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My work at the Bank of Canada supports both internal monetary policy analysis and decision-making, and external engagement — for example, contributing to the structural macroeconomic models used in the Bank's policy analysis, developing risk scenarios built around the base-case projection, contributing to the Bank's monetary policy framework renewals, or preparing briefing and intervention notes that inform the Bank's positions and officials' remarks at (international) meetings and speeches. Most of this isn't published externally.
Selected Recent Policy Contributions
Selected Recent Policy Contributions
Deglobalization and Trade Fragmentation: Implications for the Inflation-Output Trade-Off
with Matteo Cacciatore, and Yuko Imura
Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Paper 2026-24
Contributed to the Bank's 2026 renewal of Canada's monetary policy framework — a joint review with the Government of Canada conducted every five years.
The trade-off between inflation and output losses, as implied by a two-country, multi-sector model calibrated to the Canada-U.S. trade, following a permanent rise in trade costs. Separate curves show three scenarios: a bilateral tariff war, tariffs imposed by Canada alone, and tariffs imposed by the US alone. Each point along a curve reflects a different policy choice, from prioritizing inflation stabilization to prioritizing output; black diamonds mark the optimal policy.
Speech by Tiff Macklem, Governor, Bank of Canada — Calgary Economic Development, March 20, 2025
Contributed to the preparation of this speech.
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