Daniela Viana Costa
Peer reviewed publications
Structural Transformation and Labor Productivity in Brazil, with Marcos Marcolino.
Brazilian Review of Economics (RBE), vol. 75, 4, 2021.
Macroeconomic Effects of Medicare, with Juan Carlos Conesa, Parisa Kamali, Timothy Kehoe, Vegard Nygaard, Gajen Raveendranathan, and Akshar Saxena.
The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, vol. 11, 2018.
Working Papers
Immigration and the Macroeconomy, with Efraim Berkovich and Austin Herrick.
Penn Wharton Budget Model, PWBM Working Paper Series, Working Paper, 2022-01, 2022.
North-North Migration and Agglomeration in the European Union 15, with Maria Jose Rodriguez.
Banco de Mexico, Working Papers, No 2020-07, 2020.
Policy Work
COVID-19 Learning Loss: Long-run Macroeconomic Effects Update, with Efraim Berkovich, Maddison Erbabian, and Youran Wu. October 27, 2021.
Cited at the opening statement of the Joint Committee Hearing on "Building on a Strong Foundation: Investments Today for a More Competitive Tomorrow," held before the U.S. Congress on April 27, 2022.
Economic Effects from Preschool and Childcare Programs, with Efraim Berkovich, Maddison Erbabian, and Youran Wu. August 23, 2021.
Media coverage: REUTERS
Cited by UNICEF on "Add Today Multiply Tomorrow: Building an Investment Case for Early Childhood Education."
Effects of President Biden’s Unauthorized Immigrant Legalization Proposal on SNAP and Payroll Tax, with Efraim Berkovich. July 2, 2021.
COVID-19 School Closures: Long-run Macroeconomic Effects, with Efraim Berkovich, Maddison Erbabian, and Youran Wu. May 17, 2021.
Media coverage: The74
Demographic and Economic Effects of President’s Biden Proposal to Legalize Immigrants, with Austin Herrick. March 31, 2021.
Direct Aid in the Biden COVID Relief Plan: Budgetary and Distributional Effects, with Alex Arnon, Efraim Berkovich, Zheli He, Austin Herrick, Jon Huntley, Marcos Dinerstein, Victoria Osorio, Richard Prisinzano, and John Ricco. February 3, 2021.
Macroeconomic Effects of the $1.9 Trillion Biden COVID Relief Plan, with Alex Arnon, Efraim Berkovich, Zheli He, Austin Herrick, Jon Huntley, Marcos Dinerstein, Victoria Osorio, Richard Prisinzano, and John Ricco. February 3, 2021.
PWBM Budget Contest: TEACHUP Early Childhood Education Grants, with Victoria Osorio and Austin Herrick. January 19, 2021.
Macroeconomic Effects of Biden’s Immigration Policy, with Efraim Berkovich and Austin Herrick. September 24, 2020.
PWBM Analysis of the Biden Platform, with Alex Arnon, Efraim Berkovich, Marcos Dinerstein, Maddison Erbabian, Jagadeesh Gokhale, Yan He, Zheli He, Austin Herrick, Jon Huntley, Victoria Osorio, Richard Prisinzano, Minh Quach, Felix Reichling, John Ricco, Sophie Shin, Kent Smetters, Xiaoyue Sun, and Youran Wu. September 14, 2020.
Effects of the Closure Rule in PWBM’s Dynamic OLG Model. May 2019.
The Stages of Growth Revisited, Part 1: A General Framework and Taking Off into Growth, with Timothy Kehoe and Gajen Raveendranathan.
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Economic Policy Paper, 16-5, 2016.
The Stages of Growth Revisited, Part 2: Catching Up to and Joining the Economic Leader, with Timothy Kehoe and Gajen Raveendranathan.
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Economic Policy Paper, 16-6, 2016.
Work in Progress
From Primary Commodities to Output Fluctuations.
Abstract: Primary commodity exporter countries face large terms of trade fluctuations, largely driven by primary commodity price shocks and amplified by the relative importance of primary commodities in the countries' exports. An increase in the price of a primary commodity is usually followed by a decrease in terms of trade, defined as the relative price of imports over exports, and an increase in real GDP in these countries. Meanwhile, countries that do not export primary commodities enjoy more stable terms of trade, and their real GDP is positively correlated with terms of trade. Although the literature on primary commodity exporters has focused on developing countries, I show that this relation is independent of a country's income level. Since standard models are unable to generate real aggregate fluctuations from price shocks if real GDP is correctly measured, this paper identifies a puzzle. Finally, it proposes a class of mechanisms that is capable of explaining the heterogeneous impact of terms of trade fluctuations across countries. I show that a possible resolution is to incorporate the presence of idle resources and a production cost externality in the primary commodity producing sector in order to connect terms of trade fluctuations to real GDP fluctuations. When subjected to a primary commodity price shock, the model successfully accounts for the behavior of terms of trade and its relation to real GDP for different export compositions.
Presented at: the 16th Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET) Conference in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (2016); the 11th Annual Meeting of the Portuguese Economic Journal (2017); and the Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA) Workshop for Commodities and Macroeconomics (2018).
Previous title: Export Composition, Terms of Trade, and GDP Fluctuations.