."
Required Reserves as a Credit Policy Tool (with Temel Taşkın and Yasin Mimir) B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (Volume 13, Issue 1, ISSN (Online) 1935-1690, ISSN (Print) 2194-6116) [pdf]
Unemployment and Vacancies in Turkey: The Beveridge Curve and Matching Function (with Birol Kanık, and Temel Taşkın) – Central Bank Review (Vol. 14, Issue 3, September 2014 ISSN (Print) 1303-0701 (Online) 1305-8800) [pdf]
End-Point Bias in Trend-Cycle Decompositions: An Application to the Real Exchange Rates of Turkey (with Fatih Ekinci and Gazi Kabaş) Central Bank Review (Vol. 13, September 2013 ISSN (Print) 1303-0701 (Online) 1305-8800 [pdf]
Aiming better: Government support for households and firms during the energy crisis (with Yannick Hemmerlé, Filippo Maria D’Arcangelo, Tobias Kruse, David Haugh, Álvaro Pina, Mauro Pisu, Cassandra Castle and Giuliana Sarcina) OECD Economic Policy Papers (https://doi.org/10.1787/839e3ae1-en) NEW
OECD Economic Survey of Costa Rica 2020 (with Alberto González Pandiella under the supervision of Patrick Lenain) OECD Economic Surveys (https://doi.org/10.1787/2e0fea6c-en)
The Beveridge Curve and Matching Function: Case of Turkey (with Birol Kanik, and Temel Taşkın) (in Turkish) CBT Research Notes in Economics (No. 12/24, September 07, 2012) [pdf]
Regional and Sectoral Export Diversification: The Case of Turkey (with Altan Aldan, M.Faruk Aydın, Olcay Yücel Çulha, and Temel Taşkın) (in Turkish) CBT Research Notes in Economics (No. 12/18, July 25, 2012) [pdf]
Fear (no more) of Floating: Asset Purchases and Exchange Rate Dynamics (with Yasin Mimir, under review) [pdf including online appendix]
"We provide a theory on currency dynamics, capital flows and conditions for central bank asset purchases to leave room for manoeuvre on conventional monetary policy. "
Default or depreciate (with Yasin Kürşat Önder, under review) [pdf including online appendix]
"We show that currency depreciations can avert emerging economy sovereign debt crises in episodes of macroeconomic stress."
Transmission of Fiscal Stimulus in Small Open Economies: The Role of Finance Channel (with Alperen Evrin and Yasin Mimir)
Strategic Debt Accumulation in a Sovereign Default Model of Political Uncertainty (with Yasin Kürşat Önder) [pdf]
External Shocks, Banks, and Monetary Policy in an Open Economy: Loss Function Approach (with Yasin Mimir)
[pdf - Central Bank of Turkey Working Paper Series 15/25]
"In a New Keynesian small open economy model with financial frictions, short term interest rates that lean against the wind by responding to credit growth are found to be the best policy rule when ad-hoc loss functions are considered."
Distributional and Welfare Consequences of Disinflation in Emerging Economies
[pdf - Central Bank of Turkey Working Paper Series 13/34]
"Disinflation is found to lower aggregate welfare when the reduction in the distortionary impediments of inflation on the poor falls short of the decline in their redistributive transfers income that is mainly financed by the inflation tax."