This overview includes some of my published work on behavioural finance, central bank communication, climate finance, and financial stability. A full overview of publications is available in my CV.
"Central bank communication with the general public: Promise or false hope?"
2024, with Alan S. Blinder, Michael Ehrmann, and Jakob de Haan.
Journal of Economic Literature, 62(2): 425-457.
We survey a rapidly growing literature on central bank communication with the public. On balance, we see some promise in the potential to inform the public better, but many challenges along the way.
Versions: JEL
Media: The Economist
"The international spillovers of the 2010 U.S. Flash Crash."
2021.
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 53(6): 1573-1586.
The 2010 U.S. Flash Crash had a substantial and almost immediate echo in Latin American equity markets; these spillovers followed from normal interdependence rather than financial contagion.
Versions: JMCB Manuscript
"The heat is on: A framework for measuring financial stress under disruptive energy transition scenarios."
2021, with Robert Vermeulen, Edo Schets, Melanie Lohuis, Barbara Koelbl and Willem Heeringa.
Ecological Economics 190: 107205.
A transition stress test for more than 80 Dutch financial institutions finds that financial losses could be sizeable, suggesting that climate-transition risks warrant close attention from a financial stability perspective.
Versions: EE
"Necessity as the mother of invention: Monetary policy after the crisis."
2017, with Alan S. Blinder, Michael Ehrmann and Jakob de Haan.
Economic Policy Volume 32, Issue 92: 707-755.
After the financial crisis, monetary policy will probably work with a broadened mandate, which it seeks to fulfil using an extended set of instruments, whilst communicating more actively. This may well have implications for central bank independence.
Media: Wall Street Journal
"The pitch rather than the pit: Investor inattention, trading activity, and FIFA World Cup matches."
2017, with Michael Ehrmann.
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 49(4): 807-821.
Using soccer matches as exogenous shocks, we show how shifts in investor attention affect trading activity and stock return comovement.
Versions: JMCB Manuscript
Media: Reuters
"It hurts (stock prices) when your team is about to lose a soccer match."
2016, with Michael Ehrmann.
Review of Finance 20(3): 1215-1233.
Using soccer elimination matches, we show that human emotions can quickly affect stock prices, even in a context where one would expect a high degree of market efficiency.
Versions: RF Manuscript
"Does the clarity of central bank communication affect volatility in financial markets? Evidence from Humphrey-Hawkins testimonies."
2011.
Contemporary Economic Policy 29(4): 494-509.
The clarity of testimonies by the Federal Reserve Chairman affects financial market volatility, in particular that of medium-term interest rates.
Versions: COEP Manuscript
Media: Reuters
"Central bank communication and monetary policy: A survey of theory and evidence."
2008, with Alan S. Blinder, Michael Ehrmann, Marcel Fratzscher, and Jakob de Haan.
Journal of Economic Literature 46(4): 910-945.
Central bank communication can move financial markets, enhance predictability, and potentially help achieve macroeconomic objectives.