Junjie Guo

Economist

Center for Research on the Wisconsin Economy (CROWE)

Department of Economics

University of Wisconsin - Madison

1180 Observatory Drive

Madison, WI 53706

Email: jguo27[at]wisc.edu


Education: Ph.D. in Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Research Fields: Labor; Macro


Peer-Reviewed Articles

[2] Students' Heterogeneous Preferences and the Uneven Spatial Distribution of Colleges, with Chao Fu, Adam Smith and Alan Sorensen
      Journal of Monetary Economics, July 2022

[1] The Persistent Impact of Multiple Offers
      Labour Economics, January 2022


Working Papers

[8] The Response of Wages to Rejected Offers, December 2023

Using the Survey of Consumer Expectations, which asks employed workers to report their salaries and job offers every four months, we find that rejecting an outside offer does not have a significant effect on a worker's salary with the current employer, the expected probability that the current employer will match a job offer with a higher salary from another firm, and the employed worker's reservation salary for another job. The results suggest that wage renegotiation in response to changes in an employed worker's outside option does not play a significant role for individual wages.

[7] Job Search with Recall and Reneging, November 2023

In a model where jobs cannot start immediately after a firm meets a worker, we show that some firms make exploding offers requiring an immediate decision from workers, while other firms allow workers to recall their offers within a period of time. After accepting an offer, a worker may renege on it for another offer received later. In response, exploding offers are more lucrative than offers with recall. Policies that discourage reneging by workers could induce firms to make more exploding offers with lower wages, contradicting other policies for exploding offers and reducing the value of job search for workers

[6] Estimation of the Wage Offer Distribution Using Both Accepted and Rejected Offers,  October 2023

This paper estimates the wage offer distribution using workers who received multiple offers in a short period of time, including both accepted and rejected offers. We find the normal distribution is consistent with our data on log wage offers, so is the Gumbel distribution, while the exponential distribution is rejected. The standard deviation is estimated to be around 0.14, smaller than most of the estimates in the literature. Moreover, we find the dispersion is increasing in the unemployment rate for workers without a bachelor's degree, but it is not significantly related to a worker's age or employment status

[5] Labor Market Frictions and the Wage Distribution of Teens Working in the Summer, updated November 2023

Previously titled "The Dynamics of Multiple Offers and the Frictional Wage Distribution"; Awarded the Top Conference Paper presented at the 2022 Australasia Meeting of the Econometric Society

Using teens working in the summer, we provide evidence suggesting that on-the-job search is not the only source of frictional wage dispersion, and the upper end of the frictional wage distribution is more (less) responsive to changes in aggregate productivity (the minimum wage) than the lower end. We account for the findings by allowing unemployed workers in a DMP model to receive multiple offers simultaneously. The model implies an endogenous evolution of the wage offer distribution over the business cycle, which amplifies frictional wage dispersion and limits the impact of wage rigidity on the cyclical behavior of unemployment and vacancies

[4] Sequential Job Posting and Equilibrium Wage Dispersion with Bunching, updated May 2023

In a model where new jobs cannot start until some time in the future, we show that firms post vacancies in advance when the match surplus is high, and they post more vacancies but lower wages as the job starting time gets closer. An equilibrium wage distribution with both a continuous component and a mass point exists even with identical and rational agents on both sides of the market. Wage dispersion is generated by the inter-temporal competition between vacancies posted at different times, and a mass point emerges due to the lack of wage competition among vacancies posted at the same time. We provide evidence consistent with the model using wage offers received by graduating students. 

[3] Estimating Aggregate Human Capital Externalities, with Nicolas Roys and Ananth Seshadri. January 2018

This paper estimates human capital externalities formulated in Lucas (1988). We incorporate externalities into an overlapping generations model of human capital accumulation with Compulsory Schooling Laws (CSL). The model implies that human capital externalities can be estimated from the effect of CSL affecting the schooling decision of one generation on the wage of other generations. Using an instrumental variable strategy deduced from the model, we find that one more year of average schooling at the U.S. state level raises individual wage by about 6-8%. Taking this reduced form estimate into account, we estimate that the elasticity of a typical firm's productivity with respect to the average human capital of an economy is 0.121.

[2] Human Capital Externalities and the Geographic Variation in Returns to Experience, available upon request

This paper provides evidence that the average human capital of a labor market has a positive effect on individual human capital accumulation and wage growth over the life cycle. Returns to experience in a labor market are found to be increasing in the share of workers with a bachelor’s degree or more (college share) in the market. An instrumental variable and panel data with individual fixed effects are used to address the potential endogeneity of college share and the sorting of workers across labor markets respectively. The effect of the college share of a labor market is shown to persist after workers leave the market, suggesting that a larger college share raises returns to experience through the accumulation of human capital valuable in all markets. The findings provide an explanation for the higher returns to experience in large cities and rich countries documented recently in the literature.

[1] Search Capital and Migration, available upon request


CROWE Publications

[27] Business Dynamism in Wisconsin, with Kim J. Ruhl. October 2023

[26] The Economic Impact of JFC's Plan to Cut Income Tax Rates in Wisconsin, with Kim J. Ruhl and Ananth Seshadri. June 2023

[25] Forecasting the U.S. and Wisconsin Economies in 2023 and 2024, June 2023

[24] Business Formations in Wisconsin. Monthly since March 2023

[23] Five Options to Lower the Income Tax Rates in Wisconsin, with Kim J. Ruhl and Ananth Seshadri. May 2023

[22] The Economic Impact of Lowering Income Tax Rates in Wisconsin, with Kim J. Ruhl and Ananth Seshadri. February 2023

[21] Wisconsin's Sales Tax Regressivity, with Kim J. Ruhl. November 2022

[20] Job Openings and Labor Market Tightness During the COVID-19 Pandemic, February 2022

[19] Forecasting the U.S. and Wisconsin Economies in 2022, with Noah Williams. January 2022

[18] The Evoluation and Impacts of the State Corporate Tax Structure: 2011-2020, with Noah Williams, Zhuoer Ren and Qi Yang. September 2021

[17] Middle Income Tax Reform Options for Wisconsin: Evaluating a Proposal by the Joint Committee on Finance, with Noah Williams. June 2021

[16] Middle Income Tax Reform Options for Wisconsin, with Noah Williams. June 2021

[15] The Impact of Increased Unemployment Benefits During the COVID-19 Pandemic, with Noah Williams, Arwa Alalwani, Zhi Jiang, Jiashun Pang, Stefan Smutny and Linhua Zeng. April 2021

[14] Forecasting the U.S. and Wisconsin Economies in 2021, with Noah Williams. January 2021

[13] The Economic Impact of the Wisconsin Supreme Court Ruling Invalidating the State's Safer at Home Order. July 2020

[12] The Impact of Statewide Stay-at-Home Orders: Estimating the Heterogeneous Effects Using GPS data from Mobile Devices. April 2020

[11] The Geographic Distribution of Workers Most At Risk When Ordered to Stay At Home. March 2020

[10] Covid-19, Industry Mix and the Growth of Initial UI Claims across States. March 2020

[9] The Revenue and Incentive Effects of AB 910 and Alternative Reforms in Wisconsin, with Noah Williams. Febuary 2020

[8] Forecasting the U.S. and Wisconsin Economies in 2020, with Noah Williams. January 2020

[7] Jobs, Skills and the Prison-to-Work Transition, with Ananth Seshadri and Christopher Taber. August 2019

[6] Potential Medicaid Expansion in Wisconsin: New Estimates of Costs and Benefits for Health Care Providers and the Privately Insured, with Noah Williams. June 2019

[5] Marginal Tax Rates and Individual Income Tax Reforms in Wisconsin, with Noah Williams. May 2019

[4] Forecasting the US and Wisconsin Economies in 2019, with Noah Williams. January 2019

[3] The Impact of Income Tax Reductions in Wisconsin, with Noah Williams. December 2018

[2] Business Formation in Wisconsin During and After the Great Recession. Feburary 2018

[1] Forecasting the US and Wisconsin Economies in 2018, with Noah Williams. January 2018


Other Publications

[2] Estimating the Impact of Missing Totalization Agreements, with Ananth Seshadri. MRDRC Working Paper. December 2021

[1] Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of Each Totalization Agreement, with Ananth Seshadri. MRDRC Working Paper. September 2020