Working Papers
"Strategic Responses to Disparities in Spousal Desired Fertility: Experimental Evidence from Rural Tanzania" (with Catalina Herrera-Almanza) (under review)
Fertility decline in rural sub-Saharan Africa has lagged behind other developing regions. The gap in fertility preferences between men and women plays a pivotal role in determining fertility, with men typically desiring more children and exerting more intra-household bargaining power. We estimate the effect of an informational family planning program that randomizes the inclusion of husbands on fertility preferences in rural Tanzania. Surprisingly, husbands who participated in joint family planning consultations increased their desired fertility, and their wives converged to this with a large increase in their desired fertility as well. In contrast, women in private family planning consultations reduced their fertility preferences, while their husbands' preferences remained unchanged. We provide evidence that the increase in fertility preferences as a result of the joint consultations is driven by women in polygamous marriages who increase their demand for children as a strategic response to their husbands' stated preferences.
"Misperceived Social Norms and Family Planning in Tanzania" (with Catalina Herrera-Almanza, Lindsey K. Novak and Mahesh Karra)
Family planning initiatives in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) often focus on improving access to contraceptives, but these efforts are unlikely to be successful when fertility desires remain high. In focus group discussions in this Northern Tanzania, many stated the importance and desire for large families. However, many couples adopted contraceptives after private family planning consultations (McCarthy, 2019). This concordance behavior may stem from misperceptions about community norms, where individuals incorrectly believe their community disapproves of contraception or small families. Such misconceptions can deter contraceptive use due to fears of social stigmatization. This research project is an innovative approach to addressing high fertility in sub-Saharan Africa, bringing together seminal behavioral research demonstrating that community misperceptions can lead individuals to non-optimal outcomes (Bursztyn, González, and Yanagizawa-Drott, 2020) with public health strategies to reduce unmet family planning needs. With a randomized control trial, we will measure the causal effect of providing correct information about community family planning attitudes on fertility outcomes. In this pilot phase of research, we will survey 1300 couples in the Simiyu region about their own beliefs and their perceptions of their community’s beliefs about ideal family size and approval of contraceptive use. In the second phase, a trusted health official will share accurate information, based on the phase one survey, about community attitudes toward family planning with a subset of couples. We will then measure the causal effect of accurate information on fertility outcomes.
Peer-Reviewed Publications
Aine Seitz McCarthy and Brooke Krause. "Age and Agency: Evidence from a Women’s Empowerment Program in Tanzania." World Development 178 (2024): 106591.
*Summary on Twitter
Aine Seitz McCarthy and Rachel Pearlman. "Multiplying Siblings: The Trade-off Between Family Size and Child Education Quality in Rural Bangladesh" Journal of Development Studies 58, no 9 (2022):1831-1856 [Final Manuscript ]
*Summary on Twitter
Rodrigo Lovaton Davila, Aine Seitz McCarthy, Dorothy Gondwe, Phatta Kirdruang and Uttam Sharma. "Water, Walls and Bicycles: Wealth Index Composition Using Census Microdata" Journal of Demographic Economics 88, no. 1 (2022)[Final Manuscript]
Damon, Amy L. and Aine Seitz McCarthy. "Partnerships and production: Agriculture and polygyny in Tanzanian households." Agricultural Economics 50, no. 5(2019): 527-542 [Final Manuscript]
Aine Seitz McCarthy. "Intimate Partner Violence and Family Planning Decisions: Experimental Evidence from Rural Tanzania." World Development 114 (2019): 156-174. [Final Manuscript]
*Featured on the World Bank's Development Impact blog
Brooke L. Krause, Aine Seitz McCarthy and David Chapman. "Fueling financial literacy: Estimating the impact of youth entrepreneurship training in Tanzania." Journal of Development Effectiveness. 8.2 (2016): 234-256. [Final Manuscript]
Professional Publications
Harry J. Thie, Margaret C. Harrell, Aine Seitz McCarthy, and Joseph Jenkins. Consolidated Afloat Networks and Enterprise Services (CANES): Manpower, Personnel and Training Implications. RAND Monograph 896-NAVY. Santa Monica, CA: RAND 2009.
Works in Progress
"Sierra Leone Sees to Learn: The Educational Impact of Eyeglasses" (with Paul Glewwe, Lindsey K. Novak, Brooke Krause, Jalikatu Mustapha, Nathan Congdon, Andy de Barros)
Awarded funding ($1.5 million) by USAID Development Innovations Ventures
"Randomized Evaluation of Active-Learning Teacher Training in Rural Tanzanian Secondary Schools" (with Paul Glewwe, Lindsey K. Novak and Nelson Masanche Nkoma). Funding awarded by JPAL Post-Primary Education Initiative
Awarded pilot funding ($10,000) by J-PAL
Popular Press Writing (Not Research)
McCarthy, Aine Seitz (2024) "America Needs to Retake Econ 101" Los Angeles Times, Dec 5.