Publications and working papers
Journal publications (refereed)
Idiosyncratic Risk, Aggregate Risk, and the Welfare Effects of Social Security (with A. Ludwig), International Economic Review, 60(2), 661--692, May 2019.
Uncertainty Quantification and Global Sensitivity Analysis for Economic Models (with S. Marelli, B. Sudret, and V. Winschel), Quantitative Economics, 10(1), 1--41, 2019. Lead article.
Social Security in an Analytically Tractable Overlapping Generations Model with Aggregate and Idiosyncratic Risk (with A. Ludwig), International Tax and Public Finance, 22(4), 579--603, August 2015.
Academic working papers
Recursive Preferences, the Value of Life and Household Finance (with A. Bommier, F. Legrand and C. O'Dea), Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper CFDP 2231, May 2022. Revise & resubmit at Management Science.
Recursive Preferences and the Value of Life: Theory and Application to Epidemics (with A. Bommier and F. Legrand), July 2021.
Recursive Preferences and the Value of Life: A Clarification (with A. Bommier and F. Legrand), January 2021.
Asset Pricing in OLG Economies With Borrowing Constraints and Idiosyncratic Income Risk, SAFE Working Paper No. 229, September 2018.
The Effect of Macroeconomic News on Futures Trading (in German)
Policy papers and other publications
Why an ageing population doesn’t mean soaring inflation, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, May 2022.
Geopolitical shock of Ukraine war to have lasting impact, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, April 2022.
Why global demographics are not inflationary, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, February 2022.
Long-term forces to keep interest rates and inflation low, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, November 2021.
Demographic shifts will impact global current accounts, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, October 2021.
Rising wealth dampens UK and EZ interest rates, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, September 2021.
Coverage in Les Echos (French).
Demographic forces will swell global financial imbalances, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, July 2021.
Net foreign assets after the pandemic, Oxford Economics White Paper, July 2021.
United States: A low neutral policy rate with a 1% handle, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, January 2021.
Secular stagnation is real. Getting out of it will be hard, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, October 2020.
Coverage in Börsen-Zeitung (German) and Delano (English).
Secular Stagnation in the Eurozone, Oxford Economics White Paper, October 2020.
ECB’s one-size-fits-all monetary policy is a problem, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, February 2020.
Uncertainty’s impact on investment will only get worse, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, October 2019.
Less than zero: Lagarde’s interest rate challenge, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, July 2019.
Depressed by high uncertainty? Try our new indicator!, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, March 2019.
The neglected fiscal costs of building ‘Fortress Europe’, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, October 2018.
Why Germans can thank refugees for higher net wages, Oxford Economics Research Briefing, July 2018.
Coverage on Bloomberg.
Blame the Baby Boomers for Depressed Wage Growth, Economic Outlook, 42, 45--49, May 2018.
Consumption, Savings, and Insurance with Incomplete Markets, Monograph, Mannheim, 2012.
Web Service Providing -- Pricing Strategies for Application Service Providers (with S. Strahringer), in: Krivulin, N. (ed.), New Models of Business: Managerial Aspects and Enabling Technologies, Proceedings of the 2nd International Workshop, St. Petersburg, 2002: 8-21.