The Council on Foreign Relations
27 February 2009
The Council of Foreign Relations in Washington hosted a panel session 27 February 2009 on the subject “The Future of U.S.-Ethiopia Relations.” Ambassador Herman Cohen, Professional Lecturer at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies chaired the session. Panelists were Dr. Ephraim Isaac, Chair, Board of the Coalition of Ethiopian Elders for Peace and Reconciliation; Dr. Brook Beshah, Assistant Professional Lecturer in International Affairs at George Washington University; and David Shinn.
I explained that a number of issues confront U.S. policy towards Ethiopia that will continue to challenge U.S.-Ethiopian relations. Several persistent human rights matters have troubled the relationship since the beginning of the current Ethiopian government or EPRDF. These include the periodic arrest of large numbers of individuals, particularly Oromo who are perceived, rightly or wrongly, to have ties to the Oromo Liberation Front, which calls for the overthrow of the government. Although many of them are eventually released, new groups of political dissidents are routinely arrested. The most visible recent case concerns the leader, Birtukan Mideksa, of a new political party. The EPRDF also engages periodically in the harassment of the private press. Civil society organizations have reacted negatively to the new act covering charities and non-governmental organizations that places severe restrictions on their ability to conduct advocacy work.
Democratization in Ethiopia experienced a major setback following the 2005 national elections. Although the election process began well, it ended badly. The political opposition must take some responsibility for the violence that followed the election, but ultimately the government is responsible for preventing violence and maintaining faith in the electoral system. The 2008 local elections were an opportunity to put the democratization process back on track. They did not achieve this goal. The EPRDF won all but a handful of the 3.6 million positions. Effectively, there was no real competition. The next national elections occur in 2010 and the outlook for serious competition is not good.
The EPRDF actually gets good marks for most of its economic policy. But since the focus of this presentation is on challenges facing U.S.-Ethiopian relations, it is important to cite two areas of concern. The EPRDF is still not ready to allow international banking in Ethiopia. In view of the mess that most international banks are in today, one might argue that Ethiopia was smart to keep them out. Nevertheless, the international banks will eventually clean up their problems and, to the extent that Ethiopia continues to keep them out, will only hold back its own economic progress. The other area concerns government control of communications. Ethiopia will not have an efficient telecommunications operation so long as it keeps it under government control.
As the United States deals with these concerns about internal Ethiopian policies, it must also consider those areas where Ethiopia has been helpful to U.S. policy in the region. Traditionally, these regional issues have been more important to the United States than concerns over internal matters. There is no reason to believe this situation will change significantly in the Obama Administration, although there will be differences on the margins, probably including greater U.S. attention to human rights issues.
Ethiopia has been a strong supporter of U.S. counterterrorism policy in the region. Counterterrorism will remain a priority of the Obama Administration, although it may emphasize different tactics. At the urging of the United States and others, Ethiopia has long been helpful on matters of regional stability and peacekeeping operations. The United States will continue to look to Ethiopia for this support. Although in my view both the United States and Ethiopia followed a misguided policy in Somalia, they did it together. Ethiopia has been helpful in Sudan on both the crisis in Darfur and the Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended the war between northern and southern Sudan. It has also contributed positively to peacekeeping efforts further beyond the Horn of Africa.
Djibouti is an ally of both Ethiopia and the United States. In view of Eritrea’s threat against Djibouti, where the United States has its only military base in Africa, the United States and Ethiopia will likely pursue a common policy. The United States may take a new look at its policy generally towards Eritrea, which has gone out of its way in recent years to take actions hostile to Ethiopia and vice versa. If there is a new look in Washington at relations with Eritrea, it will result in some angst in Addis Ababa. Nevertheless, it is probably worth exploring just to determine if it is possible to encourage Eritrea to become a more constructive force in the region. Fortunately, the Bush Administration did not, in spite of efforts by some, put Eritrea on the list of state sponsors of terrorism. This would have made impossible any U.S. attempt to revisit in the foreseeable future relations with Eritrea.