Working Papers 

• "A Tale of Two Families: Marital Formation, Parental Human Capital Investment, and College Attainment"  2025. (Revise and Resubmit)

• "Health Insurance and Labor Supply among Older Adults," (with Sita Slavov and Fang Yang), work in progress.

• "Trade and War: A Global Input-Output Network Perspective," (with Hector Tzavellas), April 2025 

Abstract

We build a model linking the positions of two states in a global input-output production network with their bilateral probability of conflict. In our model, war may occur when bargaining states do not observe each other’s outside options. We show that bilateral network exposures of consumption to war disruptions determine optimal bargaining strategies, shaping probabilities of war. We further demonstrate that asymmetry in mutual network dependence can reveal information and reduce conflict odds. To test our theory, we combine the Correlates of War data and the World Input-Output Tables for 1965-2014. Logit regression results support our theoretical predictions.