"Estimating Euro Area Output Gap Dynamics: Evidence from the updated Area-Wide Model Database", with Mahmut S. İpek, 2025 (Revise and Resubmit European Economic Review)
[Working Paper] [Area-Wide Model Database (Updated, April 2025)] [Output Gap Estimation Toolbox] [CEPR DP]
"Overnight Index Swaps and Monetary Policy Expectations in the US", 2024.
"The Information Content of News Announcements", 2019.
"Exchange Rate and Inflation under Weak Monetary Policy: Turkey verifies Theory" with Refet S. Gürkaynak and Sang Seok Lee, (2023), Economic Policy, Volume 38, Issue 115, July 2023.
[Working Paper] [CEPR DP] [Replication Files] [Media Brief] [Pre-typeset] [VoxEU] [Published Version]
"Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior?" with Refet S. Gürkaynak, A. Hakan Kara, and Sang Seok Lee, Journal of International Economics, Volume 130, May 2021.
[Working Paper] [NBER WP] [CESifo WP] [CFS WP] [CEPR DP] [Replication Files][Published Version]
"Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially-Measured News Surprises" with Refet S. Gürkaynak and Jonathan H. Wright, American Economic Review 2020, 110(12): 3871–3912
[Sample Code (version 2)] [Replication Files (version 2)] [Working Paper] [Appendix] [CEPR DP] [NBER WP] [VoxEU] [Published Version]
"Real Term Structure and New Keynesian Models", International Journal of Central Banking, Volume 16, Number 3, June 2020.
[Working Paper] [Appendix][Published Version]
"Do DSGE Models Forecast More Accurately Out-of-Sample than Reduced-Form Models?" with Refet S. Gürkaynak and Barbara Rossi. In: T.Fomby, L. Killian and A. Murphy (eds.), VAR Models in Macroeconomics - New Developments and Applications: Essays in Honor of Christopher A. Sims, Advances in Econometrics vol. 32, 2013, 27-80. [Paper]
"The political origin of financial market dislocations: How an amusement park developer's illiquidity turned into a credit market crisis" (with Sang Seok Lee)
[VoxEU]
"Türkiye'nin Enflasyon Tercihleri" (in Turkish) with Refet S. Gürkaynak, Sang Seok Lee, and Alp Şimşek, In: Asaf Savaş Akat and Seyfettin Gürsel (eds.) Çıkmaz Yol Dünden Yarın Türkiye Ekonomisi, 2023.
"News and Noise Shaping International Yield Curves" with Refet S. Gürkaynak, Mark Kerssenfischer and Jonathan H. Wright
"Ambiguity and Unconventional Monetary Policy" with Galip Kemal Ozhan
"Inflation Persistence and its Real Effects" with Gergely Ganics
"Persistence Risk and the Term Structure of Interest Rates" with Jean-Paul Renne
"Heterogeneous Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates at High Frequency" with Peter Hoerdahl and Dora Xia