"Turning Points in Leadership: ship size in the Portuguese and Dutch merchant empires," Social Science History, 48, 2 (2024): 285-308
Abstract: This paper discusses the implications of organisational control on the race for technological leadership in merchant empires. I provide an illustrative framework in which poor organisations have reduced incentives to invest, which in turn stifle technology improvements making leaders lag behind new entrants. In the late sixteenth century, Portugal’s large ships carried more merchandise and were more fitting of the monarch’s grandiose preferences, but they also were more prone to disaster. The merchant controlled Dutch East India Company however, invested in smaller but more seaworthy vessels conducting more voyages at a much lower loss rate. The surviving historical evidence shows Portugal relying on large ships well into the seventeenth century suggesting her technological edge was gone by the time the Dutch strengthened their presence in the Indian Ocean.
“Merchant Empires,” in Handbook of Cliometrics, Volume II, edited by Claude Diebolt and Michael Haupert, Springer (2019): 761-783
The Age of Merchant Empires started with the implementation of the Cape Route in 1498 and ended in 1874 with the extinction of the English East India Company. Europeans engaged in the business pursued trade (therefore merchant) and maintained their overseas possessions by force (therefore empires), but population density and established state hierarchies in Asia prevented them from engaging in full-fledged colonialism from the outset. By settling trade outposts in port cities around the Indian Ocean and the Far East, Europeans acquired the necessary network for the supply of a continuous stream of spices, and other Asian goods, to be loaded on ships sailing to Europe. Maintaining an empire required a steady supply of Eastern products implying necessarily the availability of capital and the development of capable shipping technology. But the longevity of merchant empires also depended on a sophisticated administration of trade and personnel in Asia and the defense of trade interests. These multi-stranded enterprises were controlled by merchants and/or kings, to whom the prerogative of international trade belonged in early modern Europe. Organizational control had considerable implications on the way merchant empires were run as well as their long-term commercial success. The Asian territorial expansion that some merchant empires pursued reached colonial proportions even before the official start of colonialism in Asia when the administration of overseas territories was formally assumed by governments in Europe.
"Escaping Europe: Health and Human Capital of Holocaust Refugees," with Matthias Blum, European Review of Economic History 22, 1 (2018): 1-27
Abstract: The large-scale persecution of European Jews during the Second World War generated massive refugee movements. We study the last wave of Holocaust refugees with a newly compiled dataset of mostly Jewish passengers from several European countries traveling from Lisbon to New York between 1940 and 1942. We find that both refugee and non-refugee passengers were positively selected, but non-refugees were even more so, suggesting it was predominantly the European elite who escaped the Holocaust during this period. In spite of the unique circumstances of this historical setting, this episode of migration displays well-known selection features: both refugees and non-refugees are positively selected, and earlier passengers are more positively selected than later passengers, and economic barriers to migration apply.
"Careers and Wages in the Dutch East India Company," Cliometrica 8, 1 (2014): 27-48 (erratum, 141-143)
Abstract: Inter-continental trade brought a novel form of organizing business to early modern Europe: the multinational firm. Headquartered in Europe and operating in Asia, the success of the East India Companies depended largely on the management of overseas outposts and their corresponding labor force. Using a dataset of 115 individuals hired in Europe to work in Asia, I present the internal structure of the careers and wages of civil servants in the Dutch East India Company in the eighteenth century. There were stable career paths, fast tracks in promotions, and sizeable returns to tenure. Despite the three hundred year old evidence, the VOC conforms rather well with present personnel practices and theories of internal labor markets.
"Incentives in Merchant Empires: Portuguese and Dutch Labor Compensation," Cliometrica 7, 1 (2013): 1-13
Abstract: The Portuguese and Dutch merchant empires had a similar geographic distribution with outposts all around the Indian Ocean, which they controlled and manned. Both empires faced the same problem of monitoring their agents in remote corners of the world. Each, however, arrived at a different solution to the monitoring problem. I use a principal-agent model to link different monitoring options to the different organizational structures of the two empires. I further investigate the implications of the model with archival data on labor compensation for Portuguese and Dutch workers overseas.
"The Organization of Eastern Merchant Empires," Explorations in Economic History 48, 1 (2011): 116-135
Abstract: In the sixteenth century, European countries engaged in long-distance trade with the East. Despite sharing the same objectives and technology, Portugal opted for a crown monopoly, England, the Netherlands, and Sweden franchised trade to private merchants, whereas in Denmark and France, king and merchants shared control. The Financial condition of the crown appears to have been relevant for the monarch's decision. I provide an economic mechanism to illuminate the historical variation in terms of the differences in relative endowments of king and merchants within each country. I also explore the implications of control allocation using archival data on labor compensation and shipping technology. Differences in the long run performance of merchant empires suggest a major impact of organization.
"Priests and Postmen: historical origins of national identity" CAGE wp no. 496 (July 2020) Revised Oct. 2024
Abstract: The rise of the modern state in Western Europe, saw the emergence of national identities in the nineteenth century. This paper analyses the association between historical religious and state capacity in Portugal proxied by priests and postmen in 1875, and current measures of national identity proxied by voter turnout in democratic elections from 1975 to 2024. I find that places with a stronger historical presence of postmen vote more in any election, but they vote less in local elections relative to national elections. This result suggests a persistent association of historical state presence with national rather than local identity. Historical religious presence is also positively associated with voter turnout in any election but much in smaller magnitude. There is however no negative association with local elections: in contrast with historical state capacity, historical religious capacity seems connected with the local rather than the national unit.