Publications and working papers

Journal publications (refereed)

• Idiosyncratic Risk, Aggregate Risk, and the Welfare Effects of Social Security (with A. Ludwig), International Economic Review, 60(2), 661--692, May 2019.

  1. • • Penultimate working paper version

       • Code

• Uncertainty Quantification and Global Sensitivity Analysis for Economic Models (with S. Marelli, B. Sudret, and V. Winschel), Quantitative Economics, 10(1), 1--41, 2019. Lead article.

• Social Security in an Analytically Tractable Overlapping Generations Model with Aggregate and Idiosyncratic Risk (with A. Ludwig), International Tax and Public Finance, 22(4), 579--603, August 2015.

Academic working papers

• Recursive Preferences, the Value of Life and Household Finance (with A. Bommier, F. Legrand and C. O'Dea), Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper CFDP 2231, May 2022. Revise & resubmit at Management Science.

• Recursive Preferences and the Value of Life: Theory and Application to Epidemics (with A. Bommier and F. Legrand), July 2021.

• Recursive Preferences and the Value of Life: A Clarification (with A. Bommier and F. Legrand), January 2021.

• Asset Pricing in OLG Economies With Borrowing Constraints and Idiosyncratic Income Risk, SAFE Working Paper No. 229, September 2018.

• The Effect of Macroeconomic News on Futures Trading (in German)

Policy papers and other publications

• Why an ageing population doesn’t mean soaring inflation, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, May 2022.

• Geopolitical shock of Ukraine war to have lasting impact, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, April 2022.

• Why global demographics are not inflationary, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, February 2022.

• Long-term forces to keep interest rates and inflation low, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, November 2021.

• Demographic shifts will impact global current accounts, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, October 2021.

• Rising wealth dampens UK and EZ interest rates, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, September 2021.

  • 1. • Coverage in Les Echos (French).

• Demographic forces will swell global financial imbalances, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, July 2021.

• Net foreign assets after the pandemic, Oxford Economics White Paper, July 2021.

• United States: A low neutral policy rate with a 1% handle, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, January 2021.

• Secular stagnation is real. Getting out of it will be hard, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, October 2020. 

  • 1. • Coverage in Börsen-Zeitung (German) and Delano (English).

• Secular Stagnation in the Eurozone, Oxford Economics White Paper, October 2020.

• ECB’s one-size-fits-all monetary policy is a problem, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, February 2020.

• Uncertainty’s impact on investment will only get worse, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, October 2019.

• Less than zero: Lagarde’s interest rate challenge, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, July 2019.

• Depressed by high uncertainty? Try our new indicator!, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, March 2019.

• The neglected fiscal costs of building ‘Fortress Europe’, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, October 2018.

• Why Germans can thank refugees for higher net wages, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, July 2018. 

  • 1. • Coverage on Bloomberg.

• Blame the Baby Boomers for Depressed Wage Growth, Economic Outlook, 42, 45--49, May 2018.

• Consumption, Savings, and Insurance with Incomplete Markets, Monograph, Mannheim, 2012.

• Web Service Providing -- Pricing Strategies for Application Service Providers (with S. Strahringer), in: Krivulin, N. (ed.), New Models of Business: Managerial Aspects and Enabling Technologies, Proceedings of the 2nd International Workshop, St. Petersburg, 2002: 8-21.