Publications
"The Effect of Group Diversity on Team and Student Performance" with Beverly Mendoza. (Accepted). Global Journal of Business Pedagogy.
Group work and collaborative activities improve social skills, such as communication and leadership, which are sought after in the workplace. Our paper explores the effects of teamwork on student performance in an undergraduate applied statistics course. Particularly, we examine the compositional effects of a group on both team and individual student performance. We find that groups with more females generally perform better, while individual students benefit more from working with a racially-diverse group. In addition, assuming that peer evaluations can accurately measure social skills, we posit that students who are better team players receive higher course grades. Our findings support research on the complementarity between social and cognitive skills where more socially-skilled students benefit more under a collaborative environment.
"Regulating CO2 Emissions Post-West Virginia v. EPA" with Justin Blount. 2024. William & Mary Environmental Law and Policy Review.
In West Virginia v. Environmental Protection Agency, the Supreme Court expressly adopted the major questions doctrine and used it to invalidate the Clean Power Plan, a rule intended to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from power plants. This opinion has been controversial and has left many commentators concerned that it may hamper the ability of administrative agencies to aggressively and flexibly regulate.
This Article analyzes this opinion and the impact it may have on ongoing efforts to regulate carbon dioxide emissions at the federal level. It then examines economic theory underpinning environmental regulation, developing technologies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, and how they can be applied under the Clean Air Act. While the major questions doctrine may limit the Environmental Protection Agency’s regulatory flexibility, we argue that existing technological options do exist that allow for aggressive federal carbon dioxide emissions guidelines within the limits of the Supreme Court’s ruling in West Virginia v. Environmental Protection Agency.
"The Impact of using Real-World Data Analysis in Applied Business Statistics Courses" with Beverly Mendoza. 2023. Global Journal of Business Pedagogy.
An increasing number of employers are seeking college graduates with data analysis skills. However, research suggests that students have an aversion to statistics courses and avoid utilizing statistical tools in the workplace. Project-Based Learning has been proven to increase student engagement and achievement, particularly in courses with a heavy mathematical component. To bridge the gap between employer wants and student sentiment related to statistics, instructors of applied business statistics at a regional comprehensive public university implemented a group project that utilized real-word data to answer a research question. This paper examines if and through what channels this group project impacted student performance and knowledge using multiple linear regression models. Results indicate that inclusion of the group project is associated with higher final grades but lower average exam scores, while controlling for student ability using student cumulative grade point average as a proxy. Focusing on the students that completed the project, a higher project grade corresponds to both improved final grades and average exam scores, implying that the project solidifies learning of course concepts.
"Coal-Fired Power Plant Retirements in the United States" with J. Scott Holladay and Charles Sims. 2022. Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy.
We summarize the history of US coal-fired plant retirements over the past decade, describe planned future retirements, and forecast the remaining operating life for every operating coal-fired generator at each plant. Nearly one-third of the coal fleet retired during the 2010s and a quarter of the remaining capacity has announced plans to retire. We summarize the technology and location trends that are correlated with the observed retirements. We then describe a theoretical model of the retirement decision coal generator owners face. We use retirements from the past decade to quantify the relationships in the model for retired generators. Our model predicts that three-quarters of coal generation capacity will retire in the next 20 years, with most of that retirement concentrated in the next 5 years. Policy has limited ability to affect retirement times. A $20 per megawatt-hour electricity subsidy extends the average life of a generator by 6 years. A $51 per ton carbon tax brings forward retirement dates by about 2 years. In all scenarios, a handful of electricity generators remain on the grid beyond our forecast horizon.
"Frack to the future: What enticed small firms to enter the natural gas market during the hydraulic fracturing boom?" with Charles Sims. 2019. Energy Economics.
The shale gas boom of the early 2000s saw the highest and most volatile natural gas prices and production in history. Advances in horizontal drilling, 3-D seismic imaging, and hydraulic fracturing made it highly profitable for firms to produce large quantities of shale gas. This period was also characterized by a shift in market structure. The U.S. natural gas market was historically defined by large firms, but a large number of small firms began entering the market after 2000. While small firms made a negligible contribution to natural gas production during the shale gas boom, their entry may signal overcapitalization, productivity growth, and increased responsiveness of natural gas markets to exogenous shocks. We develop a real options model of market entry and exit and use data on natural gas drilling activity to test three potential explanations for small firm entry during the boom: 1. technological advances, 2. land lease speculation, and 3. regime change in natural gas prices. Our analysis provides mixed support for the first explanation but strong support for the last two.
Working Papers
"Drivers of Coal Generator Retirements and their Impact on the Shifting Electricity Generation Portfolio in the U.S." with Charles Sims and J. Scott Holladay.
We investigate the drivers of coal generator retirement using data on coal generator turnover, delivered coal prices, and wholesale electricity prices. To do this we identify the impact of sunk retirement costs on the probability of coal generator retirement. By pairing an optimal stopping model of firms' generator retirement decisions with the retirement timing of almost 200 coal-fired generators across the U.S., we estimate retirement costs that are not typically disclosed by firms and are not publicly available. Because our real options model cannot impute the retirement costs for coal generators that have not retired, we use a machine learning algorithm to impute retirement cost amounts for active coal generators. With this data, we used a parametric approach to estimate the impact of retirement costs on the probability of retirement and found that a one standard deviation increase in retirement costs resulted in a 0.2 percent reduction in the probability of retirement. We use the real-options model to predict the retirement date for every active coal generator in the U.S. We conduct two counterfactual analyses, modelling a carbon tax of $40 and a fuel cost subsidy. We find that a carbon tax brings forward the average retirement age by more than six years and that a fuel cost subsidy would have to cover more than half the cost of delivered fuel to extend the average life of a coal generator by 5 years.
"Abate or Exit? The Impact of Mercury Regulation on Coal Generator Retirements" (submitted)
Between 2001 and 2019, coal-fired electricity generation fell by more than half due to generator retirements and reduced usage of remaining generators. Concurrently, technological advancements made previously unrecoverable shale gas reserves economically viable, thus causing downward pressure on natural gas prices. This made them competitive to coal-fired generators that were aging and becoming less efficient. Moreover, states and the federal government began regulating mercury emissions from the electric power sector, since such pollution harms human health. Little is known about how environmental regulation affects firm exit decisions, or in this case, coal generator retirements. Employing a difference-in-differences identification strategy in a fixed effects model, I find that the federal Mercury and Air Toxics Standards had a significant impact on coal-fired generator retirement. Further, generator-level abatement investments, power plant efficiency, and state-level natural gas capacity growth also help to account for the impressive departure of coal-fired generators from the grid.
"The Role of Natural Gas and Climate Policy in Coal Plant Retirements" with Charles Sims.
We investigate the role the threat of a carbon tax had on electricity generator switches from using coal as fuel to natural gas as fuel. The switch requires a significant and expensive investment, essentially removing the coal generator and replacing it with a natural gas generator. Others have asked a similar question, but there are no papers that consider the risk and uncertainty associated with such an investment.
Works in Progress
"Entry Delay in Export Markets" with Beverly Mendoza
"Land Speculation and the Shale Gas Boom: The Option Value of Drilling Rights" with data from DrillingInfo.
"The Effects of Confirmation Bias and Subgroup Bias in Hiring Decisions" with Jing Li, Matthew McMahon, and Nathan Murray.
White Papers, Reports, and Trade Publications
2024 "Economic Impact Assessment of SFA JacksTeach STEM PBIC Pathway with Mikhail Kouliavtsev and Ryan Knights. Stephen F. Austin State University Center for Business & Economic Research.
2023 "Economic Impact Analysis of SFA's School of Art and Cole Art Center Events and Activities" with Mikhail Kouliavtsev and Ryan Knights. Stephen F. Austin State University Center for Business & Economic Research.
2022 "Economic Impact of the Purchasing From People With Disabilities Program on Texas" with Mikhail Kouliavtsev and Mark Scanlan. Stephen F. Austin State University Center for Business & Economic Research.
2017 "The Economic Impacts and Risks Associated with Electric Power Generation in Appalachia" with Eric Bowen, Christiadi, John Deskins, and Charles Sims. Commissioned by the Appalachian Regional Commission.
2017 "How Much Should Hybrids and Electric Vehicles Contribute to Roadway Funding?" with Matthew N. Murray and Jilleah G. Welch. Howard H. Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy: Policy Brief 1:17.
2016 "Energy Intensity and Electricity Consumption" with J. Scott Holladay. Howard H. Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy: Policy Brief 2:16.
2015 "Economic Potential of South Knoxville's Urban Wilderness" with Charles Sims and Bongkyun Kim. Howard H. Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy: White Paper 2:15.
2015 "Tennessee Advanced Energy Economic Impact Report" with Matthew N. Murray and the Tennessee Advanced Energy Business Council. Tennessee Advanced Energy Business Council.
2015 "Coal Mining and Tourism: Engines of Economic Development for Campbell County and Claiborne County, Tennessee" with Matthew N. Murray, Charles Sims, and Bongkyun Kim. Howard H. Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy: Project Report 4:14.
2014 "Economic Impacts on Tennessee Arising from Construction of the Uranium Processing Facility" with Matthew N. Murray. Howard H. Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy: Project Report 3:14.
2014 "Energy Data Collection and Performance Calculation Project" with Jean H. Peretz, Catherine Wilt, and Matthew N. Murray. Howard H. Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy Report 1:14.