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This webpage provides updated estimates and supplementary material associated with the paper "Real-Time Weakness of the Global Economy" by Danilo Leiva-Leon, Gabriel Perez-Quiros and Eyno Rots.
Updated Estimates
Updated Estimates
Global Weakness Index
Note. The Global Weakness Index (GWI) measures the share of the world economy facing a recession at a given month. The GWI is based on the paper "Real-Time Weakness of the Global Economy" (Leiva-León, Pérez-Quirós and Rots (2021)). The solid line (band) indicates the median (16th and 84th percentiles) of the posterior density estimates. The last observation corresponds to October 2021.
Global Intensity Index
Note. The Global Intensity Index (GII) indicates how deep (buoyant) an unfolding global recession (expansion) can get, in a timely fashion. The GII is expressed in standardized units. The GII is based on the paper "Real-Time Weakness of the Global Economy" (Leiva-León, Pérez-Quirós and Rots (2021)). The solid line (band) indicates the median (16th and 84th percentiles) of the posterior density estimates. The last observation corresponds to October 2021.
Probability of Recession Around the World
Note. The figure shows the probabilities of recession across different regions of the world corresponding to October 2021. Green (red) areas indicate low (high) probability. The probabilities are based on the paper "Real-Time Weakness of the Global Economy" (Leiva-León, Pérez-Quirós and Rots (2021)).
Historical Probability of Recession Around the World
Historical Probability of Recession Around the World
GWI_Leiva-Leon_et_al_2021.mp4Note. The video shows the evolution of the probabilities of recession across different regions of the world and over time. Green (red) areas indicate low (high) probability.
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