PRIN 2022: INFLUENCES

The project on "INFLation: caUsEs, coNsequenCES, and policy implications" (acronym: INFLUENCES, lead: Efrem Castelnuovo; co-lead: Anna Paola Florio) aims to identify the drivers of inflation and real activity and understand how macroeconomic policies such as monetary and fiscal interventions affect them. This project, which received financial support from the Italian Ministry of Education, Universities, and Research (PRIN 2022, grant 2022A9PAT3), features the collaboration of the University of Padova and the Politecnico di Milano (co-lead: Anna Florio). 

INFLUENCES has supported the following scientific endeavors of researchers based at the University of Padova:

• Andreasen, M., G. Caggiano, E. Castelnuovo, and G. Pellegrino 2024, Does Risk Matter More in Recessions than in Expansions? Implications for Monetary Policy, Journal of Monetary Economics, 143, 103533.

• Castelnuovo, E., and L. Mori, 2025, Uncertainty, Skewness, and the Business Cycle Through the MIDAS Lens, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 40: 89-107. 

• Boeck, M., and L. Mori, 2025, Has Globalization Changed the International Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy, Journal of International Economics, 157, 104139.  

• Piccolo, J., Russo, E. Granziera, E. Castelnuovo, 2025, Households' Macroeconomic Beliefs: The Role of Education, Marco Fanno WP. 

• Piccolo, J., Y. Gorodnichenko, 2025, Homeownership and Attention to Inflation: Evidence from Information Treatments, Marco Fanno WP. 

• Castelnuovo, E., G. Pellegrino, and L. Ladegård Særkjær, 2025, The Inflation Uncertainty Amplifier, submitted. Appendix here.  SUERF piece here. 

• Castelnuovo, E., G. Pellegrino, and L. Ladegård Særkjær, 2025, Monetary Policy Shocks and Narrative Restrictions: Rules Matter, submitted. SUERF piece here. 

• Castelnuovo, E., G. Pellegrino, G. Primativo, and G. Ranzato, 2025, Delayed Overshooting Puzzle: Does Systematic Monetary Policy Matter?, submitted. 

• Castelnuovo, E., A. Margaris, and G. Martorana, 2025, Dancing with the R-star: Information Shocks in the "New Normal", submitted. 

• Krogh, M.S., and G. Pellegrino, 2024, Real Activity and Uncertainty Shocks: The Long and the Short of It, Marco Fanno Working Paper No. 310. Piece on SUERF here. 

• Li, L., N. Bailey, and G. Caggiano, 2024, Measuring Cross-Country Spillovers in Growth-at-Risk, in progress. 

Researchers based at the Politecnico di Milano have also substantially contributed to the INFLUENCES project:

• Florio, A., D. Siena and R. Zago, 2025, Global Value Chains and the Phillips Curve: a Challenge for Monetary Policy, European Economic Review, 174, 104139.

• Ascari, G., A. Florio, and A. Gobbi, 2024, Uncovering the Effects of Government Spending through Tax Foresight, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 19698.  

• Ascari, G., A. Florio, A. Gobbi and L. Melosi, 2025, Which Fiscal Spending Category Is the Most Inflationary?, in progress.

The data used to conduct the empirical exercises documented in these papers are available upon request.