**Working Papers**

"Rational Bubbles: Too Many to be True?" Tomás E. Caravello (MIT), Zacharias Psaradakis (University of London), Martín Sola (UTDT)

"Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Markov Regime-Switching Models with Covariate-Dependent Transition Probabilities" Demian Pouzo (UC Berkeley), Transition Probabilities" Zacharias Psaradakis (University of London), Martín Sola (UTDT)

"Risk Aversion and Changes in Regime" Tomás E. Caravello (MIT), Turalay Kenc, (INCEIF and CERF), Martín Sola (UTDT)

“On Testing for Bubbles During Hyperinflations” with Rubens Morita, Zacharias Psaradakis and Patricio Yunis.

Agustin Gutierrez & Constantino Hevia & Martin Sola, 2018. "**Bond Risk Premia and the ”Return Forecasting Factor”**," Department of Economics Working Papers 2018_04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.

Constantino Hevia & Martin Sola, 2018. "**Bond risk premia and restrictions on risk prices**," Department of Economics Working Papers 2018_03, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.

Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2017. "**Markov-Switching Models with State-Dependent Time-Varying Transition Probabilities**," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1702, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.

Demian Pouzo & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2016. "**Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Markov Regime-Switching Models with Covariate-Dependent Transition Probabilities**," Papers 1612.04932, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.

Hevia, Constantino & Petrella, Ivan & Sola, Martin, 2016. "**Risk Premia and Seasonality in Commodity Futures**," CEPR Discussion Papers 11169, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

Demian Pouzo & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2016. "**Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Possibly Misspeci ed Dynamic Models with Time-Inhomogeneous Markov Regimes**," Department of Economics Working Papers 2016_04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.

Martín González-Rozada & Martín Sola, 2014. "**Towards a “New” Inflation Targeting Framework: The Case of Uruguay**," Research Department Publications IDB-WP-486, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.

Martin Gonzalez-Rozada & Martin sola & Constantino Hevia & Fabio Spagnolo, 2012. "**Estimating and Forecasting the Yield Curve Using a Markov Switching Dynamic Nelson and Siegel Model**," Department of Economics Working Papers 2012-07, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.

Michael J. Dueker & Michael T. Owyang & Martin Sola, 2010. "**A time-varying threshold STAR model of unemployment and the natural rate**," Working Papers 2010-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Michael J. Dueker & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2010. "**State-Dependent Threshold STAR Models**," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 818.10, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).

Martín Solá & Zacharias Psaradakis & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2010. "**Some Cautionary Results Concerning Markov-Switching Models with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities**," Department of Economics Working Papers 2010-12, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.

John Driffill & Martin Sola & Turalay Kenc, 2009. "**Real Options with Priced Regime-Switching Risk**," Department of Economics Working Papers 2009-09, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.

Michael Dueker & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2009. "**Contemporaneous-Threshold Smooth Transition GARCH Models**," Department of Economics Working Papers 2009-06, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.

Michael J. Dueker & Martin Sola, 2008. "**Multivariate Markov switching with weighted regime determination: giving France more weight than Finland**," Working Papers 2008-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Michael J. Dueker & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2007. "**Multivariate contemporaneous threshold autoregressive models**," Working Papers 2007-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.Economics.

Michael J. Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2006. "**Contemporaneous threshold autoregressive models: estimation, testing and forecasting**," Working Papers 2003-024, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis..

John Driffill (Birkbeck College) & Martin Sola (UTDT), 2005. "**Target Zones for Exchange Rates and Policy Changes**," Department of Economics Working Papers 2005-03, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.

Driffill, John & Kenc, Turalay & Sola, Martin & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2004. "**On Model Selection and Markov Switching: A Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts**," CEPR Discussion Papers 4165, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

Marzia raybaudi & Martin sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2003. "**Red Signals: Trade Deficits and the Current Account**," Public Policy Discussion Papers 03-14, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.rsity.

Psaradakis, Zacharias & Ravn, Morten O & Sola, Martin, 2003. "**Markov Switching Causality and the Money-Output Relationship**," CEPR Discussion Papers 3803, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

Fabio Spagnolo & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2003. "**Testing the Unbiased Forward Exchange Rate Hypothesis Using a Markov Switching Model and Instrumental Variables**," Public Policy Discussion Papers 03-15, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.

Martin Sola & Zacharias Psaradakis, 2002. "**On Detrending and Cyclical Asymmetry**," Department of Economics Working Papers 020, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.

Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2002. "**A Test for Volatility Spillovers**," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-04, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.

Martin Sola & Marzia Raybaudi & Shasikanta Nandeibam, 2002. "**On The Optimal Timing of Introduction of New Products**," Department of Economics Working Papers 023, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.

Martin Sola & M Karansos & Zacharias Psaradakis, 2002. "**On the autocorrelation properties of Long Memory Garch Processes**," Department of Economics Working Papers 025, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.

Vasco J. Gabriel & Martin Sola & Zacharias Psaradakis, 2002. "**Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple regime shifts**," NIPE Working Papers 7/2002, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.tion, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.

Vasco J. Gabriel & Martin Sola & Zacharias Psaradakis, 2001. "**A simple method for testing cointegration subject to regime changes**," NIPE Working Papers 15/2001, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

Garratt, Anthony & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1998. "**An Empirical Reassessment of Target-zone Nonlinearities**," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9825, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

Morten O. Ravn & Martín Solà, 1997. "**Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in the US: Positive vs. negative or big vs. small?**," Economics Working Papers 247, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 1997.

S. Hall & M. Solá, 1993. "**Structural breaks and GARCH modelling**," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0793, Department of Economics - dECON.

M. Funke & S. Hall & M. Solá, 1993. "**Rational bubbles during Polland’s hiperinflation: implications and empirical evidence**," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 1193, Department of Economics - dECON.

Z. Psaradakis & M. Solá, 1993. "**On the power of tests for superexogeneity and structural invariance**," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0993, Department of Economics - dECON.

Menelaos Karanasos & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, "undated". "**Cross-Sectional Aggregation and Persistence in Conditional Variance**," Discussion Papers 00/09, Department of Economics, University of York.