o "An Anatomy of the Great Reallocation in US Supply Chain Trade". March 2026 version.
Forthcoming, IMF Economic Review.
With Laura Alfaro. NBER Working Paper No. 34490.
Paper prepared for the 26th IMF Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference.
o "Illuminating the Effects of the US-China Tariff War on China's Economy".
Journal of International Economics, July 2024, 150: 103926.
With Bingjing Li.
Also: NBER Working Paper No. 29349. The Economist. The Wall Street Journal.
[Online Appendix] [Data and Program Files]
o "Did Trump's Trade War Impact the 2018 Election?"
Journal of International Economics, March 2024, 148: 103891.
With Emily J. Blanchard and Chad P. Bown.
Also: NBER Working Paper No. 26434.
[Online Appendix] [Data and Program Files]
o "Global Production Networks: The Looming "Great Reallocation"". August 2023.
In Structural Shifts in the Global Economy, Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, pp.213-278.
With Laura Alfaro. Also: NBER Working Paper No. 31661.
[Data and Program Files] [Slides]
o "The Political Economy Consequences of China's Export Slowdown".
Journal of the European Economic Association, October 2023, 21(5): 1721-1771.
With Filipe R. Campante and Bingjing Li.
Also: NBER Working Paper No. 25925. ProMarket. U.S. News and World Report. MarketWatch. Tuck Knowledge in Practice.
[Online Appendix] [Data and Program Files] [Slides]
o "Global Value Chains".
In the Handbook of International Economics, Vol. 5, 2022. Eds: Gita Gopinath, Elhanan Helpman, and Kenneth Rogoff. Elsevier.
Chapter 5, pp.297-376.
With Pol Antràs. Long version: NBER Working Paper No. 28549.
[Appendix]
o "Growing Like China: Firm Performance and Global Production Line Position".
Journal of International Economics, May 2021, 130: 103445. NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics issue.
With Kalina Manova and Zhihong Yu. Also: NBER Working Paper No. 27795.
[Online Appendix] [Data and Program Files]
o "Modelling Global Value Chains: Approaches and Insights from Economics".
In the Handbook of Global Value Chains, 2019. Eds: Stefano Ponte, Gary Gereffi, and Gale Raj-Reichert. Edward Elgar.
Chapter 5, pp.105-119.
o "Host-Country Financial Development and Multinational Activity".
European Economic Review, June 2019, 115: 192-220.
With L. Kamran Bilir and Kalina Manova. Also: NBER Working Paper No. 20046. Vox EU.
[Appendix]
o "Internalizing Global Value Chains: A Firm-Level Analysis".
Journal of Political Economy, April 2019, 127(2): 508-559.
With Laura Alfaro, Pol Antràs, and Paola Conconi. Also: NBER Working Paper No. 21582. Vox EU.
[Appendix] [Data and Program Files]
o "On the Measurement of Upstreamness and Downstreamness in Global Value Chains".
In World Trade Evolution: Growth, Productivity and Evolution, 2018. Eds: Lili Yan Ing and Miaojie Yu. Routledge.
With Pol Antràs. Also: NBER Working Paper No. 24185.
[Data and Program Files] [Slides]
o ""The People Want the Fall of the Regime": Schooling, Political Protest, and the Economy".
Journal of Comparative Economics, August 2014, 42(3): 495-517.
With Filipe R. Campante.
[Online Appendix] [Data and Program Files]
o "Organizing the Global Value Chain".
Econometrica, November 2013, 81(6): 2127-2204.
With Pol Antràs. Also: NBER Working Paper No. 18163.
[Online Appendix] [Data and Program Files] [Slides]
o "Schooling, Political Participation, and the Economy".
Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2012, 94(4): 841-859.
With Filipe R. Campante.
[Supplementary Appendix] [Data and Programs]
Previously circulated as: "Schooling and Political Participation in a Neoclassical Framework: Theory and Evidence".
o "Measuring the Upstreamness of Production and Trade Flows".
American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 2012, 102(3): 412-416.
With Pol Antràs, Thibault Fally, and Russell Hillberry. Longer version: NBER Working Paper No. 17819.
o "Why was the Arab World Poised for Revolution? Schooling, Economic Opportunities, and the Arab Spring".
Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 2012, 26(2): 167-188.
With Filipe R. Campante. Also: The World Financial Review. Vox EU. International Herald Tribune.
[Supplementary Appendix] [Data and Programs]
o "Off the Cliff and Back? Credit Conditions and International Trade during the Global Financial Crisis".
Journal of International Economics, May 2012, 87(1): 117-133.
Special issue symposium on the Global Dimensions of the Financial Crisis.
With Kalina Manova. Also: NBER Working Paper No. 16174. NBER Digest. Vox EU.
o "Unpacking Sources of Comparative Advantage: A Quantitative Approach".
Journal of International Economics, November 2010, 82(2): 152-167.
[Supplementary Appendix] Also, please see: [Short Corrigendum]
o "Subsidies for FDI: Implications from a Model with Heterogeneous Firms".
Journal of International Economics, June 2009, 78(1): 113-125.
o "Instability and the Incentives for Corruption".
Economics and Politics, March 2009, 21(1): 42-92.
With Filipe R. Campante and Quoc-Anh Do.
[Supplementary Appendix] [Data on Average Incumbent Tenure]
o "Institutions, Wages and Inequality -- The Case of Europe and its Periphery (1500-1899)".
Explorations in Economic History, October 2005, 42(4): 547-566.
Also: Harvard CID Graduate Student Working Paper Series No. 1.