The project on "INFLation: caUsEs, coNsequenCES, and policy implications" (acronym: INFLUENCES, lead: Efrem Castelnuovo; co-lead: Anna Paola Florio) aims to identify the drivers of inflation and real activity and understand how macroeconomic policies such as monetary and fiscal interventions affect them. This project, which received financial support from the Italian Ministry of Education, Universities, and Research (PRIN 2022, grant 2022A9PAT3), features the collaboration of the University of Padova and the Politecnico di Milano (co-lead: Anna Florio).
The PRIN 2022 project has financed the following scientific endeavors of researchers based at the University of Padova:
Andreasen, M., G. Caggiano, E. Castelnuovo, and G. Pellegrino 2024, Does Risk Matter More in Recessions than in Expansions? Implications for Monetary Policy, Journal of Monetary Economics, 143, 103533.
Castelnuovo, E., and L. Mori, 2025, Uncertainty, Skewness, and the Business Cycle Through the MIDAS Lens, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 40: 89-107.
Mori, L, 2025, Fiscal Shocks and the Surge of Inflation, Marco Fanno WP.
Piccolo, J., Russo, E. Granziera, E. Castelnuovo, 2025, Households' Macroeconomic Beliefs: The Role of Education, Marco Fanno WP.
Piccolo, J., Y. Gorodnichenko, 2025, Homeownership and Attention to Inflation: Evidence from Information Treatments, Marco Fanno WP.
Castelnuovo, E., G. Pellegrino, and L. Ladegård Særkjær, 2024, Uncertainty and the Business Cycle When Inflation is High, work in progress.
Castelnuovo, E., A. Margaris, and G. Martorana, 2024, Dancing with the R-star: Information Shocks and the Investment Channel, in progress.
Margaris, A., 2024, Monetary policy and house price heterogeneity: Evidence from the U.K., mimeo.
Boeck, M., and L. Mori, 2024, Has Globalization Changed the International Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy, mimeo.
Castelnuovo, E., L. Mori, and G. Peersman, 2024, Commodity Prices and Global Cycles: Monetary Policy Matters, work in progress.
Castelnuovo, E., G. Pellegrino, and G. Ranzato, 2024, Delayed Overshooting Puzzle: Does Systematic Monetary Policy Matter?, mimeo. Piece on SUERF here.
Krogh, M.S., and G. Pellegrino, 2024, Real Activity and Uncertainty Shocks: The Long and the Short of It, Marco Fanno Working Paper No. 310.
Researchers based at the Politecnico di Milano have also substantially contributed to the PRIN 2022 project:
Ascari, G., A. Florio, and A. Gobbi, 2024, Uncovering the Effects of Government Spending through Tax Foresight, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 19698.
Ascari, G., A. Florio, A. Gobbi and L. Melosi, 2025, Which Fiscal Spending Category Is the Most Inflationary?, in progress.
Florio, A., D. Siena and R. Zago, 2025, Global Value Chains and the Phillips Curve: a Challenge for Monetary Policy, European Economic Review, forthcoming.