Rural development, food security, and commodity risk management

Journal articles

• Long-term impacts of an unanticipated spike in food prices on child growth in Indonesia, with Futoshi Yamauchi, World Development 113, 2018.

• Why African rural development strategies must depend on small farms, with Rie Muraoka and Keijiro Otsuka, Global Food Security 10, 2016.

• Agricultural policies and trade paths in Turkey, with Will Martin, Sebnem Sahin and Marinos E. Tsigas, The World Economy, 39(8), 2016. 

• Food security and storage in the Middle East and North Africa with Julian Lampietti, Christophe Gouel, Carlo Cafiero, and John Robers. World Bank Economic Review 28(1), 48-73, 2014.

• Should African rural development strategies depend on smallholder farms? An exploration of the inverse productivity hypothesis with Keijiro Otsuka, Tomoya Matsumoto, and Talip Kilic, Agricultural Economics 45(3): 355-367.

• Introducing water to an analysis of alternative food security policies in the Middle East and North Africa Aquatic Procedia 1(2013): 30-43, 2013.

• Heterogeneous technology and panel data: the case of the agricultural production function with Yair Mundlak and Rita Butzer, Journal of Development Economics 99 (1), 2012.

• Do farmers choose to be inefficient? Evidence from Bicol with Frank Plessmann, Journal of Development Economics 90(1), 2009.

• On inverse carrying charges and spatial arbitrage Journal of Futures Markets 27(4), 2007.

• How endowments, accumulations and choice determine the geography of agricultural productivity in Ecuador with Mauricio Leon, World Bank Economic Review 20(3), 2006.

• Policies regarding risk in agricultural markets with Jock Anderson and Panos Varangis, World Bank Research Observer 19(2), 2004.

• Agricultural dynamics in Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines with Yair Mundlak and Rita Butzer, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 48(1), 2004.

• Commodity market reform in Africa: some recent experience with Takamasa Akiyama, John Baffes, and Panos Varangis, Economic Systems 27(1), 2003

• Intersectoral migration in Southeast Asia: Evidence from Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines with Rita Butzer and Yair Mundlak, Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 35(Supplement), 2003.

• Intersectoral migration in Venezuela with Rita Butzer and Yair Mundlak, Economic Development and Cultural Change 50(2), 2002.

• Uncertainty and the convenience yield in crude oil price backwardations with Timothy J. Considine, Energy Economics 23(5), 2001.

• Risk premiums on inventory assets: the case of crude oil and inventory assets with Timothy J. Considine, Journal of Futures Markets 21(2), 2001.

• A cross-country database for sector investment and capital with Yair Mundlak, Rita Butzer and Al Crego, World Bank Economic Review 14(2), 2000.

• Rethinking within and between regressions: The case of agricultural production functions with Yair Mundlak and Rita Butzer, Annales d’Economie et Statistique 55-56, 1999.

• Economic effects of taxes on exports of palm oil products with Stephen V. Marks and Jacqueline Pomeroy, Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies 34(3), 1998.

• The inter-sectoral migration of agricultural labor with Yair Mundlak, Economic Development and Cultural Change 45(2), 1997.

• On the transmission of world agricultural prices with Yair Mundlak, Washington: World Bank Economic Review 6(3), 1992.

Books and edited volumes

• • In Pursuit of an African Green Revolution: Views from Rice and Maize Farmers' Fields, with Keijiro Otsuak. Tokyo: Springer, 2016.

• An African Green Revolution: Finding Ways to Boost Productivity on Small Farms, with Keijiro Otsuka. Dordrecht: Springer, 2013.

• Vulnerable Places, Vulnerable People: Trade Liberalization, Rural Poverty and the Environment, with Jonathan Cook, Owen Cylke, John Nash and Pamela Stedman-Edwards. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 2010.

• Rural Development and Agricultural Growth in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, with Takamasa Akiyama. Canberra, Asia Pacific Press, 2004.

• Commodity Market Reforms: Lessons of Two Decades, with Takamasa Akiyama, John Baffes, and Panos Varangis. Washington: World Bank, 2001.

Book chapters

• Food prices and food price volatility. In: H.K. Baker, G. Filbeck and J.H. Harris (eds.), Commodities: Markets, Performance, and Strategies. New York: Oxford University Press, 2018.

  • On the determinants of low productivity in maize farming in Uganda: The role of markets, fertilizer use and gender, with Sara Savastano, Siobhan Murray and Amparo Palacios-López. In K. Otsuka and D. Larson (eds.) In Pursuit of an African Green Revolution: Views from Farmers' Fields. Tokyo: Springer, 2015.

• The Demand for fertilizer when markets are incomplete: Evidence from Ethiopia, with Daniel Zerfu. In An African Green Revolution: Finding Ways to Boost Productivity on Small Farms , Keijiro Otsuka and Donald F. Larson (eds.), Springer, 2013.

• Measures of fixed capital in agriculture, with Rita Butzer and Yair Mundlak. In Productivity Growth in Agriculture: An International Perspective, Keith Fuglie, Sun Ling Wang and V. Eldon Ball (eds.), Oxfordshire, UK: CAB International, 2012.

• Fostering a Green Revolution in rice: can Africa replicate Asia’s experience? with Keijiro Otsuka, Kei Kajisa, Jonna Estudillo, and Aliou Diagne. In Rice in the 21st Century Global Economy: Strategic Research and Policy Issues for Food Security . D. Dawe, D. Byerlee, S. Rozelle, A. Dobermann, S. Mohanty, B. Hardy and S. Pandey (eds.), Los Banos, Philippines: International Rice Research Institute, 2010.

• Food security: The need for multilateral action, with C. Delgado, R. Townsend, Y. Hoberg, S. Bora, W.J. Martin, D. Mitchell, K. Anderson, H. Zaman. In Postcrisis Growth and Development: A Development Agenda for the G-20. S. Fardoust, Y. Kim and C. Sepulveda (eds.), Washington: World Bank, 2010.

• Trade liberalization, rural poverty and the environment, with Jonathan Cook Owen Cylke, John Nash and Pamela Stedman-Edwards. In Vulnerable Places, Vulnerable People: Trade Liberalization, Rural Poverty and the Environment . Jonathan Cook, Owen Cylke, Donald F. Larson, John Nash and Pamela Stedman-Edwards (eds.), Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 2010.

• Lessons from the case studies, with John Nash. In Vulnerable Places, Vulnerable People: Trade Liberalization, Rural Poverty and the Environment . Jonathan Cook, Owen Cylke, Donald F. Larson, John Nash and Pamela Stedman-Edwards (eds), Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 2010.

• Measuring the efficiency of food markets: the case of Nicaragua. In Agricultural Commodity Markets and Trade: New Approaches to Analyzing Market Structure and Instability . Alexander Sarris and David Hallam (eds.), Cheltenham, Edward Elgar, 2006.

• Can financial markets be tapped to help poor people cope with weather risks? with Jerry Skees, Panayotis N. Varangis and Paul Siegel. In Insurance against Poverty. S. Dercon (ed.), New York, Oxford University Press, 2005.

• Determinants of agricultural Growth in Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines, with Y. Mundlak and R. Butzer. In Rural Development and Agricultural Growth in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. T. Akiyama and D. Larson (eds.), Canberra, Asia Pacific Press, 2004.

• Intersectoral migration in Southeast Asia -- evidence from Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines. with R. Butzer and Y. Mundlak. In Rural Development and Agricultural Growth in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. T. Akiyama and D. Larson (eds.), Canberra, Asia Pacific Press, 2004.

• Lessons on rural development and agricultural growth from Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. with T. Akiyama. In Rural Development and Agricultural Growth in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. T. Akiyama and D. Larson (eds.), Canberra, Asia Pacific Press, 2004.

• Endogenous markets, prices and trade reforms: evidence from African sector and community data. In Agricultural Trade and Poverty: Making Policy Analysis Count . J. Brooks (ed.). Paris: OECD, 2003.

• Agricultural markets and risk: management of the latter, not the former with P. Varangis and J. Anderson. In Resource Management in Asia Pacific Developing Countries, R. Garnaut (ed.), Asia Pacific Press, 2002.

• Market liberalization: lessons from country and commodity experiences, with T. Akiyama, P. Varangis and J. Baffes. In Commodity Market Reforms: Lessons of Two Decades . T. Akiyama, J. Baffes, D. Larson and P. Varangis (eds.), Washington: World Bank, 2001.

• Sugar policy and reform, with B. Borrell. In Commodity Market Reforms: Lessons of Two Decades . T. Akiyama, J. Baffes, D. Larson and P. Varangis (eds.), Washington: World Bank, 2001.

• Crop markets in Uganda and household participation, with K. Deininger. In Uganda’s Recovery: The Role of, Farms, Firms and Government. Paul Collier and Ritva Reinikka (eds.), Washington: World Bank, 2001.

• Alternative food security instruments: the warehouse receipts system. In Indonesia: Essays on Agricultural Institutions and Policy . P. Sawicki (ed.), Washington: World Bank, 1999.

• How warehouse receipts help commodity trading and finance, with P. Varangis. In New Strategies for a Changing Commodity Economy: the Use of Modern Financial Instruments . Lamon Rutten (ed.) Geneva: UNCTAD, 1998.

• Commodity price volatility and economic policy (with P. Varangis). In New Strategies for a Changing Commodity Economy: the Use of Modern Financial Instruments . L. Rutten (ed.), Geneva: UNCTAD, 1998.

• Agricultural development: issues, evidence and consequences, with Y. Mundlak and Al Crego. In Contemporary Economic Issues: Labour, Food and Poverty Vol. 2 . Y. Mundlak (ed.), St. Martin Press. 1998.

• The effects of option hedging on the costs of domestic price stabilization schemes, with Jonathan Coleman. In Commodity Risk Management and Finance, Volume 2. R. Duncan and S. Claessens (eds.), New York: Oxford University Press, 1994.

• Tariff-based commodity price stabilization schemes in Venezuela, with Jonathan Coleman. In Commodity Risk Management and Finance, Volume 2. R. Duncan and S. Claessens (eds.), New York: Oxford University Press, 1994.

• Abolishing green rates: the effects on cereals, sugar, and oilseeds, with S. Glance, B. Borrell, M. Ingco and J. Coleman. In EC 1992: Implications for World Food and Agricultural Trade . D. Kelch (ed.), Washington: USDA, 1991.

Working papers

• On the central role of small farms in African rural development strategies, with Rie Muraoka and Keijiro Otsuka, Policy Research Working Paper 7710, Washington: World Bank, 2016

• Long-term impacts of an unanticipated risk event: The 2007/08 food price crisis and child growth in Indonesia, with Futoshi Yamauchi, Policy Research Working Paper 7627, Washington: World Bank, 2016

• Are women less productive farmers? How markets and risk affect fertilizer use, productivity and measured gender effects in Uganda, with Sara Savastano, Siobhan Murray, and Amparo Palacios-Lopez, Policy Research Working Paper 7241, Washington: World Bank, 2015.

• Agricultural policies and trade paths in Turkey, with Will Martin, Sebnem Sahin, and Marinos E. Tsigas, Policy Research Working Paper 7059, Washington World Bank, 2014.

• A conceptual model of incomplete markets and the consequences for technology adoption policies in Ethiopia, with Daniel Zerfu Gurara, Policy Research Working Paper 6681, Washington: World Bank, 2013.

• Differential effects of food security policies on subsistence farmers and the urban poor, with Mario Miranda, Kathleen Farrin and Shu-Ling Chen, 2013 Annual Meetings, August 4-6, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, 2013.

• Blue water and the consequences of alternative food security policies in the Middle East and North Africa for water security, Policy Research Working Paper 6464, Washington: World Bank, 2013.

• Should African rural development strategies depend on smallholder farms? An exploration of the inverse productivity hypothesis , with Keijiro Otsuka, Tomoya Matsumoto and Talip Kilic, Policy Research Working Paper 6190, Washington: World Bank, 2013.

• Aligning climate change mitigation and agricultural policies in Eastern Europe and Central Asia , with Ariel Dinar and Brian Blankespoor, Policy Research Working Paper 6080, Washington: World Bank, 2012.

• Food security and storage in the Middle East and North Africa, with Julian Lampietti, Christophe Gouel, Carlo Cafiero, and John Roberts. Policy Research Working Paper 6031, Washington: World Bank, 2012.

• Agriculture and the Clean Development Mechanism , with Ariel Dinar and J. Aapris Frisbie, Policy Research Working Paper 5621, Washington: World Bank, 2011.

• The grain chain: food security and managing wheat imports in Arab countries , with Julian Lampietti, Michelle Battat, Dana Erekat, Arnold De Hartog and Sean Michaels, World Bank Operational Studies 10425, Washington: World Bank, 2011.

• Can Africa replicate Asia's Green Revolution in rice? with Keijiro Otsuka, Kei Kajisa, Jonna P. Estudillo and Aliou Diagne, Policy Research Working Paper 5478, Washington: World Bank. 2011

• Measures of fixed capital in agriculture , with Rita Butzer, and Yair Mundlak, Policy Research Working Paper 5472, Washington: World Bank, 2010.

• Resource management and the effects of trade on vulnerable places and people: lessons from six case studies , with John Nash, Policy Research Working Paper 5258, Washington: World Bank, 2010.

• Incomplete markets and fertilizer use: evidence from Ethiopia, with Daniel Zerfu Gurara, Policy Research Working Paper 5235, Washington: World Bank, 2010.

• The performance of Bulgarian food markets during reform , with Alexander H. Sarris, Policy Research Working Paper 4876, Washington: World Bank, 2009.

• Heterogeneous technology and panel data: the case of the agricultural production function , with Yair Mundlak and Rita Butzer, Policy Research Working Paper 4536, Washington: World Bank, 2008.

• The environment as a factor of production , with Timothy J. Considines, Policy Research Working Paper 3271, Washington: World Bank, 2004.

• Warehouse receipts: facilitating credit and commodity markets , with Daniele Giovannucci and Panos Varangis, A Guide to Developing Agricultural Markets and Agro-enterprises, 2007.

• Commodity market reform in Africa: some recent experience , with John Baffes, Panos Varangis and Takamasa Akiyama, Policy Research Working Paper 2995, Washington: World Bank, 2003.

• Intersectoral migration in Southeast Asia: evidence from Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines , with Rita Butzer and Yair Mundlak, Policy Research Working Paper 2949, Washington: World Bank, 2003.

• Can financial markets be tapped to help poor people cope with weather risks ?, with Jerry R. Skees, Panos Varangis and Paul B. Siegel, Policy Research Working Paper 2812, Washington: World Bank, 2002.

• Determinants of agricultural growth in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand, with Rita Butzer and Yair Mundlak, Policy Research Working Paper 2803, Washington: World Bank, 2002.

• Agricultural markets and risks - management of the latter, not the former , with Panos Varangis and Jock R. Anderson, Policy Research Working Paper 2793, Washington: World Bank, 2001

• Do farmers choose to be inefficient? with Frank Plessmann, Policy Research Working Paper 2787, Washington: World Bank, 2002.

• Sugar policy and reform , with Brent Borrell, Policy Research Working Paper 2602, Washington: World Bank, 2001.

• A new database on investment and capital for agriculture and manufacturing , with Al Crego, Rita Butzer and Yair Mundlak, Policy Research Working Paper 2013, Washington: World Bank, 1998.

• Commodity risk management and development, with Panos Varangis and Yabuki Nanae, Policy Research Working Paper 1963, Washington: World Bank, 1998.

• The determinants of agricultural production: a cross-country analysis, with Yair Mundlak and Rita Butzer, Policy Research Working Paper 1827, Washington: World Bank, 1997.

• Agricultural development: issues, evidence, and consequences , with Yair Mundlak and Al Crego, Policy Research Working Paper 1811, Washington: World Bank, 1997.

• Dealing with commodity price uncertainty , with Panos Varangis, Policy Research Working Paper 1667, Washington: World Bank, 1996.

• Uncertainty and the price for crude oil reserves , with Timonth J. Considine, Policy Research Working Paper 1655, Washington: World Bank, 1996.

• Indonesia's palm oil subsector , Policy Research Working Paper 1654, Washington: World Bank, 1996.

• On the intersectoral migration of agricultural labor , with Yair Mundlak, Policy Research Working Paper 1425, Washington: World Bank, 1995.

• The adding-up problem: strategies for primary commodity exports in Sub-Saharan Africa , with Takamasa Akiyama, Policy Research Working Paper 1245, Washington: World Bank, 1994.

• Copper and the negative price of storage , Policy Research Working Paper Series 1282, Washington: World Bank, 1994.

• Policies for coping with price uncertainty for Mexican maize , Policy Research Working Paper Series 1120, 1993.

• The effects of option hedging on the costs of domestic price stabilization schemes , with Jonathan Coleman, Policy Research Working Paper Series 653, Washington: World Bank, 1991.

• Tariff-based commodity price stabilization schemes in Venezuela , with Jonathan Coleman Policy Research Working Paper Series 611, Washington: World Bank, 1991.

• Abolishing green rates: the effects on cereals, sugar, and oilseeds in West Germany , with Simon Glance, Brent Borrell, Merlinda Ingco and Jonathan Coleman, Policy Research Working Paper Series 607, Washington: World Bank, 1991.

• On the relevance of world agricultural prices , with Yair Mundlak, Policy Research Working Paper Series 383, Washington: World Bank, 1990.

• The Indonesian vegetable oils sector : modeling the impact of policy changes , Policy Research Working Paper Series 382, Washington: World Bank, 1990.

• Recent trends and prospects for agricultural commodity exports in sub-Saharan Africa , with Takamasa Akiyama, Policy Research Working Paper Series 348, Washington: World Bank, 1989.