Commentary in Media, Policy Writings, and Selected Keynote Talks

Recent Developments in Forecasting Energy Prices: Data, Models, and Risk Analysis, keynote at 24th Conference on Real-Time Data Analysis, Methods, and Applications, Deutsche Bundesbank, Eltville, 24 October 2025.

Recent Advances in Modeling Oil Market Dynamics, keynote at 31st International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance (CEF), University of Chile, Santiago, 8 July 2025.

Pandemic, War, Inflation: Oil Markets at a Crossroads?, panel discussion on "Structural Change in Energy Markets and Implications for Inflation" at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, Sintra, 27 June 2023. Slides and video (starts at 3:22).

Interview with Süddeutsche Zeitung (in German), 9 February 2023.

Pandemic, War, Recession: Drivers of Aluminum and Copper Prices (with F. Ohnsorge and G. Verduzco-Bustos), Special Focus, Commodity Markets Outlook, World Bank, October 2022.

Energy Price Shocks: Lessons from the Past and the Way Forward, World Bank Live, 16 September 2022.

Recent Developments in (Modeling) Energy Market Dynamics, keynote at workshop on "Energy and Climate: Macroeconomic Implications," BI Norwegian Business School, Oslo, 18 August 2022. 

Oil Prices and Inflation, ECB In Focus Webinar, 31 March 2022.

Die dressierte Unsicherheit (with O. Holtemöller), Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 25 October 2021.

Interview on New Economic Dashboard, 29 July 2021.

WirtschaftsWoche Interview on Developments in Oil Markets with Bert Losse (in German), 30 November 2020.

Coronomics Podcast on Oil Markets hosted by Rudi Bachmann and Christian Bayer (in German), 22 April 2020.

Webinar Panel on COVID-19 Pandemic Economic Effects, 13 April 2020.

Commentary on Oil in the Coronavirus Economy, 30 March 2020.

How Much the 2014-2016 Oil Price Decline Stimulated the U.S. Economy (with L. Kilian), VoxEU, 18 May 2017.

Expecting the Unexpected: Why the Oil Price Keeps Surprising Us (with L. Kilian), VoxEU, 8 February 2016.

What Does the Market Think? A General Approach to Inferring Market Expectations from Futures Prices (with L. Kilian), VoxEU, 19 November 2014.

The Art and Science of Forecasting the Real Price of Oil, Bank of Canada Review, Spring 2014, p. 21-31.

Do Food Prices Respond to Oil Price Shocks? (with L. Kilian), VoxEU, 30 November 2013.

Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting the Price of Oil? (with L. Kilian and X. Zhou), VoxEU, 24 September 2013.