"Quantitative Analysis of the Social Costs of Road Traffic Crashes Literature", 2021 (with Gursmeep Hundal and Peter Taniform). Forthcoming, Accident Analysis & Prevention
Abstract: Despite recent improvements in tackling road safety challenges, particularly in developed countries, road traffic crashes account for 1.35 million deaths annually and cost over 65 us$ billion. This paper reviews the existing socio-economic costs literature, highlights research gaps, and draws attention to the lack of analysis in developing countries, which account for 90% of the fatalities. We rely on both simple descriptive analyses and formal econometric analyses. Our descriptive results show an upward trend over the recent years, mostly in high and middle-income countries. The paper focuses on the differences in estimating the socio-economic costs of road traffic crashes using two popular methodologies, the willingness-to-pay (wtp) and the human capital (hc). Our econometric analysis shows that papers that use wtp tend to compute the impact as a percentage of gdp that is on average ̃1% higher than those that use the hc approach. Likewise, studies using the human capital method tend to underestimate the total socio-economic costs by a factor of two compared to the cost derived from the wtp approach; this gap then reduces substantially when accounting for population density, countries' income levels, and road safety outcomes. Further, the paper stresses the underreporting problem and the inexistence of a mechanism to reasonably account for it in socio-economic costs calculations. The paper concludes by advocating for more studies focusing on low and middle-income countries using a combination of common approaches with other valuation methods.
"Transport corridors and their wider economic benefits: A quantitative review of the literature", 2020. (With Mark Roberts, Martin Melecky, and Yan Xu). Journal of Regional Science, 60(2), March 2020, pp. 207–248.
“The world is not yet flat: Transport costs matter!”, 2018. (with Kristian Behrens and W. Mark Brown). The Review of Economics and Statistics, 100(4), October 2018, pp. 712–724. Featured in VOX-EU.
“An anatomy of the geographical concentration of Canadian manufacturing industries”, (with Kristian Behrens), Regional Science and Urban Economics 51, March 2015, pp. 47–69.
Abstract: In this paper, we use detailed micro-geographic data to document the location patterns of Canadian manufacturing industries and changes in those patterns during the first decade of 2000. Depending on industry classifications and years, 40 to 60% of industries are geographically localized, i.e., are spatially clustered relative to overall manufacturing. Although some industries are increasingly clustered, localization has generally decreased in Canada according to our measures. We further document the locational trends of small plants, young plants, and exporters. Their location patterns do not differ significantly from that of the other plants in their industries.
“Roads and the geography of economic activities in Mexico”, 2018. (with Harris Selod, Brian Blankespoor, and Rafael Guarduno).
Spatial and Sectoral Heterogeneity of Occupational Choice in Cameroon, 2018 (With Pierre Nguimkeu, Georgia State University).
Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between location, agglomeration, access to credit, informality, and productivity across cities and industries in Cameroon. Emphasizing the link between micro-foundations and the data, the paper develops and estimates a structural model of occupational choice in which heterogeneous agents choose between formal entrepreneurship, informal entrepreneurship, and non-entrepreneurial work. Their decision-making process is driven by institutional constraints such as entry costs, tax enforcement, and access to credit. The model predicts that agglomeration has a non-monotonic effect on formalization, and entrepreneurial profits increase with agglomeration effects. Estimating the model by the generalized method of moments, the paper finds that the returns to capital and labor are not uniform across sectors and cities. Manufacturing industries are highly constrained in capital and the elasticity of capital is higher in Yaoundé and Douala, whereas labor elasticity is higher in Kribi. Counterfactual simulations show that an increase in roads provision can have a substantial impact in terms of output, formalization, and productivity. A reduction in the current interest rate has a large and significant impact on formalization and no significant effect on business creation. Likewise, while the current tax rate is suboptimal for most cities, a tax reduction policy would have a much greater impact on formalization than on business creation. These effects differ substantially across cities and sectors, suggesting that those policy instruments could be implemented accordingly to support formalization and business creation.
"Rising Incomes and Demand for Infrastructure in Developing Countries", 2017 (With Stephane Straub, TSE; and Souleymane Soumahoro, The World Bank).
Abstract: The Demand for Infrastructure in Developing Countries: New Insights from Household Expenditure Data This work uses a series of repeated cross-sectional surveys describing household standards of living and consumption patterns in four developing countries (Bangladesh, India, Indonesia and Pakistan) to estimate households’ income elasticity of expenditures on infrastructure services and related durable acquisition in fours sectors (water, energy, transport, and ICT). It then estimates the impact of supply constraints on these elasticities using the extension of the Golden Quadrilateral highway system in India as a natural experiment.
“The Determinants of localization: A conditional distance-based approach”, 2015. (Paper link).
Abstract: Do pairs of plants with ‘close or similar’ input-output linkages, types of workers, and that use or exchange similar technology locate near one another in space? To answer these questions, I propose a new non-parametric approach to measuring the localization of ‘closely related’ multiple industries–i.e., a multidimensional way to assess co-agglomeration – in continuous space. More precisely, I combine the measurement approach of localization in continuous space with a co-agglomeration approach and then relate them to the degree to which industries share goods, people, and ideas. My results show that plants which belong to manufacturing industries with similar input-output linkages or workforces tend to locate near one another. I find little evidence that plants that share similar technologies cluster geographically.
Trade Costs, Prices, and Connectivity in Rwanda, 2021. (with William Ewane, Florence Kondylis and Maria Jones)
“Highways and Local Economic Development in Morocco”, 2021 .
"Nighttime Lights Firms and Employment : Evidence from Canada and Mexico", 2021 (With Robert Marty)
"Geospatial Impact Evaluation of the Iraq Transport Corridors", (Robert Marty)
"Completing the Road Network: Evidence from New Vehicular Bridges in Nepal", (with Wyatt Brooks and Kevin Donovan)
"Input-output and employment network structure in the Canadian Manufacturing" (with Kristian Behrens).
“Econometric analysis of Fiscal policy, expenditure composition, and growth in low-income countries”. (With Jean Pascal Nganou, The World Bank).
"Burkina Faso Poverty and Vulnerability analysis", 2016. (with Prospere Backiny-Yetna, Yele Maweki Batana, Cheikh Ibrahima Nokho, and Herve Guene).
“Industrial Clusters and Micro- and Small Light Manufacturing Enterprises in Africa: Findings from Country Case Studies.” (with Yutaka Yoshino, The World-Bank). 2009.
A Cross-Country Analysis of the link between Development and Governance Indicators. 2003. E.N.S.E.A. Series.