December 18, 2015 8:45 AM Relaxnews
Thanks to tens of millions of Takata airbags, VW's dishonest diesels and numerous issues with Fiat Chrysler's range, much has been written in the mainstream media about vehicle recalls, particularly in the US, over the past 12 months. And while the scandal surrounding some of the problems will eventually be forgotten, the coverage might help drivers take the subject of recalls more seriously.
The problem is many of these cars will never receive the correction required and are on the road with a potentially life-threatening defect. The NHTSA — the body in charge of coordinating vehicle recalls and taking action when carmakers have been resting on their laurels — says that on average, 70% of cars covered in a recall get the needed fix.
Recent Autotrader research put that figure closer to 60%. However, Yong-Kyun Bae, Ph.D, the Associate Professor, Department of Global Studies at Pusan National University, puts the figure at just 53.4%.
In his most recent study currently under review, "Vehicle Recalls and Corrective Behavior: Information Transmission Mechanisms," Bae finds that consumers respond very differently to a vehicle recall. "The severity of the defect has no statistically significant impact on whether people get their cars fixed or not," he said, "but the language of the recall notification letter does."
What makes Bae's work so crucial is that he is the same researcher who, alongside Hugo Benitez-Silva, published the first empirical studies demonstrating that removing defects from cars reduces accident damage on the roads; in other words, recalled cars are safer for everyone.
Unfortunately, in his latest paper, which analyzed 289 recalls from 2008 and 2012 and the language of the letters sent to owners, finds that when brand-new vehicles and niche recalls are stripped from the equation, there's no guarantee of getting more than 50% of drivers to get their cars fixed. Unless, of course, something is done to change the way that recalls are communicated in the first place. "The content of the letters plays an important role in increasing correction rates to certain owners," said Bae.
If words such as "death" are used in a letter then the recall correction rate can be 10% higher. What's more, the longer the time the car would need to spend at a garage, the more likely a driver is to respond to the recall.
However, for the moment at least, there is no standardized language for recall letters or for communicating seriousness. "This is clearly problematic, especially because it leaves the decision for transmitting a sense of urgency regarding vehicular problems in the hands of manufacturers," said Bae.
The paper also shows that the older the car, the less likely it is to get the fix it needs. And, considering that some of the 34 million cars affected by the current Takata airbag recall were built a decade ago, the chances are that many of these older cars will never see the inside of a repair shop.
Coverage of recalls in the mainstream press is clearly helping to bring the issue to the attention of more drivers, but Bae believes that recall letters need to be regulated and offer clearer information about risks and hazards in order to increase the percentage of cars that receive the necessary corrective measures.
[2] PNU Focus: http://pusan.ac.kr/uPNU_homepage/kr/sub/sub.asp?menu_no=1001070101
[국제학부] 배용균 교수, 자동차리콜 실증연구 해외언론 주목
최근 미국의 폭스바겐 자동차 리콜이 세계의 이목을 집중시킨 가운데, 국제학술지에 심사 중인 국제학부 배용균 교수의 ‘자동차 리콜과 시정행위: 정보전달 메커니즘’에 관한 논문이 야후, 프랑스 AFP 통신사 등 해외 주요 언론사에 뉴스를 제공하는 ‘릴렉스 뉴스’에 소개돼 관심을 끌고 있다.
배 교수는 최근 실증연구를 통해 많은 리콜 차량들이 결함이 시정되지 않은 채 생명을 위협하는 결함을 가지고 도로 위를 달리고 있으며, 자동차 결함이 가지고 있는 위험에 관련된 정보가 소비자들에게 제대로 전달되지 않고 있다고 전했다.
특히, 2008년부터 2012년에 미국에서 발생한 289개의 자동차 리콜과 차량소유자에게 보내진 리콜통지서의 내용을 분석한 이번 연구에서는 신형 자동차 모델들과 소규모 리콜을 제외하면 자동차 리콜교정율이 50%를 넘지 못한 것으로 조사됐다.
배 교수는 또한 “자동차 제조사들이 차량 소유자들에게 보내는 결함통지서에는 표준화된 언어가 사용되거나, 결함의 심각성을 알리는 제도적 장치가 없다”며 “이는 특별히 자동차의 결함과 관련된 위험도, 긴박함을 소비자에게 전달하는 결정을 제조사의 손에 맡기는 것이기 때문에 명확히 문제가 있다”고 밝혔다.
이어 리콜통지서가 더 규제될 필요가 있으며, 필요한 시정조치들을 받는 차량들의 비율을 높이기 위해 소비자들에게 위험과 결함의 심각성에 대한 보다 명확한 정보가 전달돼야 한다고 말했다. 배 교수의 이번 연구는 향후 자동차 안전 규제에 관한 각국의 규제강화 노력에 중요한 정책적 시사점을 제공할 전망이다.
앞서, 배 교수는 국제 공동연구를 통해 자동차들로부터 결함을 제거하면 도로에서 교통사고 피해가 감소한다는 즉, 리콜된 차량들은 결함제거 후 모두에게 더 안전해진다는 것을 보여주는 최초의 실증연구를 수행해 학계의 주목을 받았다.
배 교수는 미국 경제학계의 자동차 리콜 규제에 관련한 연구 분야에서 독보적인 위치를 차지하고 있으며, 미국 의회 회계 감사국(government accountability office)에서는 그의 연구를 인용해 관련 법령 개정을 추진 중인 것으로 알려져 있기도 하다.
[3] Forbes/ Washington: http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielfisher/2015/09/22/volkswagen-owners-emissions-recall/#7faa74016498
Sep 22, 2015 @ 07:16 AM Daniel Fisher, Forbes Staff
Volkswagen’s chief executive, Martin Winterkorn, says it’s his “first priority” to fix whatever coding lurks inside the computers in some 11 million diesel cars so they can’t cheat on emissions-testing systems any more.
That will mean a big recall, and as I suggested on Saturday, some VW drivers may not be so enthusiastic about taking their car down to the dealer to have the computer altered. Dr. Winterkorn’s “fix” is likely to reduce acceleration and fuel economy, two of the main reasons consumers buy four-cylinder turbodiesel engines.
Will they comply? Turns out that’s a hotly debated question in the auto industry and academia. While there are so-called “mandatory” recalls in the U.S., the mandatory part refers to auto manufacturers, not their customers.
Volkswagen Group CEO Martin Winterkorn: We’re on it. (ODD ANDERSEN/AFP/Getty Images)
The California Air Resources Board says it has no plans to prevent drivers from registering VWs with the emissions-altering software. An agency spokesman told me it will first ask VW to issue a recall on the affected vehicles and then check back to see how many owners have complied. If too many have ignored the recall letters, he said, “we can then work with the Department of Motor Vehicles to make sure the vehicles cannot be registered without proof of repair.” California is one of the few states, along with Connecticut, Rhode Island and New York, that require periodic emissions tests. Many other states require the tests only in specific urban areas and some, like Illinois, exempt diesel automobiles.
The overall rate of compliance with auto recalls is less than 70% and declines steadily as cars age, as well as with the perceived danger of the defect in the recall. A 2011 survey by the Government Accountability Office found that the compliance rate ranges from 25% to 90%.
Among safety recalls, wheel-related recalls have the highest compliance rates, while cruise controls were the lowest at 43%. And air bags were at 60%, a pattern that is holding true with the recall affecting some 30 million cars with potentially defective Takata air bag inflators. The rate is around 65%, although part of that is due to delays in supplies.
Since the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration stopped requiring automakers to code recalls hazardous or non-hazardous in 2001, car owners have been forced to parse the wording of notices to figure out whether it’s a worth driving down to the dealer to get their car fixed. Words like “could lead to a fire,” “could cause a crash resulting in injury or death” resulted in higher correction rates, according to a study of 2,784 recalls over a four-year period by Yong-Kyun Bae of Hood University and Hugo Benitez-Silva of SUNY-Stonybrook. In that working paper, Bae and Benitez-Silva found that the word “death” was only in 11% of the notices but those had an 11% higher compliance rate.
“It’s really up to the driver to fix it,” said Benitez-Silva. “Sometimes they put pressure on the driver in terms of voiding the warranty.”
The two researchers also have studied whether recalls have an impact on safety. They say yes, but with important caveats. Their research has found that the higher the compliance rates associated with a model, the lower the number of accidents in the three years following. In one 2011 article, they found that accidents were 7.8% to 16% lower in cars subject to a recall compared with other models, and the effect was stronger in models with higher rates of compliance.
The authors structured their analysis to try and isolate the effect of the recall but acknowledged they might also be picking up on the fact that drivers who respond to a recall notice might be more consciencious and attentive, or might drive the car more carefully after receiving notice it has a potentially dangerous defect. They also were quick to say this isn’t a prescription for even more recalls: Their conclusion is consumers should bring more cars into the shop, making recall expenses higher for manufacturers and spurring them to fix more problems during the design phase.
There’s a trade-off with recalls, of course, just as there is with warning labels. Consumers tend to tune out printed warnings – even though lawyers put near-religious faith in their ability to prevent accidents – and they clearly discriminate among recall notices based on the perceived danger and the age of the car. Manufacturers like the current system, Benitez-Silva told me, because they can count on the fact a significant number of drivers will never take their cars in for repairs at their expense.
There are also costs and risks associated with complying. NHTSA estimates automakers spend $100 per vehicle on recalls, or about $3 billion a year, according to this 2009 article by Kevin McDonald, vice president and chief compliance officer at VW Credit, but the actual number may exceed $12 billion after including non-safety related recalls involving emissions systems and warranty work. And consumers have to take time to drive to the dealer and wait for their cars to be fixed. They may burn 27 million additional gallons of gas going to the dealer, and at a 2004 fatality rate of 1.44 per 100 million vehicle-miles traveled, just complying with recalls could be expected to kill 4 people a year, McDonald noted. And some of those recalls are minor: GM once responded to NHTSA’s demands by recalling vans to “fix” the seat belt warning by doubling the mandated chime time to 8 seconds.
There are ways to force car owners to comply with recalls. Germany tracks compliance by VIN number and will refuse to register cars with unrepaired defects that can hurt someone other than the owner. It used that power more than 1,000 times in 2009, the GAO reported, although Japan, the U.K. and Canada, all fairly heavy on the regulations, don’t have such authority.
Insurers could also refuse to renew policies on cars that haven’t gotten the fix. It’s a simple enough matter to check the VIN number on Carfax – anybody can do it. And California lawmakers considered a measure in 2005 that would have required auto manufacturers to link the VIN numbers of recalled cars to their license plate numbers and notify both the owners and the state. The auto companies helped kill that one.
The “defect” in VW diesels, if confirmed, allows them to pass emissions tests while providing peppier performance and better gas mileage when the cars aren’t on a treadmill with a sensor up their tailpipe. That’s illegal, of course, and could lead to higher atmospheric NOx levels, which can exacerbate asthma and other lung conditions. But can every VW owner be dragged in to fix it? I doubt it.
[4] CarInsurance.com: http://www.carinsurance.com/Articles/car-owners-guide-to-recalls.aspx
Car owner's guide to recalls
December 7, 2016, By Satta Sarmah-Hightower
If you own a Ford, Fiat Chrysler, Honda, Toyota or GM, then there's a high probability your car was subject to a recall last year. Millions of cars were recalled in 2015 and these automakers were the top five on the list.
According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration(NHTSA), there were nearly 900 recalls last year that affected 51 million cars in the U.S. The recalls involved everything from faulty air bags to defective ignition and window switches, with the latter leading Toyota to recall 6.5 million cars. These recalls come after a record-breaking year in 2014, when over 62 million vehicles were recalled -- more than double the previous annual record set in 2004.
Experts say part of the reason recalls have increased is because car manufacturers have become more proactive. Variety, or the different factory-installed options and features available for each car model, and the amount of overtime workers on the assembly line perform also increase the likelihood of future recalls, says Rachna Shah, an associate professor of supply chain and operations at the University of Minnesota's Carlson School of Management who has done extensive research on the factors that lead to recalls.
"The reason there are more recalls now is because car companies voluntary recall way more than mandated recalls. They tend to recall before it becomes a very big deal, and many of the recalls involve smaller flaws. Companies have become a little more gun-shy, so they don't wait a long time to recall," Shah says.
But as we've seen, some of the recalls -- like the Volkswagen fuel emission standard scandal, Toyota's unintended acceleration debacle and the Takata airbag recall -- can affect drivers' safety or at the very least undermine consumer trust. To ensure more safety on the roads, it's critical that consumers are educated about recalls and understand what actions they can take to get their vehicles fixed. Here's what you should know:
Recalls are initiated when a vehicle or part of a vehicle doesn't meet minimum Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and poses a safety risk for drivers, passengers and other motorists. Recalls can involve safety-related defects such as faulty steering components that cause a driver to lose control of a vehicle, wiring system issues that become fire hazards or defective accelerator controls. Non-safety related defects include faulty air conditioners and radios or normal car battery issues.
Either a car manufacturer or NHTSA will issue a mandated recall of a car or car part, which can occur after NHTSA receives several reports about safety defects on a particular vehicle, launches an investigation and orders an automaker to issue a recall. Car manufacturers also have departments dedicated to reviewing every customer complaint. If complaints about a defect go above a certain threshold, an automaker will consider whether it is serious enough to warrant a recall, Shah says. About 98 percent of recalls are voluntary, she says.
Whether the recall is voluntary or mandated, automakers are required to notify their customers by first-class mail and repair the issue for free. The notification typically includes details about the safety risk the defect poses, provides instructions about how to repair the problem and how long the repair will take.
If you haven't received a letter but think your vehicle is part of the recall, contact NHTSA's Vehicle Safety Hotline at 888-327-4236 or 800-424-9393 or search for recalls using your VIN number on www.safercar.gov. It's also a good idea to contact your car's manufacturer for more information.
After a recall is issued, an automaker is required to either repair the car or defective part for free, replace it or issue a full refund for the purchase price of the car (minus depreciation).
Even if you've purchased a used car or the car is no longer under warranty, a car dealer can search for open recalls by VIN number and repair the issue.
"It's the obligation of the auto manufacturer to have it fixed, and of course the obligation is that the car can be fixed whether you bought it new or used," says George Hoffer, an economics professor at the University of Richmond who has spent more than 40 years researching recalls. "You just have to take it to the authorized dealer of that brand and then the factory reimburses that dealer."
If you've paid for repairs before a recall is issued, you may be entitled to reimbursement depending on the circumstances. Car manufacturers are required to reimburse car owners based on either the date NHTSA launches an engineering analysis (a key part of its investigation) or the year before the automaker notifies the agency of the safety defect, whichever date comes first. Car owners who've already paid for a repair are eligible for a reimbursement up until 10 days after the manufacturer sends the final notices about the safety recall to customers. An auto manufacturer is required to issue a free replacement for these car owners up until 30 days after it issues final notices about the recall. To be reimbursed, car owners are required to provide documentation of the pre-recall repair costs they've incurred.
If your vehicle is more than 10 years old on the date the defect is discovered, you aren't eligible for a free repair. Automakers determine the age of the vehicle based on when it was sold to the original owner, so if you've purchased a used car this stipulation will affect you. Still, it's important that car owners get safety defects repaired, even if they have to pay for it themselves. Ignoring a safety recall could put you and other drivers in jeopardy.
Fortunately, the law sides with car owners in these cases. Legal agreements between authorized dealers and automakers require the dealer to do a free repair when there's a recall, even if you didn't originally purchase your car at that location. However, it's important for car owners to understand that there's often a gap between when an automaker or NHTSA determines a recall is necessary and when a car manufacturer informs consumers of a remedy for the recall. During this time lag a dealer is not required to do a free repair, so it's best for car owners to wait until they receive a notice to correct the repair. If the issue is urgent, a manufacturer may send a notice in the meantime about what actions car owners can take to reduce the likelihood the defect will happen. Seeking reimbursement for a pre-recall repair also is an option.
Recalls don't expire, but if you get into an accident involving a recalled part that hasn't been fixed, your insurance company may deny your claim, according to Penny Gusner, a consumer analyst for CarInsurance.com.
"If you continued to drive your car for a substantial amount of time after being aware there was a defect, it's believed that you understood the risks and didn't take due care," Gusner says. "For this reason, your insurance company may be able to turn down claims for your vehicle if the defect causes you to crash."
If you filed an insurance claim before the recall and have comprehensive coverage, your insurer should pay out the claim and the car manufacturer should reimburse them.
"Your insurer can go after the car maker to recoup their claim costs," Gusner says. "They will, of course, have to submit paperwork proving that the defective part caused the accident it paid out."
According to NHTSA, on average 25 percent of recalled cars don't ever get fixed.
There are plenty of reasons why, according to several studies. Hoffer conducted research over a decade ago that indicated the age of the car and the severity of the recall affect whether the defect is repaired.
"The newer the vehicle, the more likely it is to be returned. This makes sense because it's in the hands of the person who bought the car from the original dealer," he says.
"The more severe the recall type (loss of steering control and fires, for example), the greater the response," Hoffer adds.
The language automakers use to notify consumers about a recall may have an impact, too. A 2013 study by researchers at Stony Brook University found the language car manufacturers use conveys less of a sense of urgency and risk than the language NHTSA uses to describe recalls (including the word "death," for example). This may impact whether car owners get their vehicles fixed.
"We find that notification letters, through alerting language used to describe the risk of not correcting the defect, play an important role in increasing the correction rates," researchers Yong-Kyun Bae and Hugo Benitez-Silva said in the study.
But the onus can't solely be on car manufacturers. Car owners must be more vigilant to keep themselves safe. And this begins with awareness. NHTSA recently launched a recall spotlight feature on its site to give car owners the latest information on recalls. The agency also advises car owners to check for open recalls at least twice a year using its free VIN lookup tool. Subscribing to a free app like myCarFax, which sends recall alerts, also can keep you informed.
Experts say automakers can do several things to improve safety, too. Shah suggests focusing on more standard options could reduce assembly line errors that lead to recalls. The Stony Brook researchers also suggest that regulating the language used in recall notices could ensure more car owners get their vehicles repaired.
Hoffer says adding service perks like a free oil change could incentivize more car owners to do repairs. Still, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.
"Some recalls are amazingly cheap to fix and others are super expensive, but the bottom line is a recall is costly, so clearly there should be an incentive on the part of the manufacturer to minimize them."