Junjie Guo
Economist
Center for Research on the Wisconsin Economy (CROWE)
University of Wisconsin - Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Email: jguo27[at]wisc.edu
Education: Ph.D. in Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Research Fields: Labor; Macro
Peer-Reviewed Articles
[3] Sequential Job Posting and Equilibrium Wage Dispersion with Bunching
Labour Economics, April 2024
[2] Students' Heterogeneous Preferences and the Uneven Spatial Distribution of Colleges, with Chao Fu, Adam Smith and Alan Sorensen
Journal of Monetary Economics, July 2022
[1] The Persistent Impact of Multiple Offers
Labour Economics, January 2022
Working Papers
[7] The Dynamics of the Frictional Wage Distribution, June 2024
We generate a frictional wage distribution in the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides framework by allowing homogeneous workers to receive multiple offers from homogeneous firms, consistent with recent evidence suggesting that multiple offers are prevalent in the labor market. The model implies that aggregate productivity (the minimum wage) has a larger (smaller) impact on the upper than the lower end of the frictional wage distribution, and the cyclical behavior of the wage offer distribution amplifies frictional wage dispersion but limits the contribution of wage rigidity to fluctuations of unemployment and vacancies over the business cycle. We provide some evidence consistent with the model.
[6] The Response of Wages to Rejected Offers, [slides] updated March 2024
Using the Survey of Consumer Expectations, which asks employed workers to report their salaries and job offers every four months, we find that rejecting an outside offer does not have a significant effect on a worker's salary with the current employer, the expected probability that the current employer will match a job offer with a higher salary from another firm, and the employed worker's reservation salary for another job. The results suggest that wage renegotiation in response to changes in an employed worker's outside option does not play a significant role for individual wages.
[5] Job Search with Recall and Reneging, updated November 2023
In a model where jobs cannot start immediately after a firm meets a worker, we show that some firms make exploding offers requiring an immediate decision from workers, while other firms allow workers to recall their offers within a period of time. After accepting an offer, a worker may renege on it for another offer received later. In response, exploding offers are more lucrative than offers with recall. Policies that discourage reneging by workers could induce firms to make more exploding offers with lower wages, contradicting other policies for exploding offers and reducing the value of job search for workers.
[4] Estimation of the Wage Offer Distribution Using Both Accepted and Rejected Offers, updated April 2024
This paper estimates the wage offer distribution using workers who received multiple offers in a short period of time, including both accepted and rejected offers. We show that, after accounting for worker heterogeneity and measurement error, each wage offer is a random draw from the same distribution, and a normal distribution with a standard deviation of 0.137 is consistent with data. The dispersion is smaller than most estimates in the literature, increasing in the unemployment rate for workers without a bachelor's degree, but not significantly related to a worker's age or employment status.
[3] Estimating Aggregate Human Capital Externalities, with Nicolas Roys and Ananth Seshadri. January 2018
This paper estimates human capital externalities formulated in Lucas (1988). We incorporate externalities into an overlapping generations model of human capital accumulation with Compulsory Schooling Laws (CSL). The model implies that human capital externalities can be estimated from the effect of CSL affecting the schooling decision of one generation on the wage of other generations. Using an instrumental variable strategy deduced from the model, we find that one more year of average schooling at the U.S. state level raises individual wage by about 6-8%. Taking this reduced form estimate into account, we estimate that the elasticity of a typical firm's productivity with respect to the average human capital of an economy is 0.121.
[2] Human Capital Externalities and the Geographic Variation in Returns to Experience, available upon request
This paper provides evidence that the average human capital of a labor market has a positive effect on individual human capital accumulation and wage growth over the life cycle. Returns to experience in a labor market are found to be increasing in the share of workers with a bachelor’s degree or more (college share) in the market. An instrumental variable and panel data with individual fixed effects are used to address the potential endogeneity of college share and the sorting of workers across labor markets respectively. The effect of the college share of a labor market is shown to persist after workers leave the market, suggesting that a larger college share raises returns to experience through the accumulation of human capital valuable in all markets. The findings provide an explanation for the higher returns to experience in large cities and rich countries documented recently in the literature.
[1] Search Capital and Migration, available upon request
CROWE Publications
[28] The Economic Impact of the Wisconsin State Legislature's Plan to Cut Income Tax Rates, with Kim J. Ruhl and Ananth Seshadri. February 2024
[27] Business Dynamism in Wisconsin, with Kim J. Ruhl. October 2023
[26] The Economic Impact of JFC's Plan to Cut Income Tax Rates in Wisconsin, with Kim J. Ruhl and Ananth Seshadri. June 2023
[25] Forecasting the U.S. and Wisconsin Economies in 2023 and 2024, June 2023
[24] Business Formations in Wisconsin. Monthly since March 2023
[23] Five Options to Lower the Income Tax Rates in Wisconsin, with Kim J. Ruhl and Ananth Seshadri. May 2023
[22] The Economic Impact of Lowering Income Tax Rates in Wisconsin, with Kim J. Ruhl and Ananth Seshadri. February 2023
[21] Wisconsin's Sales Tax Regressivity, with Kim J. Ruhl. November 2022
[20] Job Openings and Labor Market Tightness During the COVID-19 Pandemic, February 2022
[19] Forecasting the U.S. and Wisconsin Economies in 2022, with Noah Williams. January 2022
[18] The Evoluation and Impacts of the State Corporate Tax Structure: 2011-2020, with Noah Williams, Zhuoer Ren and Qi Yang. September 2021
[17] Middle Income Tax Reform Options for Wisconsin: Evaluating a Proposal by the Joint Committee on Finance, with Noah Williams. June 2021
[16] Middle Income Tax Reform Options for Wisconsin, with Noah Williams. June 2021
[15] The Impact of Increased Unemployment Benefits During the COVID-19 Pandemic, with Noah Williams, Arwa Alalwani, Zhi Jiang, Jiashun Pang, Stefan Smutny and Linhua Zeng. April 2021
[14] Forecasting the U.S. and Wisconsin Economies in 2021, with Noah Williams. January 2021
[13] The Economic Impact of the Wisconsin Supreme Court Ruling Invalidating the State's Safer at Home Order. July 2020
[12] The Impact of Statewide Stay-at-Home Orders: Estimating the Heterogeneous Effects Using GPS data from Mobile Devices. April 2020
[11] The Geographic Distribution of Workers Most At Risk When Ordered to Stay At Home. March 2020
[10] Covid-19, Industry Mix and the Growth of Initial UI Claims across States. March 2020
[9] The Revenue and Incentive Effects of AB 910 and Alternative Reforms in Wisconsin, with Noah Williams. Febuary 2020
[8] Forecasting the U.S. and Wisconsin Economies in 2020, with Noah Williams. January 2020
[7] Jobs, Skills and the Prison-to-Work Transition, with Ananth Seshadri and Christopher Taber. August 2019
[6] Potential Medicaid Expansion in Wisconsin: New Estimates of Costs and Benefits for Health Care Providers and the Privately Insured, with Noah Williams. June 2019
[5] Marginal Tax Rates and Individual Income Tax Reforms in Wisconsin, with Noah Williams. May 2019
[4] Forecasting the US and Wisconsin Economies in 2019, with Noah Williams. January 2019
[3] The Impact of Income Tax Reductions in Wisconsin, with Noah Williams. December 2018
[2] Business Formation in Wisconsin During and After the Great Recession. Feburary 2018
[1] Forecasting the US and Wisconsin Economies in 2018, with Noah Williams. January 2018
Other Publications
[3] Understanding Racial Disparities in Financial Preparedness for Retirement, with Ananth Seshadri. MRDRC Working paper. September 2022
[2] Estimating the Impact of Missing Totalization Agreements, with Ananth Seshadri. MRDRC Working Paper. December 2021
[1] Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of Each Totalization Agreement, with Ananth Seshadri. MRDRC Working Paper. September 2020