Research
Published Papers
Growth and Development
“Two Blades of Grass: The Impact of the Green Revolution,” with Casper Worm Hansen (University of Copenhagen) and Asger Moll Wingender (University of Copenhagen). Forthcoming, Journal of Political Economy. (Link here is to open access pre-publication version.)
“Heterogeneity, Measurement Error, and Misallocation: Evidence from African Agriculture,” with Christopher Udry (Northwestern University). 2021. Journal of Political Economy 129(1): 1-80. Pre-publication version here. For a thoughtful critique of our approach, see this paper and this paper by our colleagues, Diego Restuccia, Fernando Arago, and Juan Pablo Rud.
“Do Urban Wage Premia Reflect Lower Amenities: Evidence from Africa” with Martina Kirchberger (Trinity College Dublin) and David Lagakos (Boston University). 2021. Journal of Urban Economics 121. Open access pre-publication version here.
“Rural-Urban Linkages, Public Investment and Transport Costs: The Case of Tanzania,” with Christopher Adam and David Bevan. 2018. World Development 109: 497-510. Open access version here.
"Urbanization with and without Industrialization," with Remi Jedwab (George Washington University) and Dietz Vollrath (University of Houston). 2016. Journal of Economic Growth 21: 35-70. Pre-publication version here.
“Food and Agriculture: Shifting Landscapes for Policy,” with Lilli Teresa Probst. 2015. Oxford Review of Economic Policy 31(1): 8-25. Pre-publication version here.
"Agriculture in African Development: Theories and Strategies," with Stefan Dercon. 2014, Annual Review of Resource Economics (6): 471-92.
"The Lewis Model: A 60-Year Retrospective." 2014. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(3): 71-88.
"Agricultural Productivity Differences across Countries," with David Lagakos and Michael Waugh. 2014. American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings , 104(5): 165-70. Pre-publication version here.
"The Agricultural Productivity Gap," with David Lagakos and Michael Waugh. 2014. Quarterly Journal of Economics 129(2): 939-993. Pre-publication version here.
"Productivity, Transport Costs, and Subsistence Agriculture," with Richard Rogerson. 2014. Journal of Development Economics 107: 38-48. A previous version of this paper, with richer detail on transport costs in Uganda, is available as NBER Working Paper No. 15863.
“Equipping Immigrants: Migration Flows and Capital Movements in Small Open Economies," with Fabian Lange. 2013. Review of World Economics 149(4): 749-777 .
"Global Climate Change, the Economy, and the Resurgence of Tropical Disease," with Christian Zimmermann. 2012. Mathematical Population Studies 19:51–62. Pre-publication version here.
“Nobody’s Business but My Own: Self Employment and Small Enterprise in Economic Development.” 2008. Journal of Monetary Economics 55(2) 219-33. Pre-publication version here.
“The Food Problem and the Evolution of International Income Levels,” with Stephen Parente and Richard Rogerson. 2007. Journal of Monetary Economics 54(4): 1230-1255. Pre-publication version here.
“Farm Work, Home Work, and International Productivity Differences,” with Stephen Parente and Richard Rogerson. 2004. Review of Economic Dynamics 7(4): 827-850.
“The Role of Agriculture in Development,” with Stephen Parente and Richard Rogerson. American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 92(2) May 2002: 160-164. Working paper version here.
“Getting Income Shares Right.” Journal of Political Economy 110(2) April 2002: 458-474. (Data, figures, and tables in Excel format). Working paper version here.
Economics of Agricultural Research, Science, and Technology
“Conserving Genetic Resources for Agriculture: Economic Implications of Emerging Science.” 2020. Food Security 12: 919–927.
“Animal Genetic Resource Trade Flows: Economic Assessment,” with Eric Van Dusen and Harvey Blackburn. 2009. Livestock Science 120: 248-255.
“Animal Genetic Resource Trade Flows: The Utilization of Newly Imported Breeds and the Gene Flow of Individual Animals in the United States of America,” with Harvey Blackburn. 2009. Livestock Science 120: 240-247.
“Technology Adoption in Intensive Post-Green Revolution Systems,” with Michael Morris and Derek Byerlee. 2005. American Journal of Agricultural Economics (Proceedings) 87(5): 1310-1316.
“Assessing the Impact of the Green Revolution, 1960-2000,” with Robert E. Evenson. 2003. Science 300 (2 May): 758-762.
“Valuing Animal Genetic Resources: Lessons from Plant Genetic Resources,” with Robert E. Evenson. 2003. Ecological Economics 45: 353-363.
“Searching an Ex Situ Collection of Wheat Genetic Resources,” with Melinda Smale and Bent Skovmand. 2000. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 82(4): 812-827.
"Genetic Resources, International Organizations, and Improvement in Rice Varieties," with Robert E. Evenson. 1997. Economic Development and Cultural Change 45(3): 471-500.
Work in Progress
"Crop Yields Fail to Rise in Smallholder Farming Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa," with Philip Wollburg, Thomas Bentze, Yuchen Lu, and Christopher Udry. April 2024. Accepted at Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, but subject to embargo; draft not available.
"The Seeds of Misallocation: Fertilizer Use and Maize Varietal Misidentification in Ethiopia," with Nils Bohr, Tim Deisemann, Frederic Kosmowski, and Travis Lybbert. October 2023. Revise and Resubmit at Journal of Development Economics.
“Human Mobility and Spatial Frictions in Three African Countries,” with Paul Blanchard and Martina Kirchberger. September 2023.
“The Long-Run Development Impacts of Agricultural Productivity Gains: Evidence from Irrigation Canals in India,” with Sam Asher, Alison Campion, and Paul Novosad. September 2023
"Agricultural Trade and Deforestation: The Role of New Roads," with Julien Wolfersberger. October 2023. Revise and Resubmit at Economic Journal.
"The Gender Division of Work across Countries," with Charles Gottlieb, Cheryl Doss, and Markus Poschke. April 2024.
“Urban-Rural Definitions and Spatial Income Gaps,” with Martina Kirchberger, David Lagakos, and Shraddha Mandi. November 2021.
“The Persistence of Agricultural Productivity Gaps,” with David Lagakos and Shraddha Mandi.
Book Chapters and Articles
“Farm Size and Productivity: Lessons from Recent Literature,” IFAD Research Series, No. 34. September 2018.
“Agriculture,Roads, and Economic Development in Uganda,” with Richard Rogerson, Chapter 2 in African Successes: Modernization and Development, ed. Sebastian Edwards, Simon Johnson, and David N. Weil (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2015). [Previously released as NBER Working Paper No. 15863, March 2010.]
“Agriculture as an Engine of Growth and Poverty Reduction: Lessons for Africa,” Chapter 4 in Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa: Current and Emerging Issue, ed. Andrew McKay and Erik Thorbecke (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015).
"Climate Change and Technological Innovation in Agriculture: Adaptation through Science," Chapter 17 in Handbook of Climate Change and Agriculture, ed. Ariel Dinar and Robert Mendelsohn (New York: Edward Elgar, 2012).
"Agricultural Productivity and Economic Growth," chapter for Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Volume 4, June 2009.
"Labour's Share of Income," entry for the New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition, 2007.
“Contributions of National Agricultural Research Systems to Crop Productivity,” with R. E. Evenson., in Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 3a (New York: North-Holland, 2007).
Unpublished Papers Likely to Stay Unpublished
"Do Taxes on Large Firms Impede Growth? Evidence from Ghana,” August 2006.
“Malaria: Disease Impacts and Long-Run Income Differences,” joint with Christian Zimmermann (University of Connecticut), March 2010.
"Malaria Policy: Alternative Prevention and Eradication Strategies in a Dynamic Model," joint with Christian Zimmermann (University of Connecticut), September 2007.
“Impact of International Research on Intertemporal Yield Stability in Wheat and Maize: An Economic Assessment,” April 2006.
Selected Public Lectures and Presentations
"Past, Present, and Future of Measuring Technology Adoption in Agriculture: Lessons from the CGIAR Standing Panel on Impact Assessment," BMGF Agricultural Development MLE Convening, Bangkok, 27 May 2015.
"Lewis Models and Their Influence on Thinking in Development," IGC-STICERD Sir Arthur Lewis Symposium on Growth and Development, London School of Economics, 22 June 2015.
"An Economist's View of Food Security: The Roles of Distribution, Production, and Science - Economic Views of Food Security," 2nd Annual Oxford Global Food Security Conference, 27 April 2013.
Data Sets
Bob Evenson's guesstimates of modern variety diffusion by country and by crop, 1960-2000. Bob died in 2013 without writing up a detailed description of his methodology in compiling this data set, but his estimates were based on careful review of data from national and international centers.
Data and figures for Evenson-Gollin Science article.
Factor share data for my 2002 JPE paper "Getting Income Shares Right".