Research

Refereed Publications

"China's Declining Business Dynamism." Joint with Cian Ruane. [Link to WP version] accepted at Canadian Journal of Economics.

"Supply Spillovers During the Pandemic: Evidence from High-Frequency Shipping Data," forthcoming at World Economy. Joint with Andras Komaromi. [Link]

"Trade and Income in the Long Run: Are There Really Gains, and Are They Widely Shared?," Review of International Economics, Vol. 29, Issue 4, September 2021, pp. 703-731. Joint with Andras Komaromi. [Link]

"Financial Openness and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: In Search of Robust Evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Vol. 73, May 2021, pp. 444-458. Joint with Andras Komaromi. [Link]

"Contagion Exposure and Protection Technology," Games and Economic Behavior, Volume 105, September 2017, pp. 230-254. [Link] 

"Individual Security, Contagion, and Network Design," Journal of Economic Theory, Volume 170, July 2017, pp. 182-226. Joint with Marcin Dziubinski and Sanjeev Goyal. [Link]

"International Trade Transmission Channel of a Local Crisis," Economica, Vol. LIV (1-2) 2008, pp. 87-119. Joint with Ariel Wirkierman. [Link]

"Crisis y Patron de Especializacion Comercial en Economias Emergentes. El Caso de la Argentina," Problemas del Desarrollo, Vol. 38, núm. 150, jul-sep 2007. Joint with Marta Bekerman. [Link]

Non-Refereed Publications

"The Stretch of Supply Chains," Finance & Development, June 2022. Joint with Niels-Jakob H. Hansen. [Link]

Selected Policy Research Work

"Supply Chains and Port Congestion Around the World," IMF Working Paper 22/59. Joint with Andras Komaromi and Yang Liu. [Link, short video]

"Sizing Up the Effects of Technological Decoupling," IMF Working Paper 21/69. Joint with Johannes Eugster, Rui C. Mano, Dirk Muir and Shanaka J. Peiris. [Link, short video]

"Stress Testing U.S. Leveraged Corporates in a COVID-19 World," IMF Working Paper 20/238. Joint with Carlos Caceres, Dan Pan and Suchanan Tambunlertchai. [Link] 

"World Seaborne Trade in Real Time: A Proof of Concept for Building AIS-based Nowcasts from Scratch," IMF Working Paper 20/57. Joint with Andras Komaromi, Yang Liu and Mamoon Saeed. [Link] Media: IMFBlog, FreightWaves, Wall Street Journal, NZZ. Access to country-level estimates: WP website, UN COMTRADE Dashboard.

"The Inflexible Structure of Global Supply Chains," IMF Working Paper 19/193. Joint with Tam Bayoumi and Jelle Barkema. [Link] [Box 2.4 in IMF's 2019 External Sector Report]

"The Revised EBA-Lite Methodology," IMF Policy Paper No. 19/026. Joint with Mitali Das (lead) and others. [Link] [Box 1.6 in IMF's 2019 External Sector Report]

"Trade Tensions: Updated Scenario," Scenario Box 1.2 in IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2019. Joint with Carlos Caceres, Rui C Mano, Rafael Portillo and Marika Santoro. [Link]

"Trade Wars and Trade Deals: Estimated Effects using a Multi-Sector Model," IMF Working Paper 19/143, 2019. Joint with Carlos Caceres and Rui C. Mano. [Link]

"The Global Macro and Micro Effects of a US–China Trade Dispute: Insights from Three Models," Box 4.4 in IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2019. Joint with Carlos Caceres, Rui C Mano, Rafael Portillo and Marika Santoro. [Link]

"Measuring Competitiveness in a World of Global Value Chains," IMF Working Paper 18/229, 2018. Joint with Tam Bayoumi, Maximiliano Appendino and Jelle Barkema. [Link]

"Effects of U.S. Tariffs and Potential Retaliatory Measures," Box 1 in IMF Regional Economic Outlook, Western Hemisphere Department, October 2018. Joint with Carlos Caceres, Troy Matheson and Peter Williams. [Link]

"A Multidimensional Approach to Trade Policy Indicators," IMF Working Paper 18/32, 2018. Joint with Rachel J. Nam. [Link] [Box 1.6 in IMF's April 2018 World Economic Outlook] [Box 3.7 in WTO's July 2018 Report on G20 Trade Measures]

"Taking Stock: Who Benefited from the Oil Price Shocks," IMF Working Paper 17/104, 2017. Joint with Dmitry Plotnikov. [Link]

"The Role of Trade Policies in Reinvigorating Trade," Box 2.2. in Chapter 2 of IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2016. Joint with Christian Henn. [Link]

"Estimating the Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership on Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Paper 16/101, 2016. [Link]

"Assessing Risks in the Panamanian Banking Sector: Stress-Testing and Contagion Analysis," Panama: Selected Issues, IMF Country Report 15/238, 2015. Joint with Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov and Torsten Wezel. [Link]

"Transforming Panama into a World-Class Hub," Blog Dialogo a Fondo, August 2015. Joint with Fang Yang. [Links: English/Spanish]

"Measuring Monetary Policy in Open Economies," World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5252, 2010. [Link]

Other: PhD Dissertation

Three Essays on Social Interactions, Cambridge, June 2014. [Link]