Journal Articles

The division of revenues from unexpected demand shocks (with Natália P. Monteiro and Odd Rune Straume), Scandinavian Journal of Economics, forthcoming.

The quality and price of Africa's imports of digital goods (with Lucio Castro and Marcio Cruz), World Economy, June, 2025.

The effect of educated leaders on policy and politics (with Cristian Sanchez), Latin American Economic Review, 33, 2024.

Robots, tasks, and trade (with Erhan Artuc and Bob Rijkers), Journal of International Economics, 145, 103828, 2023. Blogs: Let's Talk Development; VoxDev Column

Resource rents, coercion, and local development: Evidence from post-apartheid South Africa (with Nicolas Bottan), World Development, 169 (September), 106289, 2023.

Economic integration, industrial structure, and catch-up growth: Firm-level evidence from Poland (with Stefania Lovo, Gonzalo Varela and Jan Hagemejer), Review of International Economics, April, 1-35, 2022. 

Long-run effects of trade liberalization on local labor markets: Evidence from South Africa (with Nicolas Santos), World Economy, 45(10), 3059-3079, 2022.

Exposure of Belt and Road Economies to China Trade Shocks, Journal of Development Economics, 145(June), 2020. Blog: The Trade Post

Export destinations and input prices (with Joana Silva and Eric Verhoogen), American Economic Review, 108(2), 353-392, 2018. Blogs: World Bank Research Digest Summary (p. 4); VoxDev. Awarded: GEE-PwC Competitiveness and Internationalization Prize

Foreign acquisition and internal organization (with Natalia P. Monteiro and Odd Rune Straume), Journal of International Economics, 114(5), 143-163, 2018.

Learning, prices, and firm dynamics (with Daniel Dias and Olga Timoshenko). Canadian Journal of Economics, 51(4), 1257-1311, 2018. Blog:  Portuguese Economy Research Report; Awarded: GEE-PwC Competitiveness and Internationalization Prize 

Access to pre-primary education and progression in primary school: Evidence from rural Guatemala (with Julian Cristia and Nicolas Bottan), Economic Development and Cultural Change, 65(3), 521-547, 2017.

Exports and job training (with Joana Silva and Rafael Proenca), Review of International Economics,  24(4), 737-756, 2016.

Preschool education in Brazil: Does public supply crowd out private enrollment? (with Odd Rune Straume), World Development, 78, 496-510, 2016.

Does energy consumption respond to price shocks? Evidence from a regression-discontinuity design (with Lucio Castro, Julian Cristia and Carlos Scartascini), Journal of Industrial Economics, 63(2), 249-278, 2015.

The effect of private versus public ownership on labor earnings (with Odd Rune Straume and Natália P. Monteiro), Oxford Economic Papers, 66(4), 983-1005, 2014.

The impact of private versus public ownership on the level and structure of employment (with Odd Rune Straume and Natália P. Monteiro), Economics of Transition, 22(2), 247-280, 2014.

Rain, agriculture, and tariffs (with Odd Rune Straume and Jaime A. Urrego), Journal of International Economics, 90(2), 364-377, 2013.

Exchange rates and wages in unionized labor markets (with Peter Wright), Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 65(4), 975-999, 2012.

Networks, firms, and trade (with Joana Silva), Journal of International Economics, 87(2), 352-364, 2012. Blog: Portuguese Economy Research Report

Globalization, product differentiation and wage inequality (with Odd Rune Straume), Canadian Journal of Economics, 45(3), 857-878, 2012.

Supply and quality choices in private child care markets: Evidence from São Paulo (with Julian Cristia), Journal of Development Economics, 98(2), 149-286, 2012.

Managers and wage policies (with Natália P. Monteiro), Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, 20(4), 957-984, 2011. Lead article.

The quality of a firm's exports: Where you export to matters (with Joana Silva), Journal of International Economics, 82(2), 99-111, 2010. Lead article.

Open shop unions and product market competition (with Udo Kreickemeier and Peter Wright), Canadian Journal of Economics, 43(2), 640-662, 2010.

Identifying vertically differentiated products (with Joana Silva), Economics Letters, 106(1), 32-34, 2010.

Unions, competition and international trade in general equilibrium (with Udo Kreickemeier), Journal of International Economics, 79(2), 238-247, 2009.

Oligopoly, open shop unions and trade liberalisation (with Udo Kreickemeier and Peter Wright), International Journal of Industrial Organization, 27(6), 679-686, 2009.

Firm heterogeneity and wages in unionised labour markets: Theory and evidence (with Natália P. Monteiro and Odd Rune Straume), Labour Economics, 16(4), 440-450, 2009.

The dynamics of international trade patterns (with Manuel Cabral), Review of World Economics, 143(3), 391-415, 2007. Lead article.

Articles in Edited Volumes

Robots and trade: Implications for developing countries (with Erhan Artuc, Alexander Copestake and Bob Rijkers), in Lili Yan Ing and Gene Grossman (eds.), Robots and AI: A New Economic Era, Oxon and New York: Routledge, 2022.

Drought impacts and cost analysis for Northeast Brazil, in E. De Nys, N. Engle and Magalhaes, A. (eds.), Drought in Brazil: Proactive Management and Policy, 119-142, Taylor and Francis, 2016.

The wage and unemployment impacts of trade adjustment (with Joana Silva), in D. Greenaway, R. Upward and P. Wright (eds.), Globalisation and Labour Market Adjustment, 31-53, Palgrave Macmillan, 2008.

Selected Policy Work

World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains (Core Team Member)